23rd April 2019
Whilst UK markets were closed yesterday, US stocks finished flat on Monday as gains for energy stocks, pushed higher by rising oil prices, were offset by weakness in real-estate-related stocks. The Dow slipped 0.18%, while the S&P 500 added 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.22%. The S&P 500 eked out a gain amid light volume as investors prepared for a deluge of earnings news. Oil jumped after the White House said it would scrap the Iran waivers. Energy shares rallied alongside crude prices, while real-estate companies slumped after sales of previously owned U.S. homes eased more than forecast in March. The dollar was steady as 10-year Treasury yields inched up.
The eurozone economy stumbled again at the start of the second quarter as its ailing manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month. The closely-watched purchasing managers’ index indicated that growth across the eurozone slowed to just above January’s five-year low. Businesses blamed the car industry’s continued weakness and rising worries over Brexit and the trade war for the lacklustre start to the second quarter. Although activity in the eurozone’s factories accelerated for the first time in nine months, the sector missed economists’ expectations to remain in contraction territory.
Oxford Economics economist Daniela Ordonez warned that the region has started the second quarter on a “challenging footing”, adding that the first acceleration in German factories in nine months suggests that the sector is “finally” stabilising.
Meanwhile, the US PMI slumped to its lowest level in almost three years as its businesses warned of a “marked” slowdown in new orders and demand. IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson said that the “malaise showed further signs of spreading beyond the factory sector”.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
Initially today we have some resistance at the 7488 level, however, based on the decent climb on Thursday from the 7440 level I am expecting to see this broken today and we test the next key level that we have been looking for at 7511. With R2 at 7514 today we may well see a stutter here, and a slight dip back, certainly to back test the 7488 area which should in theory become support now.
If the bulls really take charge today and push through the 7514 level then it will be worth flipping long as they will likely manage to take it up towards the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 7546, and then the daily resistance at 7561 above that. The charts still look bullish for the moment, as they have done for most of 2019 so far.
Support wise today, we have the 200ema on the 30min chart at 7469 and I am thinking that if we get an initial spike down to this area it should hold, and we also have Thursdays close price at 7460. A long here makes sense for the bulls to charge from, and we may well see a bullish bias today as oil has risen, and in the absence of any “bad” finance news over the weekend. The ASX200 had a bullish Tuesday and I am thinking that we will do the same – a delayed Bull Monday if you will!
After the extended break it can be wise to just be a bit more cautious first thing as the dust settles, and we also have some big hitter results out this week, mainly the Tech stocks and the European banks – that latter should give a good idea of the mood in Europe as there are more and more headlines about a European slow down/recession. We also have Q1 US GDP Friday.
So, whilst the 2 hour FTSE 100 chart has turned into weak bear this morning, I am favouring some further upside as I think that the 7510 and possibly the 7560 area will be tested. Good luck today.
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