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18th December 2017

Todays discussion

Gains in FTSE limited by GBP bounce off 1.33

There should be very limited downside this week

If the pound could breach 1.33 FTSE will fly

Just closed my 7541 short at 7511.

Holding long from end of week.

Tech ave open 6398, dax 13060, s&p 2658, Dow 24406, but core positions are lower and added to them on the way up.  Stops at breakeven and unsure of how much rope to give this before trailing the stops up.  Very nice breakout in tech though, which had been left out in the cold lately and was looking like there was room for buyers to snap it up again.

 

Also, closed short cable at 13330 and opened long at 13320

Slightly annoying thing though is these weekend jumps result in an American gap up which has to be filled.  Perhaps I should see it as an opportunity, but it's hard to know when to come out of longs.

Looks like buy on the dips this week with 7490 pivot providing support now there's been a proper break above 7500. Once Xmas is done though, it's time to get short big for a correction. 7100 before a break above 7600 looks likely

Morning guys,something came up last week that I had to devote my full attention too.....held longs from 52...53......93...94.... And added some at 36.....came out of the lot on Friday last thing between 86...and 96 so in the end came out nicely.......Tday I'm long again from 11 12 and 14.... Good luck fellas...

Quote from Cowboy on 18th December 2017, 11:39 am

Holding long from end of week.

Tech ave open 6398, dax 13060, s&p 2658, Dow 24406, but core positions are lower and added to them on the way up.  Stops at breakeven and unsure of how much rope to give this before trailing the stops up.  Very nice breakout in tech though, which had been left out in the cold lately and was looking like there was room for buyers to snap it up again.

 

Hi Cowboy,never really spoke before but I almost commented a week or two back.....but then I thought I'd mind my own business......just my opinion so no harm in sharing....

i think  you have too many positions on too many markets and last time I read your posts closely they were all long........take it from me....if it all starts going pear shaped your are going to be extremely overexposed.....better to reel it in abit I would have thought....hope you don't mind the comment,good luck though...

I think cable is going to sell off and Ftse fly......just my opinion...

Quote from anstel on 18th December 2017, 12:36 pm

I think cable is going to sell off and Ftse fly......just my opinion...

Have to say on cable it looks like it's building a solid base at $1.33. Bigger picture it keeps making higher lows when it consolidates which is bullish. And if there's a half decent trade deal it will more than likely end up back at $1.45. That's definitely the most likely outcome especially given the UK is bending over backwards to accommodate. So shorting it is counter trend.. that's not to say that there won't be periodic volatility but it's probably going up. So that's going to weigh on FTSE on a relative basis

Quote from anstel on 18th December 2017, 12:32 pm
Quote from Cowboy on 18th December 2017, 11:39 am

Holding long from end of week.

Tech ave open 6398, dax 13060, s&p 2658, Dow 24406, but core positions are lower and added to them on the way up.  Stops at breakeven and unsure of how much rope to give this before trailing the stops up.  Very nice breakout in tech though, which had been left out in the cold lately and was looking like there was room for buyers to snap it up again.

 

Hi Cowboy,never really spoke before but I almost commented a week or two back.....but then I thought I'd mind my own business......just my opinion so no harm in sharing....

i think  you have too many positions on too many markets and last time I read your posts closely they were all long........take it from me....if it all starts going pear shaped your are going to be extremely overexposed.....better to reel it in abit I would have thought....hope you don't mind the comment,good luck though...

I agree re number of markets.. this isn't a comment against anything cowboy is doing but there are a lot of people who are long stocks right now and have forgotten what a drawdown looks like. This year has been a freak in terms of how shallow the dips have been. It has to be tax related there's no other obvious explanation so when you combine the fact that it's going to be passed this week and we have a fresh year starting with the new lower tax rates applying in the US and a market that is up massively in 18 months that's the perfect storm for some profit taking. It's still a bull market but normal corrections can be 10+%.. have to ask yourself if FTSE went to 6800 how would that make your account look. I suspect loads of people are going to blow up on that sort of move as they punt rather than trade and have no plan other than waiting for it to come back up when it goes down. When I read stuff being used as an excuse not to exit bad positions I cringe

Number of markets:

For investing its fine

For trading / market timing its less efficient but not unreasonable

Quote from Candlemaster on 18th December 2017, 1:11 pm

Number of markets:

For investing its fine

For trading / market timing its less efficient but not unreasonable

For investing it's preferable because of diversification.. but it's majorly distracting if you're trading as all that happens is you end up long or short on everything as it's almost impossible to be bullish one and bearish another at the same time, too confusing. So only works when all boats rising or falling which isn't the case most of the time as it's constant rotation

Or even worse.. do stuff like buy FTSE to hedge Dow shorts because it looks lower relatively. The last 6 months show how dangerous that can be!

Quote from Mcgcapital on 18th December 2017, 12:49 pm
Quote from anstel on 18th December 2017, 12:36 pm

I think cable is going to sell off and Ftse fly......just my opinion...

Have to say on cable it looks like it's building a solid base at $1.33. Bigger picture it keeps making higher lows when it consolidates which is bullish. And if there's a half decent trade deal it will more than likely end up back at $1.45. That's definitely the most likely outcome especially given the UK is bending over backwards to accommodate. So shorting it is counter trend.. that's not to say that there won't be periodic volatility but it's probably going up. So that's going to weigh on FTSE on a relative basis

It certainly has a lot of support around the 1.3315 area......I thought it was going to break lower on Friday last thing when it hit 1.3304 but it recovered....I think once it breaks 1.33 though...if it does?...it should tumble down 100-200 pips.....just have to see how it plays out as always..

Thanks for the comments guys.  Very fair.  I agree that it can create distraction and too many focal points. However, there is also a potential benefit in diversification here too, especially if currencies/commodities are included.  It spreads risk of one trade or market not working out.  Several smaller trades.

Regarding rotation and boats - it has been a year for the rising tide.  But if I had stuck purely in s&p, the upside would have been lower than having some tech and Dow in there too. Also, rotation can happen unexpectedly.  E.g. to be in only tech when it got knocked back a couple of weeks ago would have been disappointing. But having a finger in the industrials pie lowered the effect.  It's partly because I'm not able to devote lots of attention to trading that I want to spread the risk of rotation.

Cable has a red line around 133.  I'm taking this as a smallish bounce, but prepared to sell again because I see phase two as bringing more difficulties. It may well be resolved in the end, but would be disappointed if the government roll over that easily. Mind you, they made a poor effort at phase one.

Out of 5 of my longs at 41.5-41.8 and the last one at 43.8..... Good day tday :0)