Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members
30th October 2017
Free discussion forum for today
2 noteworthy daily charts attached. the dollar daily which shows the shooting star in high probability fall area. and the gold piercing candles in high probability buy area. Both correspond but... Gold tallies with political upheaval story should it transpire in Catalonia but dollar doesnt as would expect dollar to rise if trouble in Spain.If there is trouble and investors buy the dollar might make it hard for gold to rise. A weak dollar in turn should strengthen the pound where the interest rate rise is clearly a foregone conclusion. Stronger pound should create headwind for FTSE. But I am fed up buying gold and watching it falter long before a challenge on 1300, so will prefer stocks esp given the time of year and will look to buy the US indices on weaker dollar as well as FTSE.
I wouldn't necessarily see those as contradictory. Rising dollar should equal falling gold, and vica versa. Small bearish candle reaction in the dollar, which may only indicate a short retracement before continuing to make higher highs and lows, as it has recently been doing. Lots of political risk in the near term, mostly around new fed choice and tax reform bills, so could go either way.
I'm still holding longs from last week in FTSE, DAX, Tech, Dow and S&P. Spread of risk. FTSE mildly negative. DAX did very well, tech flew, and Dow and S&P mildly positive. Obviously lots of rotation going on, which is healthy. The tech, as I said last week, looked very sidelined, and it came through on the right news.
Still considering whether to book profit, or ride out some short term volatility this week to preserve the favourable buy in prices. The exception is FTSE, which I'd dump quickly if it turned down.
Also holding long EURGBP which is underwater, but I'm not sure that the pound is due a big rise on a rate hike. Market fully priced in, and sees it as merely a reversal of the brexit cut. Lots more negative brexit news to come I think.
rising interest rate environment cant be good for gold either. probably best bet this week will be US stocks, agree ftse has struggled when conditions should have been favourable.
weaker dollar should impact dax, im hoping for a pullback in the nasdaq100 early this week to 6140 area which i will buy.
Looking for low 7400s this week and maybe even 23k on the Dow. FTSE being held above 7480-90 but once that pivot goes there's not much to stop it retesting last week's lows
If nothing else is doing, I might have a stab at gold in pounds, its currently 963 but 960 has been good support lately, so maybe a dip under 960 and rebound above would get me long gold in pounds.
Probably get punished but im all in ftse stop 7450 but might bail breach of 7476 as that really shouldnt happen in scenario I envisage and candlemaster is very quick to bail nowadays when it moves against him.Maybe due an attempt at a bull monday charge on US open? Hoping for assault on 7500 but this may well turn out to be an assault on my ass.
Afternoon chaps......wasn't going to comment but might as well.....think the potential interest rate is priced in....I'm long from 79 -81 area ....
Don't see any reason why we shouldn't see 7520 this week....
Main street will be shorting this week so expect a mighty squeeze....
7600 for ftse by thursday.
Range is 7480-500. Expect 7400 before 7540 given lower highs and lows in play and that the Dow has stopped advancing. We had a break down of the range last week which weakens the support
Closed 2/3 position at 7488, BE. CM never forgives failure to turn resistance into support and the action above 7500 was poor.
Tomorrow is another day.
Back pushing rather persistently at 7475... Stop below.
I decided this morning to raise stops close up on the DAX and US trades, and then closed some manually when the down started to look weak. Could have taken a few more points out of the tech, but there you go.
DAX long still in play, stop below 13200. As the Catalan problem slips into the background again, so I think will euro weakness, and as draghi's magic is forgottten. The important part of any central bankers message, when delivering hawkish policy, is seemingly to smooth it along with lots of dovish language. Carney may well follow this example on Thursday. Using the most recent example, the market ignored the fact that stimulus was being cut in half, as expected. It looked more to the comment that support would continue open-ended. I can't see why Carney would deliver more hawkish language on top of a rate rise. That would be suicidal. Higher yields meaning higher borrowing costs for the government, expectations of costlier mortgages, hurting consumer sentiment, and a stronger pound hurting businesses. And all for 3% inflation?
My thoughts Sterling pushes higher, thus pushing FTSE back below 7480. Not sure what the Medium term is looking like but would expect a test of 7430 soon enough. Added to my short on Friday at 7515. Average short from 7502. Daily has formed a nice parabola supporting a move down.