Technical analysis for 11th November 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- Bias: Bullish-to-Cautiously Bullish
- Trend Context: Strong upward momentum within a clear ascending channel.
The FTSE has broken above the previous resistance near 9,800 and is now testing the R1 zone at 9,885. Momentum remains positive, though we may see early-session pullbacks toward 9,820–9,805 before buyers re-enter. The next key test is R2 at 9,926 — a break above could open a path toward the psychological 10,000 mark.
Structure:
- Strong overnight bullish channel, though price has paused near R1 and is slightly flattening in early London hours.
Moving Averages:
- 10 EMA (blue) and 25 EMA (orange) remain aligned bullishly, though 10 EMA is flattening — a sign of short-term exhaustion.
- Pivot Zone (9,805) sits right on the lower support of the short-term uptrend channel, which could attract dip buyers.
- RSI Divergence: None significant — momentum cooling but still healthy.
Intraday Bias:
- Bullish above 9,820
- Cautious / range-bound between 9,800–9,880
- Bearish only if below 9,780
S&P500 Bias
- Market Bias: Mildly Bullish with Caution
- Why:
- Analyst commentary describes recent selling as a “speed-bump” rather than the start of a major correction.
- Forward earnings remain positive (≈ +11.6% for full year) though valuations are elevated.
- Short-term oversold signals suggest potential for a bounce.
- Interpretation & Trade Focus:
- The trend remains upward → preferred strategy buy dips, not aggressive breakout chasing.
- Support zones become critical; if they fail the bias may shift more neutral.
- Upside remains, but risk/reward needs balance given higher valuations and moderate momentum.
DAX40 Bias
- Market Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish
- Why:
- Technical setups show the DAX rallying above the 50-day EMA, signalling potential for continuation.
- Forecasts remain bullish though tempered by macro risks in Germany’s industrial economy.
- Interpretation & Trade Focus:
- Strategy: “Buy corrective dips” while trend remains intact.
- Break above resistance would enhance bullish stance; break below support would reduce conviction.
- Avoid chasing overly aggressive upside without confirmation.
I am thinking that we may well see a bit of a drop off the R1 level initially to test the daily pivot at 9805 and another test of the Hull MA on the 2h chart here. A bit of profit taking after the out of hours rise would make sense and with R1 at the 9885 level it would be a decent spot. Above this then look for the daily resistance at 9910 and possibly R2 at 9926 today. Interestingly, despite the bullishness to start the week the 10d Raff channel has levelled off a bit, though the Santa Rally from 9300 is certainly playing out well so far! We even have R3 at 10006 for today! Imagine the headlines if the FTSE100 tests 10000 and no doubt Rachel will be using it to try and show she is doing a marvellous job with the economy.....
Below the 9805 pivot then we could slide as low at 9750 and with a few decent supports here I would like to see this hold, namely the 30m 200ema, S1 and key fib.
On the UK news front we have employment data just out showing a weakening labour market. The number of people on payroll is falling, with revised tax data now showing falls in most of the last 12 months. Meanwhile the unemployment rate is up in the latest quarter to a post pandemic high. The number of job vacancies, however, remains broadly unchanged. Wage growth in the private sector slowed further, but we continue to see stronger public sector pay growth, reflecting some pay rises being awarded earlier than they were last year.
S&P500
An initial test of the R1 and key fib resistance at the 6860 area would work well today, before a slide down to the 6785 support level where we have S1 and the 200ema, though below this the 2h support is at 6750 with both the Hull and Coral in this area. As such should it slide that low I would like to see that hold for a bounce, though I am thinking that we may well see a bear Tuesday play out today, given yesterdays bullish rise.
DAX40
Similar here with a possible slide to test the 23850 key fib if the bears can break the daily pivot at the 24000 level. The bulls of course will be looking to defend this and push for the 24173 key fib, and 24194 R1 levels. The daily chart remains bearish though it's now weakened given the price is now above the 25ema (the level we dropped from on Thursday, 24100) though the 2h chart is now bullish and has support from the Hull MA at 23899 and then the coral at 23810.
Good luck today.
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