FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 ended Friday higher, marking its third straight weekly gain on strength in commodity-linked shares and consumer staples, although worries about high inflation slowing economic growth kept sentiment in check. After falling as much as 0.3pc, the blue-chip index rose 0.2pc to close at 7,483. The mood took a hit as data showed Britons cut back on their shopping in February and consumer confidence levels tumbled this month, while accelerating inflation cast a shadow over the world’s fifth-biggest economy.
Sovereign bonds and U.S. equity futures fell Monday as economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy sapped sentiment. A key section of the Treasury yield curve inverted, stoking fears of a growth downturn.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed past 2.5%, above a technical trendline that has served as a ceiling since the late 1980s. The yield on the five-year note rose above the 30-year — an inversion that’s heralded recessions in the past, and raises concerns about a policy misstep as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates.
Joe Biden
Senior U.S. officials intensified attempts to clarify President Joe Biden’s call for the removal of Vladimir Putin following criticism that the U.S. president is further inflaming tension with Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron and the U.K. government distanced themselves from Biden’s comment, which capped a speech in Warsaw to rally support for Ukraine against Russia. “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” Biden said. Watch his speech here. Meanwhile, Chinese companies and government officials are rushing to find out how to comply with U.S. sanctions on Russia; Russian tankers are increasingly concealing their movements; and the country is facing a deep two-year recession.
Steady Start
Stocks looked set for a cautious start as Russia’s war in Ukraine pushes into a second month and questions swirl about the economic impact of tighter U.S. monetary policy. Equity futures were steady for the U.S. and earlier pointed to muted opens in Japan and Australia. Sovereign yields jumped in Australia and New Zealand amid pressure on bonds stemming from concerns about price pressures and tightening monetary policy.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 28th March 2022
We got a good bounce on Friday on the S&P500 from the 4505 level and was good to ride that long to the close. I am still running a small part of that for the moment. The war now enters its second month and markets have continued to climb though I wouldn’t be surprised if they stall soon as the global slowdown and increased costs gather pace.
For today I am thinking that the FTSE100 will do a small dip to start with down to the S1 and 30m 200ema at 7460 and then we may well see a climb to once again test the 7520 level. This level rains fairly key resistance and in fact we have daily resistance at 7525 and then the pre-invasion high at 7550. The FTSE100 is just knocking on the door of 7500 as I write this and the bulls will be keen to recapture this level once again.
Initial support is at the 7460 as mentioned, then 7437 key fib below that. The daily chart remains bullish with the 25ema at 7375 for the moment so should it get down to that area this week then we may well see a bounce here. S3 is in fact just above that for today at 7382 though I am not expecting us to slide that low today.
If the bulls on the other hand can break above the 7525 and possibly 7550, then a trip up towards the 7568 R2 level may well play out for a decent bull Monday. The S&P bulls will certainly be trying to build on Friday’s rise. That said, the 7539 level is both R1 and the key fib so they may have a job to break above this on the first attempt at least. Interesting day coming up!
Above 7568 then 7600 round number will be the next major hurdle.
Raffs
The Raff channels are both heading up now on the daily chart and the bottom of the Raff 10 day channel is at 7400 which will lend weight to the bulls defending this area.
S&P500
4500 remains support for the moment and I am thinking that 4515 S1 level will be defended today for a rise towards the 4550 level. Above this then R1 at 4560 could get tested, and R2 is fairly close at 4576, so we could see a stutter in this area. As with the FTSE100 the Raff channels are heading up, and the bottom of the 10d is at 4455 for the moment, a break of 4500 may well see a test of that. Generally looks bullish for today, though if the bears break the 4505 level then look for support at 4485 (S2 and 30m 200em) and then 4450.
Dax40
As per the other two, a dip and rise would fit the charts pretty well today. The 2h chart is bullish to start with though we are dipping below the Hull, MA support slightly at the 14323 level. If that were to break then a drop down to the key fib at 14234 would fit well, followed by a subsequent bounce to the 14439 level, to test both the key fib levels for today. Again, the Raffs are heading up so the bulls are holding up well on the longer timeframes. That said, the 2h coral is in a downtrend with 14365 resistance so the bulls will need to push above this today.
Good luck today.
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