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3rd November 2017
Today's discussion forum
Todays post https://www.hilsdentrading.com/boe-raises-0-5-7586-7605-resistance-learn-trade-analysis-help
Morning all.....I dumped my shorts this morning from 52 and 54 for a loss of 11 and 13 pts respectively......flipped to long and regained all my losses and a small gain.....I expect a break of 7600 tday.....could close nearer 7650 I think.....it's Friday.....Its not a day I want to be actively trading ....we are on the verge of a big breakout on Ftse to the upside is my opinion but I'm not trading it in case I'm wrong......Good day to be on the sidelines. Best of luck all....Icarus I'm really sorry you have had this awful experience......I have had it myself.....its a learning curve.... A month back I said I thought Dow was good for 23800 when it was well under 23,000 would I have traded it ...no.....but it seems to be a pretty good estimate so far....have a great day all...catch you next week.....
The strength of the US markets has been all the more remarkable given the strength of the dollar.
Personally I am not impressed with FTSEs response to pound weakness but I wouldnt short it.
What you wont do is often as important as your positive actions.
Attached chart shows critical support on which pound now rests, I intend to play the bounce or break when it happens.
Which may be this afternoon.
I reckon price will break down as UK seems to be experiencing low growth and coupled with its brexit problems and dithering BoE, I dont think the pound has much in the way of defences.
I fully expect another Soros style attack, but I wont play it until I see it.
Fully in cash just now but many markets resting on pivots and ready to go with the next move I see.
Quote from anstel on 3rd November 2017, 9:44 amMorning all.....I dumped my shorts this morning from 52 and 54 for a loss of 11 and 13 pts respectively......flipped to long and regained all my losses and a small gain.....I expect a break of 7600 tday.....could close nearer 7650 I think.....it's Friday.....Its not a day I want to be actively trading ....we are on the verge of a big breakout on Ftse to the upside is my opinion but I'm not trading it in case I'm wrong......Good day to be on the sidelines. Best of luck all....Icarus I'm really sorry you have had this awful experience......I have had it myself.....its a learning curve.... A month back I said I thought Dow was good for 23800 when it was well under 23,000 would I have traded it ...no.....but it seems to be a pretty good estimate so far....have a great day all...catch you next week.....
Thanks anstel.
@ Icarus
You hedging like a fiend?
I decided to stand on my positions yesterday, and pleased so far with the minor progress in the FTSE. I'd definitely agree that, despite the potential for further reductions in pound value, the perhaps isn't the necessary strength in the FTSE to make it the place to bet all your chips. S&p still looks rather constructive to me until told otherwise. I'm out of the DAX for now until a better entry comes along. Still long EURGBP and now in the blue. The addition yesterday morning has made it into a rather large position for me, so I'm considering trimming the size on strength to get it back into proportion.
On that point, what value of market position do you guys usually hold relative to account size?
@ cowboy
Agree US markets still look good - what if the dollar falls? Its at significant resistance right now although that may well change this afternoon.
position size - I like to run one position only, either half-size or all-in.
IMO anything else doesnt work and may amount to hedging - but why would you hedge a winner?
More cost-effective to either execute stop-losses or operate money-management principles.
Warren Buffet says make your bets big - anything else is just messing around.
Its all about the dollar this afternoon - a big shift today could set things in motion for a few weeks.
Only the US markets look almost immune to its movements.
Then again, the new chief has been specifically chosen because he is unlikely to deviate wildly from Ms Yellen's track, and it would seem plausible therefore that he won't wish to be seem to make a marked change particularly in the first few months of office. Will another positive number today alter the dot plot for the next couple of years? Doesn't seem likely...
A shock poor result on the other hand might upset the market. But I think it would be a shock all the same.
FTSE back at breakout point. Pound has made a dutiful pullback. Who sees it as a potential buy? I moved my stops up below the market this morning, so I'm out and tempted to dip a toe in now at a lower level.
Quote from Candlemaster on 3rd November 2017, 10:57 am@ Icarus
You hedging like a fiend?
Yes sir 🙂
Quote from Cowboy on 3rd November 2017, 1:41 pmFTSE back at breakout point. Pound has made a dutiful pullback. Who sees it as a potential buy? I moved my stops up below the market this morning, so I'm out and tempted to dip a toe in now at a lower level.
Failed break by the looks of it.. 7500 before 7600? Went long this morning but only managed 15 points. Short again now
nothing inspires just now except American stocks.
Annoying - had an order to short FTSE at 7585. And its dropped off at 7580 instead 🙁
@ Icarus
Good man I hope you dig yourself out and the markets turn in your favour soon.
Poor attempt by the pound to rally thus far today and gold has fallen to a support level, the strong dollar causing both. I fancy a punt here,looking to buy gold buy gold in pounds, 1/3 capital. 967 or below.
dull end to the week but dollar threatening break-out could make things more interesting next week.
Could there be a run on the pound?
A great weekend to one and all.