Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionBears broke through | sell in May …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

Bears broke through | sell in May | 7350 7285 support | 7400 7422 7460 resistance | live trading room

#1 · 2nd May 2019, 9:40 am

Quote from Nick on 2nd May 2019, 9:40 am
2nd May 2019
A pullback in oil prices and sterling's rally dragged the FTSE 100 down to a one-month low yesterday afternoon. The bears finally managed to break below the 7400 support level to test the 7385, however the bulls were still nervous at that level and no buying ensued. The 7460 resistance level proved to be the strongest line of the day, with a drop from there as soon as it was tested. the bulls failed to hit 7475. Sell in May and go away kicked in early this month!
The closely-watched ISM manufacturing index slumped to its lowest level in more than two years in April after a sharp deceleration in new orders. Construction spending also unexpectedly declined 0.9pc month-on-month in March.
The pound neared $1.31 against the dollar amid signs of progress in cross-party talks between Labour and the Government. It also extended its gains versus the greenback following the afternoon's disappointing data from the US. Its rise has put pressure on the FTSE 100 big exporters with the index slipping 0.5pc to below 7,400 points.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
The daily RSI has now dropped right off and sits at 38 currently, having been up above 70 for most of April. After hitting 34 yesterday the overnight climb from the 7320 level has seen it move back up. As such, we have got away from the sightly overbought conditions that persisted for most of April. As you know we had the 7460 to 7475 as initial resistance for yesterday and dropped exactly off the bottom of that range.
With the drop we are at the bottom of the Raff channels on most indices now, so that may well have been a flushing exercise to get away from the high RSI/greed status. If so then the 7310/20 area may well hold as support for the moment, though the 2 hour chart has gone bearish as you would expect with resistance at 7398 to start with today. We also have a key fib, 200ema and R1 at 7417, so a back test of the 7400/25 area that had been decent support till yesterday is likely. If we do get a rise to there today I am thinking that building shorts around this area is worth a go, for a dip down towards the 7350 and lower area again.
[caption id="attachment_14767" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]
On the longer time frames I am still showing resistance at the 7460, 7529 and 7559 levels. Ergo, the bigger picture remains bearish for the moment. The fact that bears broke through the key 7385 level yesterday suggests that they have a bit more momentum now. That said we do of course have NFP tomorrow, and rumour has it that a US-China trade deal may be possible by next week, with reports indicating that there has been significant progress; however, the details still need to be worked out. Talking of the US, the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected and announced a ‘technical’ cut in the IOER; Chair Powell stated that he does not see the case for moving policy in either direction.
I still have 7285 showing as support and in fact we have S1 here for today. Whilst I don't think it will get that low today, if it did then a long here is worth a go. If we don't get that low then I am expecting the 7310ish area to hold as support if we were to dip. The ASX200 (Australia) wasn't quite as bearish as it could have been with the rest of Asia mixed as they returned from market holidays.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

2nd May 2019

A pullback in oil prices and sterling's rally dragged the FTSE 100 down to a one-month low yesterday afternoon. The bears finally managed to break below the 7400 support level to test the 7385, however the bulls were still nervous at that level and no buying ensued. The 7460 resistance level proved to be the strongest line of the day, with a drop from there as soon as it was tested. the bulls failed to hit 7475. Sell in May and go away kicked in early this month!

The closely-watched ISM manufacturing index slumped to its lowest level in more than two years in April after a sharp deceleration in new orders. Construction spending also unexpectedly declined 0.9pc month-on-month in March.

The pound neared $1.31 against the dollar amid signs of progress in cross-party talks between Labour and the Government. It also extended its gains versus the greenback following the afternoon's disappointing data from the US. Its rise has put pressure on the FTSE 100 big exporters with the index slipping 0.5pc to below 7,400 points.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

The daily RSI has now dropped right off and sits at 38 currently, having been up above 70 for most of April. After hitting 34 yesterday the overnight climb from the 7320 level has seen it move back up. As such, we have got away from the sightly overbought conditions that persisted for most of April. As you know we had the 7460 to 7475 as initial resistance for yesterday and dropped exactly off the bottom of that range.

With the drop we are at the bottom of the Raff channels on most indices now, so that may well have been a flushing exercise to get away from the high RSI/greed status. If so then the 7310/20 area may well hold as support for the moment, though the 2 hour chart has gone bearish as you would expect with resistance at 7398 to start with today. We also have a key fib, 200ema and R1 at 7417, so a back test of the 7400/25 area that had been decent support till yesterday is likely. If we do get a rise to there today I am thinking that building shorts around this area is worth a go, for a dip down towards the 7350 and lower area again.

[caption id="attachment_14767" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

On the longer time frames I am still showing resistance at the 7460, 7529 and 7559 levels. Ergo, the bigger picture remains bearish for the moment. The fact that bears broke through the key 7385 level yesterday suggests that they have a bit more momentum now. That said we do of course have NFP tomorrow, and rumour has it that a US-China trade deal may be possible by next week, with reports indicating that there has been significant progress; however, the details still need to be worked out. Talking of the US, the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected and announced a ‘technical’ cut in the IOER; Chair Powell stated that he does not see the case for moving policy in either direction.

I still have 7285 showing as support and in fact we have S1 here for today. Whilst I don't think it will get that low today, if it did then a long here is worth a go. If we don't get that low then I am expecting the 7310ish area to hold as support if we were to dip. The ASX200 (Australia) wasn't quite as bearish as it could have been with the rest of Asia mixed as they returned from market holidays.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates