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7444 resistance this morning with 7492 above | 7364 support | Triple witching | UK rate unchanged | Learn to trade

#1 · 21st June 2019, 11:04 am

Quote from Nick on 21st June 2019, 11:04 am
21st June 2019
US stock markets surged to a record high after the Federal Reserve signalled that it is poised to cut interest rates to prop up the economy. Investors cheered the US central bank’s shift in tone laying the groundwork for the first cut in borrowing costs in a decade as trade tensions darken the outlook for the world economy.
The S&P 500 index jumped as much as 1pc to hit an intraday record high of 2,959, as the price of gold leapt to a five-year high and government bond yields continued to tumble. The S&P then fell from that level having double topped with May's high.
On Wednesday evening, the Fed dropped its pledge to be “patient” with policy and vowed to “act as appropriate” to counter the slowdown taking hold. Markets now expect the Fed’s policymakers to cut rates at its next meeting in July.
Meanwhile, the UK economy ground to a standstill in the second quarter but rate-setters at the Bank of England resisted cutting interest rates at their latest meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee, headed by Mark Carney, said the risks to growth had increased as it slashed its second-quarter growth forecast. The Bank warned that trade tensions had “intensified” and the “likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has risen” since May.
The policymakers voted unanimously to leave interest rates at 0.75pc but maintained their stance that they would rise if the economy continued to expand in line with its projections. The Bank reiterated that rates would increase “at a gradual pace and to a limited extent”, adding that the economic outlook hinges on the outcome of Brexit. While the Bank appears ready to tighten monetary policy when the opportunity arises, central banks in the US and eurozone hinted they could go in the opposite direction this week. Both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank said they were ready to offer more stimulus if rising trade tensions continued to weigh on growth.
The Bank said that GDP “is now expected to be flat” in the second quarter after previously predicting a slowdown in growth to 0.2pc from a solid pace of 0.5pc in the first quarter. Inflation will fall below the Bank’s 2pc target later this year following a recent slide in oil prices.
‘Loose and Stupid’
Donald Trump suggested Iran's downing of a U.S. drone was a decision by a “loose and stupid” individual, a comment that may ease escalating tensions. The president said the Islamic Republic made “a very bad mistake” by shooting down the unmanned aircraft but declined to detail any potential response. The UN called for “maximum restraint” as Tehran and Washington disputed whether the drone was over international or Iranian waters.
Stocks, Oil Surge
Oil jumped the most this year on the drone attack, with WTI futures surging as much as 6.1%. Speculative traders who’d turned against crude recently are ready to pile back in, according to LPS Futures. Asian equity futures are flat to slightly higher after U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 opening at a record high. And the global bond rally marched on. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped below 2% for the first time since November 2016 as a shift toward easing global central bank policy and Iran tensions pushed investors toward havens. The dollar fell across the board, as the Norwegian krone and Swiss franc both gained more than 1%.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
The FTSE has been a bit lacklustre recently, not helped by a rudderless government, cable climbing from the 12520 area, and general malaise, the latest being poor retail data and a flat GDP. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0.75% yesterday, unsurprisingly. The bulls failed to reach the 7470 area yesterday, despite the US strength, with the rise failing at 7460. There is still resistance at 7493 which I am looking for, but thinking that today we may well stall at the 7442 area as we now have 2 hour chart resistance here. The daily chart does however remain bullish and has support at 7342 for the moment.
Should the 7442 level break then the next resistance levels of note are yesterday's high at 7461, then the 7493. There is also 7529 still showing on the daily charts but I am not sure we will reach that high on a Friday. We also have triple witching today at 10:10 as the various futures contracts roll over so expect some spikes around that time. It lasts for about 10 minutes.
[caption id="attachment_14890" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]
I have plotted the preferred route that I am thinking for today with the blue arrows, however if the bulls really defend S1 as they have on the futures so far (7404) then we may well see a rise to those higher resistance levels, and possibly the 7493. Whilst not in the trade plan if we do see this level then I will be shorting here.
We were rather unlucky with the S&P tagging the stop yesterday at 2958 as it then dropped to 2932, however, the movement does confirm that I am looking at the right resistance area, and that we may be on for a leg down towards 2893 now. Below that I have daily support at 2879. We may well then see a bounce around this area.
Further Tory leadership voting now leaves two - Boris and Hunt - with Boris still looking the likely winner.
Below the 7399 support level then 7365 is showing as decent support and may well see a bounce. The bulls will certainly be keen to try and keep the price above the 7400 level though so might not be done yet, and the fear/greed gauge has moved to neutral at 45/100. Gold is starting to really break out now too, but the bulls will need to hold the price above 1400. 1416 is resistance on that for now.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
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21st June 2019

US stock markets surged to a record high after the Federal Reserve signalled that it is poised to cut interest rates to prop up the economy. Investors cheered the US central bank’s shift in tone laying the groundwork for the first cut in borrowing costs in a decade as trade tensions darken the outlook for the world economy.

The S&P 500 index jumped as much as 1pc to hit an intraday record high of 2,959, as the price of gold leapt to a five-year high and government bond yields continued to tumble. The S&P then fell from that level having double topped with May's high.

On Wednesday evening, the Fed dropped its pledge to be “patient” with policy and vowed to “act as appropriate” to counter the slowdown taking hold. Markets now expect the Fed’s policymakers to cut rates at its next meeting in July.

Meanwhile, the UK economy ground to a standstill in the second quarter but rate-setters at the Bank of England resisted cutting interest rates at their latest meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee, headed by Mark Carney, said the risks to growth had increased as it slashed its second-quarter growth forecast. The Bank warned that trade tensions had “intensified” and the “likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has risen” since May.

The policymakers voted unanimously to leave interest rates at 0.75pc but maintained their stance that they would rise if the economy continued to expand in line with its projections. The Bank reiterated that rates would increase “at a gradual pace and to a limited extent”, adding that the economic outlook hinges on the outcome of Brexit. While the Bank appears ready to tighten monetary policy when the opportunity arises, central banks in the US and eurozone hinted they could go in the opposite direction this week. Both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank said they were ready to offer more stimulus if rising trade tensions continued to weigh on growth.

The Bank said that GDP “is now expected to be flat” in the second quarter after previously predicting a slowdown in growth to 0.2pc from a solid pace of 0.5pc in the first quarter. Inflation will fall below the Bank’s 2pc target later this year following a recent slide in oil prices.

‘Loose and Stupid’
Donald Trump suggested Iran's downing of a U.S. drone was a decision by a “loose and stupid” individual, a comment that may ease escalating tensions. The president said the Islamic Republic made “a very bad mistake” by shooting down the unmanned aircraft but declined to detail any potential response. The UN called for “maximum restraint” as Tehran and Washington disputed whether the drone was over international or Iranian waters.

Stocks, Oil Surge
Oil jumped the most this year on the drone attack, with WTI futures surging as much as 6.1%. Speculative traders who’d turned against crude recently are ready to pile back in, according to LPS Futures. Asian equity futures are flat to slightly higher after U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 opening at a record high. And the global bond rally marched on. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped below 2% for the first time since November 2016 as a shift toward easing global central bank policy and Iran tensions pushed investors toward havens. The dollar fell across the board, as the Norwegian krone and Swiss franc both gained more than 1%.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

The FTSE has been a bit lacklustre recently, not helped by a rudderless government, cable climbing from the 12520 area, and general malaise, the latest being poor retail data and a flat GDP. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0.75% yesterday, unsurprisingly. The bulls failed to reach the 7470 area yesterday, despite the US strength, with the rise failing at 7460. There is still resistance at 7493 which I am looking for, but thinking that today we may well stall at the 7442 area as we now have 2 hour chart resistance here. The daily chart does however remain bullish and has support at 7342 for the moment.

Should the 7442 level break then the next resistance levels of note are yesterday's high at 7461, then the 7493. There is also 7529 still showing on the daily charts but I am not sure we will reach that high on a Friday. We also have triple witching today at 10:10 as the various futures contracts roll over so expect some spikes around that time. It lasts for about 10 minutes.

[caption id="attachment_14890" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

I have plotted the preferred route that I am thinking for today with the blue arrows, however if the bulls really defend S1 as they have on the futures so far (7404) then we may well see a rise to those higher resistance levels, and possibly the 7493. Whilst not in the trade plan if we do see this level then I will be shorting here.

We were rather unlucky with the S&P tagging the stop yesterday at 2958 as it then dropped to 2932, however, the movement does confirm that I am looking at the right resistance area, and that we may be on for a leg down towards 2893 now. Below that I have daily support at 2879. We may well then see a bounce around this area.

Further Tory leadership voting now leaves two - Boris and Hunt - with Boris still looking the likely winner.

Below the 7399 support level then 7365 is showing as decent support and may well see a bounce. The bulls will certainly be keen to try and keep the price above the 7400 level though so might not be done yet, and the fear/greed gauge has moved to neutral at 45/100. Gold is starting to really break out now too, but the bulls will need to hold the price above 1400. 1416 is resistance on that for now.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates