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2nd November 2017
Today's discussion thread.
Todays Post https://www.hilsdentrading.com/7450-support-7520-resistance-learn-trade-analysis-help
Very negative candles on stocks yesterday apart from the dax, and under normal circumstances would be looking to short something.
I have closed my gold position as part of risk management today for a decent profit considering the time-frame.
large long position in ftse from 7502, no stop to accommodate volatility, and hoping to get past the midday event relatively intact.
in fact I will not apply a stop to this position as any decent drop will simply look to buy again, and stay in stocks hopefully fora few months now.
Looking for pound weakness.
Good opportunity to trim longs and/or add to shorts here. Wider trend is turning down so makes sense to keep selling the rallies
Mixed messages depending upon which market you look at. S&P looks rather positive in the main, though there'd be nothing out of place for it to spend a little time basing around 2540+. Dax is doing whatever the US does, provided the euro doesn't interfere. FTSE is frankly a muddle, and has been for what seems an eternity. I really only feel inclined to be short towards the top of the range, and long at the bottom, otherwise better off out for a medium term trader IMHO. It has just recently made a higher high and a lower low on the 4hr, and returned to 7500. Doesn't know where it's going. That's why the US has been the place to be all year.
Quote from Cowboy on 2nd November 2017, 11:48 amMixed messages depending upon which market you look at. S&P looks rather positive in the main, though there'd be nothing out of place for it to spend a little time basing around 2540+. Dax is doing whatever the US does, provided the euro doesn't interfere. FTSE is frankly a muddle, and has been for what seems an eternity. I really only feel inclined to be short towards the top of the range, and long at the bottom, otherwise better off out for a medium term trader IMHO. It has just recently made a higher high and a lower low on the 4hr, and returned to 7500. Doesn't know where it's going. That's why the US has been the place to be all year.
I think SPX will go back to 2544 or maybe 2500 soon. Yesterday the US indices had quite a large gap up and it was fully retraced. FTSE should see 7400 before a break of 7550. It's annoying to trade though as it's just trendless. Have to constantly cash your profits or end up whipsawed.
BANK OF ENGLAND HIKES RATES BY 25BPS TO 0.50%, AS EXPECTED VOTE: 7-2 to hike
CM closes out at 7535 having got the pound fall right and ftse reaction right but disappointed with size of win. Would have held a larger rise.
@ cowboy
That currency position must be looking better
I cant be bothered waiting for reaction to carneys waffle, had enough excitement for one day.
Re-evaluation tonight.
Quote from Candlemaster on 2nd November 2017, 1:09 pmCM closes out at 7535 having got the pound fall right and ftse reaction right but disappointed with size of win. Would have held a larger rise.
Well done CM! They were never going to break 7550 even with a dovish hike
Cheers capital but I think the pound is looking at longer term weakness and therefore prefer longs and buying opportunities in ftse. Especialky heading into year-end. Gold in pounds might also be good. As may all assets denominated in pounds.
Thankfully, yes. Added another lump to my position this morning at 8770 which brought my break even down to 8900. Just back in from getting cows pregnant (artificially!) so will have to take a closer look. Long FTSE looking better too. No position in dax, but looks slightly softer as expected. It has taken it well though, which must be very constructive.
I see what MCG is saying about the negative US action yesterday. Worth not being complacent (as always).
But failure to rip through resistance following pound plunge was sufficient to return to cash and look to offload pounds into something another day.
@ cowboy
Might see fast recovery as euro may strengthen as fast as pound falls
Hope the eyeball muscle figure was good !
Minor skirmishes with cattle myself in the past.
Heading out now, would love to see stock markets correct at some point this month and set up a buying pivot for December. If I see a short opportunity on ftse wont hesitate but doubt it can fall significantly now.
Quote from Candlemaster on 2nd November 2017, 1:09 pmCM closes out at 7535 having got the pound fall right and ftse reaction right but disappointed with size of win. Would have held a larger rise.
Nice one CM. I bailed on a long before the news, just in case.
But before I go i see the news talking about one and done (rate rise)
If the BoE is dovish, the pound will fall and inflation will be imported, necessitating further interest rate rises.
So I reckon we will see pound weakness to end of year, but inflation figures will be closely watched and any sign of being over 2% TARGET (high probability IMO) and we could be into a much faster tightening cycle than is currently anticipated.
Quote from Candlemaster on 2nd November 2017, 2:11 pmBut before I go i see the news talking about one and done (rate rise)
If the BoE is dovish, the pound will fall and inflation will be imported, necessitating further interest rate rises.
So I reckon we will see pound weakness to end of year, but inflation figures will be closely watched and any sign of being over 2% TARGET (high probability IMO) and we could be into a much faster tightening cycle than is currently anticipated.
He says to expect two more rises by end of 19. Expects inflation to fall next year and wages to rise, so rate rise needed to prevent economy from overheating. Agh! Who does he think he's kidding? Overheating, indeed.
He's got that the wrong way around. Inflation, quite possibly. Wage inflation, less likely. Brexit still hanging around like a bad smell puts investment and growth back.
just seen Carney on the news where he basically said the BoE could move either way next time. What a fool.
Just watch the pound being attacked by the big funds now. Set fire to your new tenners they will be worthless by December.
All he had to say was slow and steady rate increases. Home-owners and businesses could have planned accordingly. The pound would have stiffened a bit.
What we got was an idiot contemplating a cut on the day of a raise and waffling about productivity - just watch the inflation we now import as the pound is torn to shreds.
Predict emergency RISE in rates by February.
Oh and Carney can we have our money back please. Pathetic.
Quote from Candlemaster on 2nd November 2017, 6:06 pmjust seen Carney on the news where he basically said the BoE could move either way next time. What a fool.
Just watch the pound being attacked by the big funds now. Set fire to your new tenners they will be worthless by December.
All he had to say was slow and steady rate increases. Home-owners and businesses could have planned accordingly. The pound would have stiffened a bit.
What we got was an idiot contemplating a cut on the day of a raise and waffling about productivity - just watch the inflation we now import as the pound is torn to shreds.
Predict emergency RISE in rates by February.
Oh and Carney can we have our money back please. Pathetic.
Agree... you said yesterday that this is what he'd do. I thought he might at least have been remotely competent and not talk down the pound. I can't imagine Yellen doing a press conference and the dollar collapsing. It's just bad commmuication. I'm not sure what to make of FTSE.. I think the S&P is about to have a 2% or so dip but if Sterling can't stabilise FTSE could be breaking out
Evening chaps,hope all doin well,closed my longs from Monday from 79 and 81 at 7526 and 7533 and I had another long from 76 that I placed on Tuesday I think when it looked awful that I closed at 7542....closed all these just after the rate news on the rally.....shut computer and took the dog out.......just shorted at the close at 52 and 54....... Not doing much now till next week.....have a good weekend all....
@ capital
Yes FTSE could easily break out here even if all other stocks are falling.
I might prefer to play gold here in pounds as possibly an easier option.
FTSE has been very tricky last month or so and I have become very uneasy playing it, even though it is my favourite instrument.
If you look at the pound today though, I think we could have expected 7600 on FTSE but nowhere near, so very wary of holding it just now.
Also I will be sitting out NFPR tomorrow, but I imagine it could induce further pound weakness.
I understand your feelings about today, but I've just had a look at the weekly charts in the interest of the wider perspective. I don't see it as a disaster at all. EURGBP is still a long way off its high, cable a long way off its low.
Perhaps we should forget about what was said and judge him by how the market sees it. All that has happened today is a retracement of one week's gains. And for that matter, the markets had rather over cooked the rate rise in the last five sessions.
It was only ever planned to be a reversal of the brexit cut, with options open to take another one if required. The government still needs to borrow cheaply for a long time to come, and will benefit from positive manufacturing and exports. Now really isn't the time to shaft employers with a strong pound. The middle road will do nicely.
I also wonder if I've been too hard on the FTSE. It's performance has been rubbish compared to other global markets, but on the weekly it is clear that it has consistently made higher lows, even within three quarters of sideways grind. Now nudging up against all time highs.
Quote from Cowboy on 2nd November 2017, 8:01 pmI understand your feelings about today, but I've just had a look at the weekly charts in the interest of the wider perspective. I don't see it as a disaster at all. EURGBP is still a long way off its high, cable a long way off its low.
Perhaps we should forget about what was said and judge him by how the market sees it. All that has happened today is a retracement of one week's gains. And for that matter, the markets had rather over cooked the rate rise in the last five sessions.
It was only ever planned to be a reversal of the brexit cut, with options open to take another one if required. The government still needs to borrow cheaply for a long time to come, and will benefit from positive manufacturing and exports. Now really isn't the time to shaft employers with a strong pound. The middle road will do nicely.
I also wonder if I've been too hard on the FTSE. It's performance has been rubbish compared to other global markets, but on the weekly it is clear that it has consistently made higher lows, even within three quarters of sideways grind. Now nudging up against all time highs.
FTSE looks like it's breaking out to me. If tomorrow is an up day then that weekly chart looks bullish. Doesn't fit with what I expected but that's how it looks, especially if 7550 becomes support. As we've seen with Dax and Dow it can get very aggressive when it breaks out