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Bear Tuesday with 7220 7267 7305 resistance | 7160 7140 7093 support

#1 · 19th July 2022, 9:48 am

Quote from Nick on 19th July 2022, 9:48 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 closed positively, lifted by commodity stocks and an upbeat global mood. The index ended 0.9pc higher at 7,223 after rising as much as 1.5pc.
European markets trimmed some early gains after Russia's Gazprom declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer.
Asian shares were subdued Tuesday after Apple Inc.’s plans to slow hiring highlighted concerns that aggressive monetary tightening to tackle inflation portends an economic downturn.
An Asian equity gauge dipped, hampered by a drop in technology stocks in Hong Kong and a retreat in China amid rising Covid infections and deepening turmoil in the nation’s property sector.
Asian shares slipped on Tuesday, following overnight declines on Wall Street, and the dollar hovered below last week’s peak, but traders’ main focus was approaching central bank meetings and the early stages of the U.S. earnings season.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, fell 0.46%, walking back some of the previous day’s 1.8% gain, and heading back towards last week’s two-year low.
Still, in a sign markets were struggling to find a firm direction, U.S. S&P and Nasdaq futures each rose about 0.3% in early Asia trading, and Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8% after having been on holiday for Monday’s rally.
Markets are expecting a large 75 basis point interest rate hike at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, moving away from a flirtation with the chance of an enormous 100 basis point rise, though market pricing still indicates a 30% chance, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool.
The retreat from expectations of 100 basis points late last week helped shares to gain in the U.S. on Friday and Asia and Europe on Monday.
The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meet on Thursday, with the ECB widely expected to begin raising rates from their pandemic era lows with a 25 basis point hike, while little change is expected from the ultra dovish BOJ.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th July 2022
The bulls managed to push on early yesterday morning and we saw the Dax test the key EMA resistance yesterday at 13065 before dropping off, along with the S&P from 3906 and the FTSE100 testing R2 at 7267. The bears then reappeared to set up a possible bear Tuesday for today though we have some decent supports coming into play now.
The FTSE100 2h chart remains bullish with decent support to start with at the 7156 and 7140 levels, so keep an eye on these, though higher up we have the key fib and 30m 200ema at 7165ish aligning for initial support.
To start with I am thinking that we will get a rise to test the now red 30m coral at the 7220 area and then a possible drop off again from there. A lot will depend on the S&P500 and also the general mood as markets continue to fret about the size of the next round of rate hikes. Markets are expecting a large 75 basis point interest rate hike at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, moving away from a flirtation with the chance of an enormous 100 basis point rise.
If the bulls were able to break above the 7225 level then 7267 is the key for for today and aligns with yesterday's high so would likely get a reaction, and then above that we have that 7300 area again with both the red daily coral and the daily 200ema here.
For the bears, a break of the 7140 level (and bear in mind we have S1 here as well today) would likely see a slide towards S2 at 7093. Will it get that bearish today?
If the S&P500 defends the 3810 area then it should filter through into keeping the FTSE100 up as well and another push up later this week.
S&P500
I would like to see any dip down to the 3810 level defended as that would be a decent area for a bounce, and looking at the 2h chart we have positive support here. The bulls will of course be aiming to break above that 3905 level again, and that would open up a potential rise to the 3935 level where we have the top of the 10D raff channel. Below 3800 (S1 here) then 3765 is S2 and would probably the next key area for a bounce.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed positively, lifted by commodity stocks and an upbeat global mood. The index ended 0.9pc higher at 7,223 after rising as much as 1.5pc.

European markets trimmed some early gains after Russia's Gazprom declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer.

Asian shares were subdued Tuesday after Apple Inc.’s plans to slow hiring highlighted concerns that aggressive monetary tightening to tackle inflation portends an economic downturn.

An Asian equity gauge dipped, hampered by a drop in technology stocks in Hong Kong and a retreat in China amid rising Covid infections and deepening turmoil in the nation’s property sector.

Asian shares slipped on Tuesday, following overnight declines on Wall Street, and the dollar hovered below last week’s peak, but traders’ main focus was approaching central bank meetings and the early stages of the U.S. earnings season.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, fell 0.46%, walking back some of the previous day’s 1.8% gain, and heading back towards last week’s two-year low.

Still, in a sign markets were struggling to find a firm direction, U.S. S&P and Nasdaq futures each rose about 0.3% in early Asia trading, and Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8% after having been on holiday for Monday’s rally.

Markets are expecting a large 75 basis point interest rate hike at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, moving away from a flirtation with the chance of an enormous 100 basis point rise, though market pricing still indicates a 30% chance, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool.

The retreat from expectations of 100 basis points late last week helped shares to gain in the U.S. on Friday and Asia and Europe on Monday.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meet on Thursday, with the ECB widely expected to begin raising rates from their pandemic era lows with a 25 basis point hike, while little change is expected from the ultra dovish BOJ.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th July 2022

The bulls managed to push on early yesterday morning and we saw the Dax test the key EMA resistance yesterday at 13065 before dropping off, along with the S&P from 3906 and the FTSE100 testing R2 at 7267. The bears then reappeared to set up a possible bear Tuesday for today though we have some decent supports coming into play now.

The FTSE100 2h chart remains bullish with decent support to start with at the 7156 and 7140 levels, so keep an eye on these, though higher up we have the key fib and 30m 200ema at 7165ish aligning for initial support.

To start with I am thinking that we will get a rise to test the now red 30m coral at the 7220 area and then a possible drop off again from there. A lot will depend on the S&P500 and also the general mood as markets continue to fret about the size of the next round of rate hikes. Markets are expecting a large 75 basis point interest rate hike at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, moving away from a flirtation with the chance of an enormous 100 basis point rise.

If the bulls were able to break above the 7225 level then 7267 is the key for for today and aligns with yesterday's high so would likely get a reaction, and then above that we have that 7300 area again with both the red daily coral and the daily 200ema here.

For the bears, a break of the 7140 level (and bear in mind we have S1 here as well today) would likely see a slide towards S2 at 7093. Will it get that bearish today?

If the S&P500 defends the 3810 area then it should filter through into keeping the FTSE100 up as well and another push up later this week.

S&P500
I would like to see any dip down to the 3810 level defended as that would be a decent area for a bounce, and looking at the 2h chart we have positive support here. The bulls will of course be aiming to break above that 3905 level again, and that would open up a potential rise to the 3935 level where we have the top of the 10D raff channel. Below 3800 (S1 here) then 3765 is S2 and would probably the next key area for a bounce.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates