Quote from Nick on 23rd February 2021, 1:54 pm

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd February 2021

Businesses across the board generally welcomed the clarity Boris Johnson gave in the roadmap out of lockdown, but also urged that a lot more needs to be done to help ailing sectors. Industry bodies are urging the Government to focus on continuing to support businesses - via furlough and loan extensions - until restrictions are fully eased.

Separately on Monday, the pound slightly extended its world-beating rally, holding above $1.40 after breaking the threshold for the first time since 2018 at the end of last week.

Sterling stood at about $1.407 at the European close, having made bigger gains than any other major currency so far this year. It shrugged off Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s presentation of a roadmap for Britain’s exit from Covid-19 restrictions, with investors continuing to favour the UK thanks to the fast rollout of vaccines.

The slight rise in the pound was enough to keep the FTSE 100 just shy of flat as international earners felt forex pressure. But the blue-chip index recovered strongly from an early drop to close almost unchanged.

Tragic Milestone

A half-million Americans are now dead as a result of the novel coronavirus that first hit U.S. shores just a little more than a year ago. Global deaths related to Covid-19 have surpassed 2.46 million, with the U.S. leading all countries with more than twice the number recorded by the next closest, Brazil, according to Bloomberg’s virus tracker. Meanwhile new findings in the U.K. show a single vaccine dose provides a high level of protectionagainst infection, illness and death.

Hot Stuff

Commodities rose to their highest in almost eight years amid booming investor appetite for everything from oil to corn. Hedge funds have piled into what’s become the biggest bullish wager on the asset class in at least a decade, a collective bet that government stimulus plus near-zero interest rates will fuel demand, generate inflation and further weaken the U.S. dollar. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price movements for 23 raw materials, rose 1.6% on Monday to its highest since March 2013. The gauge has already gained 67% since reaching a four-year low in March. Copper lead the gains, surging above $9,000 a metric ton for the first time in nine years.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks advanced with U.S. equity futures Tuesday as investors focused on expectations for faster growth, and bond yields and commodities stabilized after their run-up on inflation concerns. The dollar dipped.

Stocks outperformed in Hong Kong and Australia. Japan is shut for a holiday. S&P 500 contracts climbed after fluctuating earlier. The index fell for a fifth day, its longest losing streak in a year. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled more than 2% as investors questioned the appeal of more expensive equities.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price movements for 23 raw materials, earlier rose to its highest since March 2013. Brent oil consolidated above $65 a barrel as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted prices could top $70 in coming months. WTI crude rose toward $63 a barrel.

Bonds steadied after a key part of the Treasury curve -- the gap between 5- and 30-year yields -- touched the highest level in more than six years. Cash Treasuries won’t trade in Asia because of the Japan holiday.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Initial resistance is at the 6642 level again which is where we are as I write this, and also just above R1 at 6632 and the 200ema on the 30m chart. As such we may well see an initial dip this morning. Slightly above here we have the red 2h coral line for resistance at 6653 and the bulls will be keen to break this as that then opens up a test of the daily resistance level at 6688.

With the rise yesterday from the 6545 level the 2 hour chart has gone bullish and has 6598 as support from the Hull moving average, and the bulls will certainly be keen to defend this. However if the bears were to break here, then we will likely see a slide down to that 6545 level again, and ultimately 6495 is back on the cards.

Should the bulls break above the 6688 level though then 6722 is the daily coral line and the next key level to watch, and also ties in with R3 for today. Will the market be that buoyant today following the announcements yesterday regarding lock down easing plans? Another thing in the bulls favour is that we have another decent dividend this week of 13 points (and 17 points next week) both of which may well help underpin some bullishness.

So, watching 6598ish for initial support though we do have the 25ema on the 30m just above this at 6618 so could see this hold. Certainly worth keeping an eye on anyway. 6545 and then 6495 below that 6600 level. Thinking a rise and dip today though and that 6688 level looks good for the short.

Good luck today.

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