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Bears charge but 7640 7610 support today | 7667 7710 resistance | US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI

#1 · 5th April 2023, 8:30 am

Quote from Nick on 5th April 2023, 8:30 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th April 2023
Stocks struggled to make headway on Wednesday, the dollar nursed losses and bonds clung to gains, as signs of a slowing U.S. labour market made investors nervous about the economic outlook, while a bigger-than-expected rate hike lifted the kiwi dollar.
Asia trade was thinned by holidays in Hong Kong and China, leaving MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan faring little better than flat, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%.
Overnight a four-day winning streak for Wall Street indexes ended, with all three major indexes dropping, and interest rate expectations were dialled down after data showed U.S. job openings hit their lowest level in nearly two years in February.
A decent performance from the bears off the 7725 resistance level yesterday has seen the weakness crystallise at the 7630 area, which has held as support overnight. The 200ema is here and currently supporting things, but a break of this will likely see a move down to test S1 and the key fib at the 7609 level.
Meanwhile the bulls will be trying to fight back and push up towards, and past, the daily pivot at the 7667 level. As you would expect the 2h chart is pretty bearish currently, plus we have had a decent bullish performance from gold, with the break above 2000 finally happening yesterday. Is it front running? News of job cuts at McDonalds is also a bit concerning as usually being fairly recession proof......
Initially today I would like to see a rise toward that pivot area at 7667, but above this the 7710 level is the next key resistance area with R1 and the key fib here. Not sure they will be able to push that high today, and we also have USA news out at 15:00 with the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI, forecasted at 54.5.
7710 would also be a lower high compared to yesterday so if it did start to drop off there then it would give the bears the momentum in the short term. Watch for the pivot level initially at 7667.
Support wise, below the 7610 level the 7565 is S2 and just above the 10d Raff channel bottom at 7550. I would expect this area to hold if seen, as below this the bears would be aiming for 7468 which is the next key daily support. I don't expect it to get that low today though.
Despite the drop yesterday the daily chart is still relatively bullish. The 10d channel remains heading up, and the price has stayed above the 25ema as well. Seasonality continues to play out as well - see here
Good luck today.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th April 2023

Stocks struggled to make headway on Wednesday, the dollar nursed losses and bonds clung to gains, as signs of a slowing U.S. labour market made investors nervous about the economic outlook, while a bigger-than-expected rate hike lifted the kiwi dollar.

Asia trade was thinned by holidays in Hong Kong and China, leaving MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan faring little better than flat, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%.

Overnight a four-day winning streak for Wall Street indexes ended, with all three major indexes dropping, and interest rate expectations were dialled down after data showed U.S. job openings hit their lowest level in nearly two years in February.

A decent performance from the bears off the 7725 resistance level yesterday has seen the weakness crystallise at the 7630 area, which has held as support overnight. The 200ema is here and currently supporting things, but a break of this will likely see a move down to test S1 and the key fib at the 7609 level.

Meanwhile the bulls will be trying to fight back and push up towards, and past, the daily pivot at the 7667 level. As you would expect the 2h chart is pretty bearish currently, plus we have had a decent bullish performance from gold, with the break above 2000 finally happening yesterday. Is it front running? News of job cuts at McDonalds is also a bit concerning as usually being fairly recession proof......

Initially today I would like to see a rise toward that pivot area at 7667, but above this the 7710 level is the next key resistance area with R1 and the key fib here. Not sure they will be able to push that high today, and we also have USA news out at 15:00 with the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI, forecasted at 54.5.

7710 would also be a lower high compared to yesterday so if it did start to drop off there then it would give the bears the momentum in the short term. Watch for the pivot level initially at 7667.

Support wise, below the 7610 level the 7565 is S2 and just above the 10d Raff channel bottom at 7550. I would expect this area to hold if seen, as below this the bears would be aiming for 7468 which is the next key daily support. I don't expect it to get that low today though.

Despite the drop yesterday the daily chart is still relatively bullish. The 10d channel remains heading up, and the price has stayed above the 25ema as well. Seasonality continues to play out as well - see here

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates