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Another vote | another defeat | 7370 resistance | 7280 7260 support | trading analysis help chat room

#1 · 2nd April 2019, 10:19 am

Quote from Nick on 2nd April 2019, 10:19 am
2nd April 2019
German factories plunged deeper into contraction territory in March, slipping to a near seven-year low as the country's industrial slump worsens. Uncertainty around Brexit and the trade war, the car industry's woes and slowing global demand were blamed for an eighth consecutive month of decline and a third month of contraction. New orders suffer their steepest drop since 2009 and employment fell for the first time in three years as its manufacturers grapple with heightened uncertainty and slowing global growth.
IHS Markit's manufacturing PMI index dropped to a score of 44.1 in March from 47.6, the worst reading since the depths of the eurozone debt crisis in mid-2012. Any score above 50 indicates growth. The German manufacturing PMI index has now declined in 14 out of the last 15 months in a slump that has accelerated in the first quarter of 2019.
Germany's slump dragged down the wider eurozone reading to its lowest level in almost six years but British and Chinese factories rebounded last month. The UK's manufacturing sector enjoyed its strongest growth in 13 months, lifted by record stockpiling ahead of Brexit. However, economists warned that the boost could unwind again in the coming months.
The pound slipped as MPs reject all Brexit alternatives in the latest round of voting last night. MPs once again failed to agree on a way forward for Brexit on Monday as Theresa May prepared to use the threat of a long delay or a general election to persuade her party to back her deal. Parliament voted on four alternatives to Mrs May’s deal, including a customs union and a second referendum, without reaching a majority for any of the options on offer.
The Tories will now push Mrs May to pivot to a no deal Brexit, but the Prime Minister will hold a marathon five-hour session with her Cabinet on Tuesday in attempt to create unity around her EU Withdrawal Agreement. She will use Monday’s results to impress on ministers and backbench MPs her belief that her deal is the only way to avoid a worse outcome, such as a long delay, a general election or a customs union.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
For today I am thinking that we may see a rally up towards the 7373 resistance area and we infact have a cluster of resistance levels around this area as you can see from the list above. As such, the bulls might struggle to break this area initially. We will also see a double top with the 21st March high at this area. The pound dropped on the vote result yesterday but the FTSE remained fairly buoyant, seeing an overnight high of 7347. If the bulls were to break the 7380 level then we are probably still on track for that bigger picture resistance at the 7510 level that appeared on the models last week.
[caption id="attachment_14699" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]
Support wise today, there is the daily pivot at 7325 and we may see an initial hold of this first thing. Below this I have some much stronger support showing at the 7280 level where we have the 200ema on the 30min time frame, and also the key fib here for today. Below this then the 2 hour coral is green and currently at 7260 (and moving higher). I am not sure we will get that low today but if we do then this area is worth a long.
We are also nearing the top of the 10 day Raff channel again; today's channel top is also at the 7373 level. The bulls were not able to break above this yesterday and having tested the bottom on the 25th March, we have risen back pretty well. However, full crossings of this channel in short order (as the drop from 7370 was last week) usually don't see a break out above or below the channel.
So expecting a rise and dip today, in a mirror image of yesterday in fact. The Australian market saw a sharp reversal as rates remained unchanged but the rhetoric inferred an easing bias. We might see a bit of chop initially as the results of the vote last night are digested. Focus will start to shift towards the US jobs data on Friday.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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2nd April 2019

German factories plunged deeper into contraction territory in March, slipping to a near seven-year low as the country's industrial slump worsens. Uncertainty around Brexit and the trade war, the car industry's woes and slowing global demand were blamed for an eighth consecutive month of decline and a third month of contraction. New orders suffer their steepest drop since 2009 and employment fell for the first time in three years as its manufacturers grapple with heightened uncertainty and slowing global growth.

IHS Markit's manufacturing PMI index dropped to a score of 44.1 in March from 47.6, the worst reading since the depths of the eurozone debt crisis in mid-2012. Any score above 50 indicates growth. The German manufacturing PMI index has now declined in 14 out of the last 15 months in a slump that has accelerated in the first quarter of 2019.

Germany's slump dragged down the wider eurozone reading to its lowest level in almost six years but British and Chinese factories rebounded last month. The UK's manufacturing sector enjoyed its strongest growth in 13 months, lifted by record stockpiling ahead of Brexit. However, economists warned that the boost could unwind again in the coming months.

The pound slipped as MPs reject all Brexit alternatives in the latest round of voting last night. MPs once again failed to agree on a way forward for Brexit on Monday as Theresa May prepared to use the threat of a long delay or a general election to persuade her party to back her deal. Parliament voted on four alternatives to Mrs May’s deal, including a customs union and a second referendum, without reaching a majority for any of the options on offer.

The Tories will now push Mrs May to pivot to a no deal Brexit, but the Prime Minister will hold a marathon five-hour session with her Cabinet on Tuesday in attempt to create unity around her EU Withdrawal Agreement. She will use Monday’s results to impress on ministers and backbench MPs her belief that her deal is the only way to avoid a worse outcome, such as a long delay, a general election or a customs union.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

For today I am thinking that we may see a rally up towards the 7373 resistance area and we infact have a cluster of resistance levels around this area as you can see from the list above. As such, the bulls might struggle to break this area initially. We will also see a double top with the 21st March high at this area. The pound dropped on the vote result yesterday but the FTSE remained fairly buoyant, seeing an overnight high of 7347. If the bulls were to break the 7380 level then we are probably still on track for that bigger picture resistance at the 7510 level that appeared on the models last week.

[caption id="attachment_14699" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

Support wise today, there is the daily pivot at 7325 and we may see an initial hold of this first thing. Below this I have some much stronger support showing at the 7280 level where we have the 200ema on the 30min time frame, and also the key fib here for today. Below this then the 2 hour coral is green and currently at 7260 (and moving higher). I am not sure we will get that low today but if we do then this area is worth a long.

We are also nearing the top of the 10 day Raff channel again; today's channel top is also at the 7373 level. The bulls were not able to break above this yesterday and having tested the bottom on the 25th March, we have risen back pretty well. However, full crossings of this channel in short order (as the drop from 7370 was last week) usually don't see a break out above or below the channel.

So expecting a rise and dip today, in a mirror image of yesterday in fact. The Australian market saw a sharp reversal as rates remained unchanged but the rhetoric inferred an easing bias. We might see a bit of chop initially as the results of the vote last night are digested. Focus will start to shift towards the US jobs data on Friday.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates