Technical analysis for 17th October 2025
Well the bears have wrestled control for the time being, helped by trade wars reigniting, US regional banks flashing a red warning, and the bulls giving up at 9600!
- Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral
- Likely scenario: Early weakness toward 9,300–9,310, followed by a potential intraday bounce.
- If 9,305 holds, expect a modest rebound back to 9,380–9,400 (pivot retest).
- If 9,300 breaks decisively, downside opens to 9,250 (S3 D).
Initially we are starting the day in the negative, with the 9305-9323 support zone in play, which is the S1 to key fib region. As such, we could see an early rise towards the 9380 area where we would test the daily pivot and the red 30m coral. The bears will be looking to short this area for a push lower ahead of the weekend and we may well see a generally negative session, with a reluctance to hold longs over the weekend in case something kicks off on the trade front!
The 2h chart has gone negative as you'd expect and has Hull MA resistance at the 9395 level and falling, which lends weight to the daily pivot level holding as resistance today at the 9390 level. The bears have broken below the longer term 20d Raff channel now as well, and we have the bottom of the 10d in play at 9280 now.
If the bulls were to break above 9400 today then 9420 is R1 and the 30m 200ema, though that does feel a big ask. Above that then 9447 is the key fib and worth a short if seen.
Generally therefore it's looking like a rise and dip, but be a bit more cautious today as it's Friday and the backdrop is a bit volatile. A good day to do lower stakes and generally be a bit more risk off.
For the DAX40 its just on key support at 23933 as I write this with the S1 and key fib both here, and could be a springboard for an initial push up towards the 24000 and then 24110 daily pivot level. The 2h chart is also negative and has Hull MA resistance at 24090 and with the red 30m coral and the daily pivot also in this area then we may well see the bears reappear here to target the 23933 level again.
With this dip across the board it is resetting all the daily RSI's still and could just be a small pullback in the overall bullish trend and gearing up for the year end pump. Gold's relentless bullishness has been front running this so keep an eye on that for levelling off or start to pullback.
The S&P500 may also put in a rise and dip with a test of the Hull MA at 6640 resistance. That is just above the 6635 daily pivot and red 30m coral so I would like to see a drop off from this to target the 6561 S1 level. Above that then look for the 6678 R1 level though that feels a big ask ahead. of the weekend.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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