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1st November 2017
Quote from
Nick on 1st November 2017, 9:24 am
Morning all. Here is todays discussion for the markets
Morning all. Here is todays discussion for the markets
Quote from
roltrader on 1st November 2017, 11:51 am
Long 00
Long 00
Quote from
Jack 2 on 1st November 2017, 11:54 am
Hi to everyone. I'm still full of cold and first time looked at charts today. I wonder if icarus is still holding on to his shorts and fully hedged. I hope to be back in the game next week.
Hi to everyone. I'm still full of cold and first time looked at charts today. I wonder if icarus is still holding on to his shorts and fully hedged. I hope to be back in the game next week.
Quote from
Nick on 1st November 2017, 12:43 pm
FTSE marching on the spot while the others scream off into the distance!
FTSE marching on the spot while the others scream off into the distance!
Quote from
roltrader on 1st November 2017, 12:49 pm
out @10....from sheer boredom
out @10....from sheer boredom
FTSE going nowhere due to pound stregth and fear of further pound strength. Wouldnt be surprised if we get hawkish language from Carney to spur it on more.
Gold and pound doing well, I hold gold in pounds so thats good.
only surprise is strength of dax considering EUR USD looks like it may bounce.
I hold funds in reserve to short the dax in euros at first sign of euro strength.
US markets still cannot be shorted.
Amen.
FTSE going nowhere due to pound stregth and fear of further pound strength. Wouldnt be surprised if we get hawkish language from Carney to spur it on more.
Gold and pound doing well, I hold gold in pounds so thats good.
only surprise is strength of dax considering EUR USD looks like it may bounce.
I hold funds in reserve to short the dax in euros at first sign of euro strength.
US markets still cannot be shorted.
Amen.
@ cowboy
How are you handling EUR GBP ?
@ cowboy
How are you handling EUR GBP ?
If Carney uses dovish language however I believe FTSE will explode to the upside, and thats where the risk sits.
So I will buy FTSE with stop under 7470 and probably hold a large position by tomorrow morning.
It will only take a small gap up to instantly remove all previous resistance.
If Carney uses dovish language however I believe FTSE will explode to the upside, and thats where the risk sits.
So I will buy FTSE with stop under 7470 and probably hold a large position by tomorrow morning.
It will only take a small gap up to instantly remove all previous resistance.
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 1st November 2017, 2:38 pm
I'm not expecting a dovish hike tomorrow. Carney is raising rates to try and control inflation. I think if anything they'd prefer that Sterling was a bit stronger and less volatile, probably somewhere around the $1.35 area. Sterling is the cause of the inflation in the first place so they need it to stabilise to get it under control. So expect them to say we're raising to 0.5% and after that it's data dependent. There's no benefit in saying we're doing one and done as if sterling slides back straight after then it's not achieving anything. GBP is in a bullish trend 50>100>200 DMA and all are upward sloping. So perfectly reasonable to expect it to continue to rally over time.
In terms of FTSE, I still see 7400 assuming Sterling doesn't collapse. Earnings reports generally aren't great. Plus US indices look stretched, and everytime we approach a new hundred point mark on S&P500 we correct. (2491-2417, 2401-2320, 2300-2270, 2194-2085 etc). Therefore think it's reasonable to expect a 2-3% dip from these levels before a year end rally, particularly as everyone is already talking about it. I see the catalyst as being slow progress on the tax reform, causing people to take some money off the table.
I'm not expecting a dovish hike tomorrow. Carney is raising rates to try and control inflation. I think if anything they'd prefer that Sterling was a bit stronger and less volatile, probably somewhere around the $1.35 area. Sterling is the cause of the inflation in the first place so they need it to stabilise to get it under control. So expect them to say we're raising to 0.5% and after that it's data dependent. There's no benefit in saying we're doing one and done as if sterling slides back straight after then it's not achieving anything. GBP is in a bullish trend 50>100>200 DMA and all are upward sloping. So perfectly reasonable to expect it to continue to rally over time.
In terms of FTSE, I still see 7400 assuming Sterling doesn't collapse. Earnings reports generally aren't great. Plus US indices look stretched, and everytime we approach a new hundred point mark on S&P500 we correct. (2491-2417, 2401-2320, 2300-2270, 2194-2085 etc). Therefore think it's reasonable to expect a 2-3% dip from these levels before a year end rally, particularly as everyone is already talking about it. I see the catalyst as being slow progress on the tax reform, causing people to take some money off the table.
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 1st November 2017, 2:39 pm
Plus to add, FTSE price action remains bearish. Opening gap ups being sold into and we are still trading below the previous highs. Can't see much reason for a break of 7550 on this leg, although I think new highs are possible by year end
Plus to add, FTSE price action remains bearish. Opening gap ups being sold into and we are still trading below the previous highs. Can't see much reason for a break of 7550 on this leg, although I think new highs are possible by year end
I agree he would like to see sterling stronger and in the past he has been able to talk it higher without doing anything else. But that game is over and he knows it. His problem is that any correction in UK house prices or poor sentiment therein will hit the economy hard.
Someone posted here recently that soothing words may be necessary to accompany tomorrows hike and I think they are right, purely because of the UKs reliance on housing balance sheet strength.
So I think FTSE rises tomorrow is a safer play than GBP USD short, and I reckon pound will not spike high for long and will finish the day lower.
For what thats worth.
I agree he would like to see sterling stronger and in the past he has been able to talk it higher without doing anything else. But that game is over and he knows it. His problem is that any correction in UK house prices or poor sentiment therein will hit the economy hard.
Someone posted here recently that soothing words may be necessary to accompany tomorrows hike and I think they are right, purely because of the UKs reliance on housing balance sheet strength.
So I think FTSE rises tomorrow is a safer play than GBP USD short, and I reckon pound will not spike high for long and will finish the day lower.
For what thats worth.
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 1st November 2017, 3:14 pm
Last times meeting formed a hammer and then we had the big rally. Think if they've communicated properly there shouldn't be much movement either way. I see dollar weakening on the tax reform delay. We all know that they won't be raising again after this anytime soon, but from their perspective they might as well leave it as an option on the table to support sterling
Last times meeting formed a hammer and then we had the big rally. Think if they've communicated properly there shouldn't be much movement either way. I see dollar weakening on the tax reform delay. We all know that they won't be raising again after this anytime soon, but from their perspective they might as well leave it as an option on the table to support sterling
my gold pound holding has just exploded higher as the pound falls and my remaining capital is long ftse 7502.
my gold pound holding has just exploded higher as the pound falls and my remaining capital is long ftse 7502.
Quote from
Cowboy on 1st November 2017, 4:42 pm
Hi candle master,
Cut stake back and hedged it on Monday. If it doesn't go well tomorrow, will just have to get out of long, or dump hedge if it reverses. On fairly notable support Vs EUR at the moment. Guess we'll see.
Biggest regret was not sitting on my dax long, and it was also a useful hedge against the EURGBP. Being long US still looks useful. Trump fed announcement coming up.
Hi candle master,
Cut stake back and hedged it on Monday. If it doesn't go well tomorrow, will just have to get out of long, or dump hedge if it reverses. On fairly notable support Vs EUR at the moment. Guess we'll see.
Biggest regret was not sitting on my dax long, and it was also a useful hedge against the EURGBP. Being long US still looks useful. Trump fed announcement coming up.
Thats correct it is right on major support and if it doesnt bounce from here its probably lookong at 85 next stop.
Worth holding to see if it can bounce.
As for dax....who saw that coming?
hopefully ftse can do the same tomorrow .
Thats correct it is right on major support and if it doesnt bounce from here its probably lookong at 85 next stop.
Worth holding to see if it can bounce.
As for dax....who saw that coming?
hopefully ftse can do the same tomorrow .
Quote from
Cowboy on 1st November 2017, 8:53 pm
If it happens to be a 'sell the fact', it could be a useful opportunity to stock up on foreign assets, particularly US equities. Gold might be ok, perhaps would have been better if this was happening in late spring though rather than now.
I do wonder if a reversing EURGBP would numb the progress in the dax to some extent? After today's price action I'm not keen on rushing into it in the event of a pound slide.
Hats off again to you on the ETFs. I do trade them in my SIPP/ISA, but find the pound makes buying international equities rather tricky. That's why I prefer to trade the futures directly to simplify the risks. But I appreciate your concerns about leverage. It must be treated with respect or it will bite your body parts off one by one.
Can I ask what your background in the markets is?
If it happens to be a 'sell the fact', it could be a useful opportunity to stock up on foreign assets, particularly US equities. Gold might be ok, perhaps would have been better if this was happening in late spring though rather than now.
I do wonder if a reversing EURGBP would numb the progress in the dax to some extent? After today's price action I'm not keen on rushing into it in the event of a pound slide.
Hats off again to you on the ETFs. I do trade them in my SIPP/ISA, but find the pound makes buying international equities rather tricky. That's why I prefer to trade the futures directly to simplify the risks. But I appreciate your concerns about leverage. It must be treated with respect or it will bite your body parts off one by one.
Can I ask what your background in the markets is?
no professional experience I just like managing my own money.
Hammer gives hope on EUR GBP!
You are dead right on international equities, few people realise the effect of currency moves on their non-pound denominated assets, using the futures definitely simplifies things but I personally dont like the leverage aspect so I dont use them.
Because I know fine if I score ten wins in a row on futures I will think I can walk on water and bet number 11 will wipe out the previous 10 winners!
So you either have to stick to trading pound-denominated markets with ETfs which I usually do, or get a headache trying to figure out the currency risks dealing in overseas assets and their associated currencies.
Hedged ETFs a waste of time as introduces more expenseand may in fact simply add to the risk.
no professional experience I just like managing my own money.
Hammer gives hope on EUR GBP!
You are dead right on international equities, few people realise the effect of currency moves on their non-pound denominated assets, using the futures definitely simplifies things but I personally dont like the leverage aspect so I dont use them.
Because I know fine if I score ten wins in a row on futures I will think I can walk on water and bet number 11 will wipe out the previous 10 winners!
So you either have to stick to trading pound-denominated markets with ETfs which I usually do, or get a headache trying to figure out the currency risks dealing in overseas assets and their associated currencies.
Hedged ETFs a waste of time as introduces more expenseand may in fact simply add to the risk.
