Quote from Nick on 29th May 2020, 9:34 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 29th May 2020

Here's a quick recap of Thursday's events:

• Stock markets mostly rose and the dollar advanced, gaining traction from optimism over reopening economies and a huge EU coronavirus recovery package, dealers said.
• Europe's bourses  vaulted higher after EU leaders unveiled a vast €750bn proposal to the European Parliament and member states.
• Asia leapt higher but Hong Kong failed to maintain early gains as investors fretted over a US decision to revoke the city's special status that could see it lose key privileges, bringing into doubt its future as a global financial hub.
• Another 2.12 million people filed for unemployment in the United States last week, pushing total layoffs since the start of the coronavirus crisis to more than 40 million, a level not seen since the Great Depression, the Labor Department said.

The S&P 500 Index has surged more than 35% since a low in mid-March amid efforts to reopen economies shut by the coronavirus pandemic and massive doses of monetary and fiscal stimulus. It’s still 10% below a record reached in mid-February.

Trump Turns

Trump said he’ll announce new U.S. policies on China on Friday, after the country passed a national security law curbing freedoms in Hong Kong. His top economic adviser said the U.S. would hold Beijing accountable. “We’ll be announcing what we’re doing tomorrow with respect to China. And we are not happy with China. We are not happy with what’s happened,” Trump told reporters on Thursday, in answer to a question about whether the U.S. would remain in the “phase one” trade deal he signed with Chinese officials in January. China isn't the only issue to draw the President's ire recently: He also signed an executive order that he said would limit the liability protections social-media companies enjoy after Twitter began selective fact checks of his tweets. Under current law, companies like Twitter and Facebook are protected for users’ posts. Meanwhile, U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab warned the government will open a path to citizenship for 300,000 Hong Kong residents unless China backs down on its planned security laws. [Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Asian stocks dropped Friday along with U.S. and European futures, and the yen and Treasuries climbed, ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned press conference to announce fresh steps on China. The dollar retreated.

Well we got the rise and dip play out yesterday across the board as US/China tensions reared their head again late in the day. The FTSE 100 managed to get the 6240 area late in the day, just below the level it spiked to in the night. Overnight this time we have drifted up after hitting the low of 6146 and S1 overnight. As such, we may well see a rise first thing to test the 30min red coral line (down trend locking in now) at 6212 and then a drop down to the 200ema support at 6131. We also now have 2 hour moving average resistance at 6198 in the short term so worth keeping an eye on this 6200 area for a reaction from the bears.

If the bulls can break above the 6212 level then yesterdays high at 6240, and the key fib level at 6246 is the next area to watch. Above this then the 6280 level that has been resistance all this week remains in play and should we get this high today then a short here is also worth a go.

The S&P has moved above the 3030 level nicely now but stalled at 3070 yesterday, though the bulls are defending the 3030 now (resistance becoming support) and if they can gain control then a rise towards 3130 remains possible. Thats said, there is 2 hour resistance now at 3052. 3014 is now the 200ema support on the 30min chart as well for today so watch that 3014 to 3052 range initially.

For the FTSE 100 bears, if they break 6130 then we likely get a drop down to 6100 and a test of S2. Below this and the 10 day Raff channel bottom at 6018 comes into view. That said, we have seen, more often than not, a bounce into the close of the US session on Friday over recent months and may well see the same again today.

I am expecting a test of that 30min coral to start with though at 6212. Good luck today and have a good weekend.

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