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27th October 2017
Quote from
Nick on 27th October 2017, 7:06 am
Discuss the markets today.
Discuss the markets today.
Glad I didnt short that bounce and just sitting back today with no interest in stocks either way, as its a strong bounce but right back into resistance so probably going nowhere.
My gold purchase from yesterday is in profit thanks to the plummeting pound so this could work out well if the pound continues to fall and gold bounces a bit. Or if the pound just tanks to test 1.30, it should fall further anyway as there is a double-bottom test in that area.
The dollar breakout will surely put the brakes on US stocks?
Glad I didnt short that bounce and just sitting back today with no interest in stocks either way, as its a strong bounce but right back into resistance so probably going nowhere.
My gold purchase from yesterday is in profit thanks to the plummeting pound so this could work out well if the pound continues to fall and gold bounces a bit. Or if the pound just tanks to test 1.30, it should fall further anyway as there is a double-bottom test in that area.
The dollar breakout will surely put the brakes on US stocks?
Quote from
Nick on 27th October 2017, 9:27 am
Have shorted at 7520 so could do with cable climbing!
Have shorted at 7520 so could do with cable climbing!
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 9:31 am
CM ... I thought you bought gold at 1277 because I remember thinking it was 1 above Nicks long at 1276.... So has the declining sterling made up for that descrepency?
CM ... I thought you bought gold at 1277 because I remember thinking it was 1 above Nicks long at 1276.... So has the declining sterling made up for that descrepency?
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 9:35 am
Discrepancy!
Discrepancy!
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 9:31 am
CM ... I thought you bought gold at 1277 because I remember thinking it was 1 above Nicks long at 1276.... So has the declining sterling made up for that descrepency?
I bought gold in pounds if you check back, not in dollars. But in dollars it was around 1277 which in pounds was 965. But I quoted dollars because only causes confusion if you start quoting in other currencies. I anticipated a dollar breakout / pound drop, and the way to play that was buying gold in pounds. As the pound fell more than gold, and that continues this morning, the value of gold in pounds goes up. In other words, as the pound drops it takes more of those increasingly worthless pounds to buy gold, even though gold is dropping too.
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 9:31 am
CM ... I thought you bought gold at 1277 because I remember thinking it was 1 above Nicks long at 1276.... So has the declining sterling made up for that descrepency?
I bought gold in pounds if you check back, not in dollars. But in dollars it was around 1277 which in pounds was 965. But I quoted dollars because only causes confusion if you start quoting in other currencies. I anticipated a dollar breakout / pound drop, and the way to play that was buying gold in pounds. As the pound fell more than gold, and that continues this morning, the value of gold in pounds goes up. In other words, as the pound drops it takes more of those increasingly worthless pounds to buy gold, even though gold is dropping too.
You see Anstel, if you traded in ETFs you have your eyes opened for you as you make a few mistakes with currency movements and suddenly realise that although you may have gone long or short a pair, there is more than a pair at work, as everything moves relative to the dollar.
Yesterday the dollar looked strong, and UK sales data was weak, so shorting GBP USD was looking good as it made it easier for BoE to leave interest rates unchanged next month, IMO, which always happens.
So buying xau gbp was my way of shorting gbp usd.
You see Anstel, if you traded in ETFs you have your eyes opened for you as you make a few mistakes with currency movements and suddenly realise that although you may have gone long or short a pair, there is more than a pair at work, as everything moves relative to the dollar.
Yesterday the dollar looked strong, and UK sales data was weak, so shorting GBP USD was looking good as it made it easier for BoE to leave interest rates unchanged next month, IMO, which always happens.
So buying xau gbp was my way of shorting gbp usd.
I bought gold at 965 in pounds yesterday currently its 969 and hoping it hits 975 if pound drops further this afternoon.
I bought gold at 965 in pounds yesterday currently its 969 and hoping it hits 975 if pound drops further this afternoon.
And obviously stop now set at BE for the much-loved free trade 🙂
And obviously stop now set at BE for the much-loved free trade 🙂
Hey Nick the 4 hour shows GBP punching through support!
Hey Nick the 4 hour shows GBP punching through support!
Gold 4 hr in good value area with nice 4 hr candle offering good RR even in dollars !
Gold 4 hr in good value area with nice 4 hr candle offering good RR even in dollars !
Quote from
Nick on 27th October 2017, 10:21 am
Hey Nick the 4 hour shows GBP punching through support!
Sods law!
Hey Nick the 4 hour shows GBP punching through support!
Sods law!
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 10:23 am
Interesting thanks CM...... cheers good luck....
Interesting thanks CM...... cheers good luck....
Quote from
Jack 2 on 27th October 2017, 10:37 am
Seeing Dax today I have no idea where to start. Looks like it finished already. As Dow and FTSE are set to rise, where the hell Dax will go? It is ahead already. I really hoped I would come to a dip to buy as it reached 13183 yesterday. But seeing 13236 I don't know what to do.
Yesterday I was not able to trade at all. Just gutted I could not trade yesterday.
23456 will fly today.
Seeing Dax today I have no idea where to start. Looks like it finished already. As Dow and FTSE are set to rise, where the hell Dax will go? It is ahead already. I really hoped I would come to a dip to buy as it reached 13183 yesterday. But seeing 13236 I don't know what to do.
Yesterday I was not able to trade at all. Just gutted I could not trade yesterday.
23456 will fly today.
Quote from
Cowboy on 27th October 2017, 10:50 am
I'm suspicious that Carney was covering the possibility of a hawkish ECB outcome by talking up a rate rise next week. They don't want a pound crash any more than they want a strong pound, probably happy with this 90p level. So now that the news is out and the euro has softened, I have to wonder if that takes pressure off the committee to raise, given that they won't prefer to have to pound strengthen much more?
I'm suspicious that Carney was covering the possibility of a hawkish ECB outcome by talking up a rate rise next week. They don't want a pound crash any more than they want a strong pound, probably happy with this 90p level. So now that the news is out and the euro has softened, I have to wonder if that takes pressure off the committee to raise, given that they won't prefer to have to pound strengthen much more?
Quote from
Nick on 27th October 2017, 10:21 am
Hey Nick the 4 hour shows GBP punching through support!
Sods law!
The only trade I made decent wedge on this week was FTSE short. 5 other trades all got off to great starts and finished up stopped out atound BE. A weird week.
Quote from
Nick on 27th October 2017, 10:21 am
Hey Nick the 4 hour shows GBP punching through support!
Sods law!
The only trade I made decent wedge on this week was FTSE short. 5 other trades all got off to great starts and finished up stopped out atound BE. A weird week.
Quote from
Cowboy on 27th October 2017, 10:50 am
I'm suspicious that Carney was covering the possibility of a hawkish ECB outcome by talking up a rate rise next week. They don't want a pound crash any more than they want a strong pound, probably happy with this 90p level. So now that the news is out and the euro has softened, I have to wonder if that takes pressure off the committee to raise, given that they won't prefer to have to pound strengthen much more?
Problem is the falling pound is inflationary, so if that continues pressure is on to increase rates.
Actually I thought they were out of the woods with retail sales data being so weak, ut the GBP reaction has now increased the odds of an increase next month IMO.
Wont that be fun? I wont have any positions open on the day, instead I shall look forward to the screaming and wailing from the press about mortgages and house-prices.
Might be bad for the economy but prices need to drop for yojng people anyway so IMO its a good thing.
Quote from
Cowboy on 27th October 2017, 10:50 am
I'm suspicious that Carney was covering the possibility of a hawkish ECB outcome by talking up a rate rise next week. They don't want a pound crash any more than they want a strong pound, probably happy with this 90p level. So now that the news is out and the euro has softened, I have to wonder if that takes pressure off the committee to raise, given that they won't prefer to have to pound strengthen much more?
Problem is the falling pound is inflationary, so if that continues pressure is on to increase rates.
Actually I thought they were out of the woods with retail sales data being so weak, ut the GBP reaction has now increased the odds of an increase next month IMO.
Wont that be fun? I wont have any positions open on the day, instead I shall look forward to the screaming and wailing from the press about mortgages and house-prices.
Might be bad for the economy but prices need to drop for yojng people anyway so IMO its a good thing.
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 10:23 am
Interesting thanks CM...... cheers good luck....
The etf I use for that is PHGP if you ever want to get rid of pounds. Physical not synthetic.
Quote from
anstel on 27th October 2017, 10:23 am
Interesting thanks CM...... cheers good luck....
The etf I use for that is PHGP if you ever want to get rid of pounds. Physical not synthetic.
I reckon markets wont listen to carney talking up the pound anymore that game should be over.
They will have to move next month the anticipation of which should lift the pound at some point next week.
I reckon markets wont listen to carney talking up the pound anymore that game should be over.
They will have to move next month the anticipation of which should lift the pound at some point next week.
Quote from
Cowboy on 27th October 2017, 12:24 pm
Last time I saw it in print, market was 80% for a rise anyway.
There once was a time when they voted 6:3 or 5:4 on rates. Nowadays it seems an entirely manufactured PR exercise, where the voting is cast to suit the master's desired outcome. We've draghi and bernanke to thank for that.
I understand your point about house prices, but if growth and jobs takes a knock, it won't help. Wage inflation is weak as it is.
My sales are very affected by export trade and the competitiveness of imports, so I'm a perennial pound bear! ;0)
Last time I saw it in print, market was 80% for a rise anyway.
There once was a time when they voted 6:3 or 5:4 on rates. Nowadays it seems an entirely manufactured PR exercise, where the voting is cast to suit the master's desired outcome. We've draghi and bernanke to thank for that.
I understand your point about house prices, but if growth and jobs takes a knock, it won't help. Wage inflation is weak as it is.
My sales are very affected by export trade and the competitiveness of imports, so I'm a perennial pound bear! ;0)
Closed my xau gbp trade for a small profit as got stopped out of too many at BE this week.
And its not moving up fast enough.
Fresh start next week.
Closed my xau gbp trade for a small profit as got stopped out of too many at BE this week.
And its not moving up fast enough.
Fresh start next week.
I should have bought the dax when I saw the dollar breaking out but in the moment stocks looked weak .... ah well......
I should have bought the dax when I saw the dollar breaking out but in the moment stocks looked weak .... ah well......
FTSE is very reticent. Other stock markets still look good but weak pound hasnt really injected anything.
Will be looking for short opportu ities again here next week.
FTSE is very reticent. Other stock markets still look good but weak pound hasnt really injected anything.
Will be looking for short opportu ities again here next week.
This gold daily in USD is an interesting chart which Im posting because my golf club has no slots this afternoon, the burgeoning population of grey golfers hogging all the tees.
normally I would look to buy the red line if I see a decent candle there, but there is a distinct H+S pattern in play so I reckon a close below the red line targets 1200 as indicated. But a decent candle and a move to 1270 next week might get me long.
Thats how fickle I am.
This gold daily in USD is an interesting chart which Im posting because my golf club has no slots this afternoon, the burgeoning population of grey golfers hogging all the tees.
normally I would look to buy the red line if I see a decent candle there, but there is a distinct H+S pattern in play so I reckon a close below the red line targets 1200 as indicated. But a decent candle and a move to 1270 next week might get me long.
Thats how fickle I am.
Quote from
Jack 2 on 27th October 2017, 2:36 pm
I don't understand why markets are falling? Everyone expected the rise isn't it? I was in good long 13225, it got to 40 and down. B/e then b/e but it's annoying. Expected the rise.
23456 didn't fly today cos it was rather predictable.
I don't understand why markets are falling? Everyone expected the rise isn't it? I was in good long 13225, it got to 40 and down. B/e then b/e but it's annoying. Expected the rise.
23456 didn't fly today cos it was rather predictable.
Catalonia going for it and the euro bounces? Tempted to buy gold again but only quarter stake. Problem is currency presumably euros.?
Catalonia going for it and the euro bounces? Tempted to buy gold again but only quarter stake. Problem is currency presumably euros.?
Quote from
Jack 2 on 27th October 2017, 3:42 pm
Catalonia should be part of Spain, I don't understand what they want.
Catalonia should be part of Spain, I don't understand what they want.
Long ftse 7502 no stop one third capital
Long ftse 7502 no stop one third capital
Quote from
roltrader on 27th October 2017, 4:33 pm
Any reason why the dow is not flying ??
Any reason why the dow is not flying ??
Strong dollar. Thats why I had a go at ftse. I think it might be regarded as a safe haven if trouble in spain. Strong dollar will keep the pound down and help ftse while making it hard for gold to take off.
Or am I just drunk?
Strong dollar. Thats why I had a go at ftse. I think it might be regarded as a safe haven if trouble in spain. Strong dollar will keep the pound down and help ftse while making it hard for gold to take off.
Or am I just drunk?
