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12 point dividend today | SP500 slides | 6716 6680 support | 6784 6821 resistance

#1 · 17th February 2021, 9:40 am

Quote from Nick on 17th February 2021, 9:40 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th February 2021
The bulls failed to really push much past 6792 yesterday and we got a slow drift down to jut above the 6720 support level. The S&P was weaker, dropping steadily to a low of 3920. Its held on overnight but not really done much.

Speculators have wagered a £1.3bn bet on the pound extending its surge towards $1.40, fuelling a bullish start to the year for sterling.
Bets on the pound have jumped to their highest level in almost a year as investors unwind shorts built up ahead of the end of the transition period, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The snapshot of bets made on the currency suggests confidence in sterling is beginning to flood back with some City analysts expecting sterling to reach $1.45 versus the dollar this year. Speculators have doubled their net long positions on sterling in a week, meaning more are betting on the currency to rise.
The pound was trading around $1.392 last night, up slightly on the day. Investors built up shorts expecting a pound slump last year but started to reverse them after a Brexit deal was reached. Confidence has also been boosted by the rapid vaccine rollout and receding fears of the Bank of England taking interest rates into negative territory.
Yields Surge
Treasury yields surged to the highest in a year, while U.S. stocks pulled back from records as investors weighed how the increase in yields could impact risk assets. Asian stocks looked set to slip. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries surged to 1.31%, the highest since February 2020, helping global bonds extend their worst start to a year since 2013. The dollar strengthened. Oil held above $60 a barrel in New York while gasoline futures surged as a deepening energy crisis in the U.S. crippled the petroleum industry. China remains shut for a week-long holiday and will reopen Thursday. Bitcoin broke through $50,000 for the first time before falling back.
Big Freeze
The energy crisis crippling the U.S. showed few signs of abating as blackouts left almost 5 million customers without electricity, while oil refineries and shale wells were shut during unprecedented freezing weather. Spot power prices in Texas hit the $9,000-per-megawatt-hour cap for a fourth straight day. Occidental Petroleum, the second-largest oil producer in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, told buyers it would be forced to curtail oil deliveries.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Treasury yields held near their highest in a year and global stocks edged back on Wednesday from a record as investors assessed the impact of a bond selloff on other assets. The dollar strengthened.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries dipped to around 1.30% after touching the highest since February 2020. Bonds in Australia and New Zealand tumbled. Asian equities were mixed, though South Korea underperformed. S&P 500 futures were flat after the gauge closed slightly lower on Tuesday. European equity contracts edged lower.
Elsewhere, oil fluctuated around $60 a barrel in New York amid a deepening energy crisis in the U.S. that has crippled the petroleum industry. China remains shut for a week-long holiday and will reopen Thursday. Bitcoin traded just below the $50,000 level.
The so-called reflation trade is powering assets tied to economic growth and price rises, including commodities and cyclical stocks, and pushing bond yields higher. Investors are also riding a wave of speculative euphoria from penny stocks to Bitcoin amid abundant policy support. But some are questioning whether the jump in yields could eventually weigh on riskier assets.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Was a bit weak on the S&P yesterday and the 3920 is now the key support that the bulls need to defend. It has held overnight but a break of that will likely see a slide down towards the 25ema on the daily at 3860 for today. If it holds then the bears may well reload at the 3950 level where we now have the 2 hour resistance levels and also coinciding with R1 and the key fib at 3955.
For the FTSE 100, we have nudged up overnight but we are just on the 30min coral resistance first thing at 6765, and then of more importance is R1 and the key fib level at 6783. I think if we get an initial rise to this level then we may well see some bears appear here as they may want to try and build on the bearish vibe from yesterday. The 2 hour chart has gone bearish too, and we are just trying to break above the resistance level on that at 6760 as well.
As I mentioned yesterday the daily coral is also red though the bulls are doing a good job of holding above that at the moment. With that being red it shows a downtrend so we could easily get bearish again soon. Don't fall in love with the upside as they say.
Resistance above the 6783 level is yesterday's at 6800 then 6833 above that. Thats also just above R2 at 6824, and then R3 at 6848. Will we get that high today though? Would need the S&P to break above the 3950 level I think for that happen.
Cable has continued to rise, nearing the 140 level. We may well see that rise start to have an effect on the FTSE 100, as the normal course of events is that when cable rises it tempers any FTSE bullishness.
For support today, we have the 6716 level as the first main support. S1 here. Below that the stronger support is at 6675 - we have the green 2 hour coral here, and also the 30m 200ema. As such, should we drop down to here then I think we may see this level hold. If not then the bears are going to get the upper hand for the next few sessions. S3 is at 6650 and then the 25ema on the daily at 6613 - with the recent rises the daily moving averages have gone bearish again after that drop down to 6300, and the bulls will be looking to defend an initial test of the 6613 level. A test soon after the crossing is actually good as it lends it more weight, so a dip down to there this week would fit quite well for some more upside next week. One last push from the bulls?
Good luck today, watch 6785 for resistance, 6716 and 6675 for support.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th February 2021

The bulls failed to really push much past 6792 yesterday and we got a slow drift down to jut above the 6720 support level. The S&P was weaker, dropping steadily to a low of 3920. Its held on overnight but not really done much.

Speculators have wagered a £1.3bn bet on the pound extending its surge towards $1.40, fuelling a bullish start to the year for sterling.
Bets on the pound have jumped to their highest level in almost a year as investors unwind shorts built up ahead of the end of the transition period, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The snapshot of bets made on the currency suggests confidence in sterling is beginning to flood back with some City analysts expecting sterling to reach $1.45 versus the dollar this year. Speculators have doubled their net long positions on sterling in a week, meaning more are betting on the currency to rise.

The pound was trading around $1.392 last night, up slightly on the day. Investors built up shorts expecting a pound slump last year but started to reverse them after a Brexit deal was reached. Confidence has also been boosted by the rapid vaccine rollout and receding fears of the Bank of England taking interest rates into negative territory.

Yields Surge

Treasury yields surged to the highest in a year, while U.S. stocks pulled back from records as investors weighed how the increase in yields could impact risk assets. Asian stocks looked set to slip. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries surged to 1.31%, the highest since February 2020, helping global bonds extend their worst start to a year since 2013. The dollar strengthened. Oil held above $60 a barrel in New York while gasoline futures surged as a deepening energy crisis in the U.S. crippled the petroleum industry. China remains shut for a week-long holiday and will reopen Thursday. Bitcoin broke through $50,000 for the first time before falling back.

Big Freeze

The energy crisis crippling the U.S. showed few signs of abating as blackouts left almost 5 million customers without electricity, while oil refineries and shale wells were shut during unprecedented freezing weather. Spot power prices in Texas hit the $9,000-per-megawatt-hour cap for a fourth straight day. Occidental Petroleum, the second-largest oil producer in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, told buyers it would be forced to curtail oil deliveries.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Treasury yields held near their highest in a year and global stocks edged back on Wednesday from a record as investors assessed the impact of a bond selloff on other assets. The dollar strengthened.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries dipped to around 1.30% after touching the highest since February 2020. Bonds in Australia and New Zealand tumbled. Asian equities were mixed, though South Korea underperformed. S&P 500 futures were flat after the gauge closed slightly lower on Tuesday. European equity contracts edged lower.

Elsewhere, oil fluctuated around $60 a barrel in New York amid a deepening energy crisis in the U.S. that has crippled the petroleum industry. China remains shut for a week-long holiday and will reopen Thursday. Bitcoin traded just below the $50,000 level.

The so-called reflation trade is powering assets tied to economic growth and price rises, including commodities and cyclical stocks, and pushing bond yields higher. Investors are also riding a wave of speculative euphoria from penny stocks to Bitcoin amid abundant policy support. But some are questioning whether the jump in yields could eventually weigh on riskier assets.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Was a bit weak on the S&P yesterday and the 3920 is now the key support that the bulls need to defend. It has held overnight but a break of that will likely see a slide down towards the 25ema on the daily at 3860 for today. If it holds then the bears may well reload at the 3950 level where we now have the 2 hour resistance levels and also coinciding with R1 and the key fib at 3955.

For the FTSE 100, we have nudged up overnight but we are just on the 30min coral resistance first thing at 6765, and then of more importance is R1 and the key fib level at 6783. I think if we get an initial rise to this level then we may well see some bears appear here as they may want to try and build on the bearish vibe from yesterday. The 2 hour chart has gone bearish too, and we are just trying to break above the resistance level on that at 6760 as well.

As I mentioned yesterday the daily coral is also red though the bulls are doing a good job of holding above that at the moment. With that being red it shows a downtrend so we could easily get bearish again soon. Don't fall in love with the upside as they say.

Resistance above the 6783 level is yesterday's at 6800 then 6833 above that. Thats also just above R2 at 6824, and then R3 at 6848. Will we get that high today though? Would need the S&P to break above the 3950 level I think for that happen.

Cable has continued to rise, nearing the 140 level. We may well see that rise start to have an effect on the FTSE 100, as the normal course of events is that when cable rises it tempers any FTSE bullishness.

For support today, we have the 6716 level as the first main support. S1 here. Below that the stronger support is at 6675 - we have the green 2 hour coral here, and also the 30m 200ema. As such, should we drop down to here then I think we may see this level hold. If not then the bears are going to get the upper hand for the next few sessions. S3 is at 6650 and then the 25ema on the daily at 6613 - with the recent rises the daily moving averages have gone bearish again after that drop down to 6300, and the bulls will be looking to defend an initial test of the 6613 level. A test soon after the crossing is actually good as it lends it more weight, so a dip down to there this week would fit quite well for some more upside next week. One last push from the bulls?

Good luck today, watch 6785 for resistance, 6716 and 6675 for support.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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