Technical analysis for 17th December 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- Bullish Bias (Moderate)
- Status:
- Holding daily pivot
- Inside a rising daily channel
- EMAs turning up on intraday charts
- Bias:
- Buy pullbacks / buy breakouts
- FTSE remains the most stable & defensive of the three
- Today’s Role:
- Likely grinder higher
- Less volatile than DAX & S&P
- Invalidation:
- Below 9,660 → bias neutral
- Below 9,620 → bearish rotation
- Summary
- Bias: Bullish while above 9,690
- Best trades: Buy pullbacks or breakout above 9,740
- Avoid shorts unless rejecting 9,800+
- Expected range today: 9,660 → 9,805
S&P500 Bias
- Bullish but Conditional
- Status:
- Holding structure
- Above key short-term averages
- RSI neutral → room to move
- Bias:
- Bullish above US session support
- Needs US cash session confirmation
- Key Note:
- S&P direction will decide if Europe extends or stalls
- If S&P breaks up → FTSE & DAX follow
- If S&P fades → FTSE likely ranges, DAX pulls back
DAX40 Bias
- Bullish Bias (Stronger than FTSE)
- Status:
- Strong relative strength
- Buyers defending prior breakout zones
- Volatility expanding slightly → movement expected
- Bias:
- Trend continuation preferred
- Best index today for momentum trades
- Behaviour Expectation:
- Likely to lead Europe
- Pullbacks shallow if trend holds
- Risk:
- Fast moves both ways — stops must be respected
It's looking like the bulls will manage to retrace most of yesterdays decline today on the FTSE100, and the 9660 support level has held well. Initially the 9740 level is the key resistance and if the bulls can break above this then we have a pretty high chance of a rise towards the 9800 level. With just a week to go till Christmas Eve we may well start to see the Santa Rally kick in again. The FTSE100 will be helped by the positive inflation news out this morning, showing its dropped slightly to 3.2% from 3.6% previously and below expectations.
With the drop yesterday the 2h chart is bearish, but with the Hull MA at 9725 and already moved above that then I expect it will swing back to a bullish stance later today/tomorrow. Both the Raff channels are now heading up and the top of the 10d Raff is 9775 and likely to be seen today - also just above the recent high. The more that 9770 area is tested the more likely it is to break. Keep an eye on that R1 at 9740 initially and if it breaks early on it will be worth longing the break.
Support is at the daily pivot 9697, and if the bears were to regain control and break below this then a slide down towards the S1 and key fib at 9626 could materialise, but I am more inclined to go with the 9700 area holding as support. The S&P500 also looks set for a bullish rise and a hold of the daily pivot at 6792 would bode well for a rise towards the 6830 level initially, with 6863 above that.
The DAX40 also looks like a hold of the daily pivot at the 24100 area for a rise to test the key fib at 24253 - worth a short off this though if it holds as resistance as well as a long of the pivot today. If the bears were to break the 24100 level then look for a slide down to the 24010 S1 level and a defence of the 24000 round number.
Generally I am thinking that buying the dips on all three markets is the play for today as it's all looking bullish to start with.
Good luck today,
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