Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 21st February 2025
A bearish drift down to the 8650 level yesterday which has held overnight, however the bears will be looking to push down towards the 8615 area where we have a cluster of supports for today. Retail sales data has just come out which shows a decent uptick for January which the bulls will be relieved about. The main event today though is the various USA and UK PMIs (and also expiry at 10:10 this morning). The UK ones are out at 0930 sp expect some volatility then, while the USA ones are released at 1445.
For today I am thinking that we will see the bulls defend the 8650 to start with and a rise towards the daily pivot at the 8672 level will be the first move of the day. If they can break above this then I am looking at the 8726 level as the next main resistance as we have the key fib here, and also the 30m 200ema. It's also splitting R1 at 8697 and R2 at 8733.
However, if the bears attempt to drive it down off the daily pivot instead then a dip down to the 8620 support area would fit the chart well, and a test of S2, daily support, 10d Raff and the key fib here would set up a decent bounce. That's assuming that they manage to break S1 at 8637 as well!
We are just on the bottom of the 20d Raff channel here at 8650 to start with as well, while the 10d Raff channel has started to head downwards now, following the declines off the 8800 area. As such this longer term channel lends some weight to an initial bounce. Also note that the 10d Raff channel is bang on S2 hence expecting a bounce here.
The 2h chart remains bearish though and we have the Hull MA at the 8680 level so it we may well see the bears attempt an assault at this area to tie in with the daily pivot.
If the bears were to break below the 8611 S2 level today then 8576 is S3, but ultimately the bears will be aiming for the 8550 level once again. Let's see if any test of 8615 holds though, and I am not expecting 8550 today....
The Dax40 movement today is likely to be front running the election this Sunday, so we may well see some caution on that. I am thinking that a rise towards the 22530 area and then some profit taking is likely, as we have the 30m 200ema and the key fib in this area. Both the Raff channels on this, and the S&P500 continue to head upwards.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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