Dip and Rise | 14 point FTSE 100 dividend | FBI director James Comey fired

10th May 2017

The FTSE 100 was surprisingly bullish yesterday, rising to the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 7359 before dropping back from there. Overnight it tested the 7320 level but has climbed back again to the 7340 level. The S&P short we had at 2399 didn’t really do much till the end of the US session and now looks like its struggling to hold above the 2400 level. The drop was due to Donald Trump firing FBI director James Comey after he misled Senate over Hillary Clinton emails. Rumours of a cover up too…. The Vix also ticked up a fraction yesterday, having been making record lows. The Dax short worked well, though probably should have flipped to a long at the 12710 level when we closed! Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing!

The ASX200 had a pretty positive day on Wednesday, finding support at the key fib at 5816 and rising to the 5890 level.

We have a nearly 14 point dividend on the FTSE 100 today so bear that in mind for later. One that size is likely to bring the divi hunters out so I am expecting some buying to start just before 3pm to push the prices up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a bit of a dip and rise pattern today.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily Raff Channels
Daily Raff Channels

For today I am expecting a dip and rise day, though how far it might dip down from the 7340 area we are at as I write this remains to be seen. I have gone for what maybe a bit of an optimistic dip down to the fib level at 7290, but it may well only get as far as 7305 where we have S1, or maybe just above.

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  1. Added double size short from 50 this morning. Playing out perfectly so far. Should close around the 7300 level as per Nick’s note above

    1. Hi buddy,,that’s how the market gets you ,..you have a decent haul of points like from your short yday from 55 as I remember to 30 and then we think ohhh if I was bigger I would have made “x” so we put size on and that’s when it bites…good luck Icarus…

      1. Is 15 points a lot?! Most on here seen to trade in far too big a size. I think Jack doubled his account in 1 month recently if i remember rightly?! That isn’t trading that’s gambling and inevitably you will eventually blow your account.

        ‘The undeniable fact in this business is that virtually no one is prepared to grow slowly and that is why almost no one grows.’

        1. Hi….is 15 points a lot?…well it all depends on the way the market is at that point in time and whether you scalp for 5-10 pts or you are in a swing trade looking for 50-100 points or more…Generally speaking I would say in jan feb and mar this year 15pts was a move that could be capitalised on nicely as the daily ranges were not very big…but I have seen 1000point dips on the Dow with a 1000pt retrace in about 14 mins !!!! Everything else you mention I would totally agree with although sometimes it is worth using a sizeable position if you are confident in your ability to read the markets volatility….doesn’t always work though….best of luck….

  2. Hi all!
    I’m still smarting from the beating the dax gave me on friday…
    If I call it a ‘Si size loss’ some of you will know what I mean 🙂 (sorry Si :)(sorry me!)
    Feeling very tentative now and in fact have been for the last few weeks as things have been behaving somehow differently… I rely on correlations a lot and these have been off, so I feel like I’m flipping a coin.
    On the positive side, its making me get much more selective in my entries and play a bit of a longer timeframe (my average trade is usually 19mins). Unfortunately I don’t have that much confidence in my intraday swing game 🙂
    Hoping Oil, Gold and Dollar start acting a bit more predictably ! 😉
    GL all

    1. Hi Inoodle,

      Been a while….I’m still sore from US election night. I hope my costly lesson was worth it?


      1. Hey morko,
        Glad to see you’re still around! These big events do seem to cause serious damage from time to time… vaguely considering not trading Non Farm Payrolls…!

        I do pay for some expensive lessons from time to time! I need a risk manager 🙂

  3. Closed one FTSE short positions opened yesterday’s for + 25, had short on DOW too, made 45 but got hit by divi. Should have left it until this morning.

    My plan today small long on DOW at 20798

    long. In FTSE at 7325, divi hunters I think will rise it, also DOW may retrace up dragging FTSE with it.

    1. I think markets finally waking up to the fact everything isn’t as rosy as it seems. And of course Trump. FTSE is being stupid though. I think the opposite and US will fall even further this afternoon hopefully taking FTSE with it?

      1. Totally. My spx target of 78 remains intact. A fall in free to 7300 will not dampen the buying spirit which is excellent for the institutional seller

    1. Hey anstel, wasn’t expecting the market to fall without putting up a good fight anyway. We will see a reversal and it will be scary; -)

      1. Hi Icarus yeah you are right ….what goes up must come down :0)… The tricky bit is getting the timing right :0) best of luck buddy :0)

  4. Out at 75.3 for nearly 24 points …..I’m leaving a bit for the city boys so they can get their Porsches serviced :0)… I’m off to walk the dog and buy a choc ice :0) good luck all :0)

    1. Nice one anstel… starting to come off a bit – though I still don’t feel like shorting it… yet.

  5. 3 off 4 FTSE Longs closed.

    All Dow longs closed. Will start adding shorts now. Protecting for 7500 but will started adding small stakes tonight if still around 7370 mark.

    Just another ££££££ and I will be even !

  6. Thanks Nick.

    The time off has helped me absorb and learn…..it was going really well before but went in to heavy on US election the wrong way.

    So starting small again and rebuilding. Good to see some familiar folk still on here.

  7. I have had time to reflect on today’s trades and here’s what I think I did wrong:
    1. Overconfidence- every time I entered a trade I didn’t wait for the hourly candle to close and entered without confirmation
    2. Fooled around – Didn’t wait for my standard area to short which is usually a 78.6% retrace. There was a range of 7375-7400. Relied on the declining trend line only with false confidence in hindsight.
    3. Complacency- a good streak recently on asx and Dow made me complacent.
    4. Dividend- Despite Nick’s helpful reminder of the high dividend today, totally forgot about it. Yes again!!!

    In summary I did everything that I try to stop myself from doing. A lesson that comes back to me every now and then. Need to be more disciplined and patient.

    I am keeping my shorts open tonight and if we break 7400 I will close the positions. My preferred play is rise to 7400 and close at 7300 tomorrow.

    Trade safe my friends!

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