Its Election Day! Torys poll small majority | 7220 7178 support | 7255 7285 7311 resistance

Bulls still in charge with 7300 defended | 7362 7390 resistance | 7243 support still untested | bullish momentum

FTSE 100 outlook prediction analysis for 19th November 2019

On Monday, the biggest blue-chip faller was Aviva, with the insurance firm falling 19.9p to 414.5p after announcing it would not be selling its Singaporean wing, ending months of speculation. The pound rose during the session, hitting a six-month high of €1.173 against the euro around two hours into the London session on hopes of an orderly Brexit.

Europe will be struck by an even larger wave of debt defaults in the next downturn compared to the financial crisis after a surge in junk-rated companies, Moody’s has predicted. The credit ratings agency warned that the proportion of B3-rated companies, those graded as “speculative” quality, has doubled in Europe over just three years. The deterioration means the region will see “a much larger number of downgrades and defaults during the next cyclical downturn compared with the crisis in 2008-09”, Moody’s said.

Wall Street’s three main indexes on Monday barely extended the previous session’s closing records as investors waited for concrete progress on U.S.-China trade relations after mixed headlines.  The market appeared to welcome Washington’s extension for U.S. companies to do business with Huawei after the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker was put on a U.S. blacklist in May.

Powell Meets Trump

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Monday to discuss the economy, marking a second face-to-face sit-down this year amid relentless White House criticism of the U.S. central bank. Powell’s comments “were consistent with his remarks at his congressional hearings last week,” the Fed said in a statement released after the meeting at the White House, adding that the gathering was at the president’s invitation. The meeting comes amid a steady stream of criticism of the Fed by Trump, who tweeted it was a “very good & cordial meeting.”

Market Open

Asian equity futures were modestly lower early Tuesday as U.S. stocks struggled to extend gains beyond the record levels reached last week with traders looking for signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Futures in Japan and Australia were little changed with Hong Kong contracts slipping after escalating violence in the city Monday. The dollar extended a slide after it emerged Powell and Trump discussed negative interest rates and the greenback. Oil dropped and gold gained.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The bulls held onto the 7300 level yesterday as the 2 hour chart went bullish and provided support there. That said they couldn’t really break the 7330 resistance level with any conviction as most markets marched sideways awaiting US China trade developments. For today, if the bulls can push past the 7330 level then we should see a rise towards the next resistance level at 7363 where we have a key fib and is just above the R2 level for today. Above this the I am thinking that we will see a test of the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 7388, and at that point we may see the bears appear. The sentiment remains bullish while the technicals suggest that we should have a drop down towards the 7200 level. The former is winning the battle for the direction at the moment!

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

If the bears were to break below the 7297 level which is the 100 Hull MA on the 2 hour chart, then we should see a drop down to the 7266 level where we have the key support fib level. Below that then 7243 looks like it would hold as that would finally be a test of the daily coral and we also have the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel here. Daily support is lower at 7216 and the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 7199 but I am not expecting us to go that low today. Bears seem pretty scarce these days!

Thats said, the S&P is also still due a pull back and anything negative on the trade front will likely see that pull back to that daily support area mentioned yesterday, now at 3061 for today.

The FTSE daily chart remains bullish with the moving average support at 7310 and holding on, despite a few forays below it. The bulls are certainly keen to keep the price above the 7300 level for the moment. Will today be the day they break it? I would still like to see a test of the daily coral now at 7243 and will look to go for a long at that level. Having the bottom of the 20 day Raff here also lends a bit of weight to it as a decent support level.

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