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Bearish Sunday night but bulls fight back | New month money | 6480 6520 resistance | 6400 support

#1 · 1st February 2021, 10:16 am

Quote from Nick on 1st February 2021, 10:16 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st February 2021
Falls on the FTSE 100 on Friday wiped out its gains for 2021, with just half a dozen blue-chip risers. Continued vaccine tensions and fears for global growth continued to drag on sentiment.
US markets had their biggest weekly decline in three months as the turmoil continues. The S&P 500 index was down 2pc by early afternoon in New York, as traders' bids for heavily-shorted stocks have fueled speculation hedge funds would need to reduce their market exposure. Meanwhile, US consumer spending - which accounts for 2/3 of US economic activity - fell for a second straight month in December amid coronavirus restrictions and a temporary expiration of government-funded benefits for millions of unemployed Americans.

GameStop and AMC once again soared - by 63pc and 60pc respectively - as brokerages eased restrictions that had been imposed after hugely volatile swings in prices.
Silver Surge
Silver spiked at the week’s open, with futures topping $29 an ounce, as the the Reddit-inspired frenzy that roiled stock markets last week spills over into commodities. The spike came after retail sites were overwhelmed with demand for bars and coins on Sunday. Outlets including Apmex, the Walmart of precious metals products in North America, said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets open because of unprecedented consumption.
Recovery Undercut
China’s efforts to control the recent resurgence of Covid-19 are undercutting a recovery which has been one of the bright spots in the global economy. The first official data for January showed economic activity expanded at a much slower pace compared to December, with the services sector markedly weaker. Activity usually slows ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday which begins next week, but curbs on travel this year to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus mean many people won’t be able to return to their hometowns. That will limit spending on travel, restaurants and gifts.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks climbed Monday and U.S. equity futures reversed declines as concern receded over volatile retail trading and signs of an easing cash crunch in China aided sentiment. Silver futures surged.
S&P 500 contracts reversed an earlier drop of more than 1% to trade higher with European futures. Traders fretting about the implications of short-squeezes stirred up on internet forums helped push U.S. shares lower on Friday. Silver futures advanced 6% after the metal became the latest focus of such chatter.
Stocks in South Korea and Hong Kong outperformed. The onshore yuan slipped and Chinese stocks fluctuated after the People’s Bank of China injected funds in an effort to avoid a liquidity squeeze. The dollar edged lower and the yield on 10-year Treasuries ticked higher.
Global stocks retreated last week as retail trading caused havoc in some U.S. shares and a patchy vaccine rollout raised risks for the global recovery from the pandemic. Data showed factory activity across much of Asia continued to hold up in January even as China’s output showed signs of moderating.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Fridays decline continued apace on the futures Sunday night, but the bulls have fought back valiantly from the overnight lows - 6300 on the FTSE and 3665 on the S&P. For the latter the bulls need to get the price above the 3730 level now as we have the daily pivot here and then 3744 above that where we have 2 hour Hull moving average resistance. 3783 is the 2h coral as well.
Start of the new month so we could well see a kick up after a dip to start with. The Dax is on R1 to start with, and the FTSE may well want to retest the 6400 level. We have the 30m coral here so would be good to see this hold, otherwise we are looking at a slide down to the 6300 level again. The bearishness following the inauguration is gaining momentum and I still expect that to continue through February.
The bottom of the 10 day Raff is at 6280 for today and should the bears really go for it then this isn't out of the question, while the 20 day is lower at 6189. I wouldn't be surprised to see 6000 tested this month and the bigger picture even shows 5800 as being hit again. That 5500 to 5800 area would make a good long opportunity again though - End of Feb, early March time I am thinking.
For today though If the bulls do defend the 6400 level initially then a rise towards R1 at 6480 would play out well, then a test of the 30 min 200ema at 6520. 6510 is also the 2 hour coral (red - downtrending) but wouldnt be the first test so not the best. However, it coincides with R1 so may well see another reaction. 6603 is the 25ema on the daily and a new swing short entry area.
6430 is the 100 Hull MA resistance to start with so we may well get the initial drop from here. Will certainly be interesting to see of the 6400 level can hold initially. The bulls will of course be looking to break above 6430.
Reddit readers have turned their attention to silver again so far today and we have a decent gain on that to start with today. Might help pull gold up with it possibly too.
So mixed bag with volatility continuing. S&P needs to get above 3730, FTSE needs to get above 6430 and Dax 13612, for the bulls to get more upside.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st February 2021

Falls on the FTSE 100 on Friday wiped out its gains for 2021, with just half a dozen blue-chip risers. Continued vaccine tensions and fears for global growth continued to drag on sentiment.

US markets had their biggest weekly decline in three months as the turmoil continues. The S&P 500 index was down 2pc by early afternoon in New York, as traders' bids for heavily-shorted stocks have fueled speculation hedge funds would need to reduce their market exposure. Meanwhile, US consumer spending - which accounts for 2/3 of US economic activity - fell for a second straight month in December amid coronavirus restrictions and a temporary expiration of government-funded benefits for millions of unemployed Americans.

GameStop and AMC once again soared - by 63pc and 60pc respectively - as brokerages eased restrictions that had been imposed after hugely volatile swings in prices.

Silver Surge
Silver spiked at the week’s open, with futures topping $29 an ounce, as the the Reddit-inspired frenzy that roiled stock markets last week spills over into commodities. The spike came after retail sites were overwhelmed with demand for bars and coins on Sunday. Outlets including Apmex, the Walmart of precious metals products in North America, said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets open because of unprecedented consumption.

Recovery Undercut
China’s efforts to control the recent resurgence of Covid-19 are undercutting a recovery which has been one of the bright spots in the global economy. The first official data for January showed economic activity expanded at a much slower pace compared to December, with the services sector markedly weaker. Activity usually slows ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday which begins next week, but curbs on travel this year to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus mean many people won’t be able to return to their hometowns. That will limit spending on travel, restaurants and gifts.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks climbed Monday and U.S. equity futures reversed declines as concern receded over volatile retail trading and signs of an easing cash crunch in China aided sentiment. Silver futures surged.

S&P 500 contracts reversed an earlier drop of more than 1% to trade higher with European futures. Traders fretting about the implications of short-squeezes stirred up on internet forums helped push U.S. shares lower on Friday. Silver futures advanced 6% after the metal became the latest focus of such chatter.

Stocks in South Korea and Hong Kong outperformed. The onshore yuan slipped and Chinese stocks fluctuated after the People’s Bank of China injected funds in an effort to avoid a liquidity squeeze. The dollar edged lower and the yield on 10-year Treasuries ticked higher.

Global stocks retreated last week as retail trading caused havoc in some U.S. shares and a patchy vaccine rollout raised risks for the global recovery from the pandemic. Data showed factory activity across much of Asia continued to hold up in January even as China’s output showed signs of moderating.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Fridays decline continued apace on the futures Sunday night, but the bulls have fought back valiantly from the overnight lows - 6300 on the FTSE and 3665 on the S&P. For the latter the bulls need to get the price above the 3730 level now as we have the daily pivot here and then 3744 above that where we have 2 hour Hull moving average resistance. 3783 is the 2h coral as well.

Start of the new month so we could well see a kick up after a dip to start with. The Dax is on R1 to start with, and the FTSE may well want to retest the 6400 level. We have the 30m coral here so would be good to see this hold, otherwise we are looking at a slide down to the 6300 level again. The bearishness following the inauguration is gaining momentum and I still expect that to continue through February.

The bottom of the 10 day Raff is at 6280 for today and should the bears really go for it then this isn't out of the question, while the 20 day is lower at 6189. I wouldn't be surprised to see 6000 tested this month and the bigger picture even shows 5800 as being hit again. That 5500 to 5800 area would make a good long opportunity again though - End of Feb, early March time I am thinking.

For today though If the bulls do defend the 6400 level initially then a rise towards R1 at 6480 would play out well, then a test of the 30 min 200ema at 6520. 6510 is also the 2 hour coral (red - downtrending) but wouldnt be the first test so not the best. However, it coincides with R1 so may well see another reaction. 6603 is the 25ema on the daily and a new swing short entry area.

6430 is the 100 Hull MA resistance to start with so we may well get the initial drop from here. Will certainly be interesting to see of the 6400 level can hold initially. The bulls will of course be looking to break above 6430.

Reddit readers have turned their attention to silver again so far today and we have a decent gain on that to start with today. Might help pull gold up with it possibly too.

So mixed bag with volatility continuing. S&P needs to get above 3730, FTSE needs to get above 6430 and Dax 13612, for the bulls to get more upside.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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