Can the bulls push to 7585 today | trading help signals analysis

13th October 2017
The FTSE 100 managed to push above the 7545 level yesterday and continue the sideways chop as it rose to 7565 before dropping down to 7530 again, but did close at a new high which grabbed some headlines. The Dax long at 12950 worked well as we saw a revisit to 13000 on that. The gold long didn’t really do much during the session (but has risen back towards 1300 overnight). An earthquake in North Korea yesterday evening was probably another nuclear underground test, but didn’t have much of an affect on markets though the S&P is still failing to push above the 2555 level. Will Friday the 13th be unlucky today!? The trend is still upward as we are making higher highs so shorts are still risky.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction Support Resistance Trading Signals
FTSE 100 Prediction Support Resistance Trading Signals

For today I am thinking that the bulls will take another run at the 7567 level and possibly break above it to test the resistance area between 7584 (R2) and 7594 (fib level). R3 is just above this at 7600, so a stop above this is needed for any shorts around this area. Overnight the ASX has been bullish during their session with a strong rising trend up to R2.

The FTSE 100 is being very cable driven at the moment, which is quite volatile as Brexit negotiations continue. Cable rising fast caused the FTSE 100 to fall fast from the 7567 level yesterday. Despite that making things complicated the trend is still up on the FTSE and we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 7524 for this morning. We also have the 200ema on the 30min at this level so we may well see this area hold as support. If it were to break there I am watching 7490 as the next level. The bulls will be keen to end the week strongly though I suspect.

The 2 hour chart is still bearish though, so the bulls will be keen to break and hold above 7550 as soon as possible, but its worth noting that gold has risen a bit from that 1290 level suggesting a little bit of safe haven buying. Still a possibility for a rise to 1312 on gold.

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FTSE Analysis

58 Comments

    1. I’ve got 7520-7550 for the initial range for today. Might see a dip below but will see how it plays out. Daily is turning over though so won’t expect 7565 today (Famous last words)

      1. I simply say never say never to anything here.. anything is possible just hold on to your gains and cut your losses…

  1. Morning all….well I was wrong so far with cable…it reached 1.3324…… Still think it will drop and I’m looking for a move back up to the 7550 area…

    1. Morning all. Why do you think we cant even have soem pullback of 100 pips or so beofre continuation of themain trend …

        1. Just the way I think it will play out Sharma….and a lot of observation….I’m not really a believer in charts 100%….. Technical analysis is good but I think it’s important to anticipate the curved balls….

      1. I am thinking the longer it stays around 30 the longer more buyer will come in search of gap close and all. before big dump

        1. Well the thing is ….we are all guessing…nobody knows….I know I have no control over where it’s goin but I know I can control my interaction with it….just got to watch and let the market come to you….

  2. The candlemaster remains on the sidelines here.
    2 fairly fast moves in GBP USD yesterday and a big recent bounce in same have not unduly troubled FTSE.
    And this troubles the candlemaster who surmises it should have tested 7500 at the very least.
    So FTSE still appears relatively strong and hard to play at these levels. Angels might fear to tread here.
    Stopped out of gold for a tiny profit. Fully in cash.
    Predicted the dollar weakness of the last week but sadly didnt capitalise on it last few days.
    Need to find a better way to play that.

  3. The sterling moves are getting annoying now.. I think if you look at the Dow and Dax they’re barely moving so the currency algo orders must be a fair chunk of the volume on the exchange hence the big lurches when Sterling moves a little bit. Think it will head back to $1.35 given time so that should put the FTSE under pressure. Still thinking there’s a move to 7500 soon, before we take out yesterday’s high. And if anything, I’m favouring a break of 7490 before a break of yesterday’s high. Low 7400s would be where I’d be looking to get long

  4. I am stying sideways today. I’ve never liked the “last breath” longs towards the high. It’s like poking in the sky not knowing how high you can reach. The decent pull back will only start with the spike (which will be painful for some shorters) so there’s no point to short here where we’re wrapped in supports.

  5. I’m not quite sure why the U.S. mom retail sales ex autos coming in at 1% instead of 0.4 has pushed up cable and gold? I don’t understand that…..am I missing something here?? Any advice appreciated…

    1. Overall retail sales was just under expectations though. And inflation data was out at the same time and came in weak. They’re worried about the lack of inflation in the US so this will reduce the probability of a rate hike in December. Hence dollar down, Sterling and gold up

        1. Only 0.1%.. so doubt it makes much difference as it’s marginal. But they tend to overreact to this sort of stuff

      1. Thanks Mcg I understand now….yes rate hikes strengthen the currency/ or the inverse……I missed the inflation data….need eyes in the back of your head. Thx.

        1. Just look at the USD index…most trading is all about currencies…and the biggest player is the USD. Thats why I called a top in dollar last Friday. You dont need to look at dozens of charts to trade. You could just trade the dollar as everything else is merely a function of its movements anyway.
          I inferred a weak dollar would aupport atock markets and held off ahorting FTSE, by way of example, but weak dollar equals stronger pound so placing a headwind on ftse ie its going nowhere for a while.

  6. I can see Dax did what I mentioned: spiked and down. That’s how the rise ended several years ago on Dow. I don’t say that now it’s ended. Just noticed it many times.

    1. Icarus has been hauled off in handcuffs sadly to the debtors prison where some rather excitable residents are preparing a little party…

          1. I do understand why you are saying that but there is method in what seems like madness. For the record no i am not paper trading nor do i have a ridiculously low size.

            And TCG – that wasnt funny at all.

            1. I don’t understand! Oh let’s just run offside by 5% and whilst I’m being shafted ever so slightly I will add to it so the pain is so unbearable. I will just throw on random covers on the way up, so I feel slightly less stupid when my bum is getting widened!

  7. Iccy i wouldnt want tobe short here just now. Ftse is a bull flag on daily. Last 3 days 7520 good support – hasnt even considered testing 7500. So unless theres an event over the weekend i expect the bulls to push on next week, despite the fact we are long overdue a correction. Might be cheaper to close some shorts and keep some powder dry for when the plunge does arrive, which it will.

      1. Even in the unlikely event it tanks on monday could always add to shorts then.
        Unlucky to get caught in a crazy bull push.

  8. Just reading the comments about Icarus’s situation……..I’m pretty bullish at the moment , but my mind goes back to the tech bubble that ended badly in early 2000……at some point this lot is going to collapse….in my experience holding stuff offside in the past….. when the market eventually turns you are that relieved to get out somewhere around break even that you can sometimes miss out on some healthy gains if the market does what you expected eventually in the first place…I’m not suggesting anything either way to Icarus but the more comfortable people get going long the more It starts ringing alarm bells to me..Icarus, a possible halfway house for you might be to close part of your position at a loss and if you feel it’s still what you want to do , run the rest…..I have seen 1200 pts decline in the Dow before so if you are around 21700 it’s not unforeseeable you could get some respite….Having said that unless we get a black swan which is possible the Dow looks like it means business..if you reduced your position size it would save on finance and dividends and at the first sign of a reversal you could slowly increase your exposure again….it’s not a nice feeling what your going through but it’s all part of the learning process….best of luck however you decide to proceed from here…

    1. Guys the problem is that the vix is so low and we’ve only managed a max drawdown of 600ish points all year on the Dow. So if you’re hoping for a 1000 point drop you’re looking for something to happen which is a lower probability event. Might happen, but probably won’t. i don’t know where your breakeven is, but guess it’s quite far below now. I think you’re going to end up having to take a loss on this one, so need to come up with some sort of plan to get out. What’s the max you’re willing to go with? I know you said 22700 before but it’s gone a further 200 points already. I think if it went down 300 points or so then that would be worth ditching and starting over. I take Anstel’s point around if it turns it turns big.. but one thing to note around tops is generally they sell off and retest the high multiple times before it actually goes down so you’d have plenty of time to get on board with the big one if it comes. Markets don’t crash from ATHs so before this one goes down there’s a lot of backtesting to go before it would be ready to roll over.

      I know before you’ve mentioned your wave count but there should be some invalidation points in there. You need to start trading with stops to avoid this type of scenario. We’ve all been there.. my max drawdown was £450k before I learnt how to trade and manage my risk. That was a lot of hard work wiped out through holding on to a bad trade, adding and not letting go. From what I can see with your strategy it will work ok when the markets are in a trading range but fall apart when they trend strongly like the Dow is. It needs to be adapted so that you’re defining the range and any breaks above or below lead to the positions being liquidated.

  9. Nice post! I agree completely and it’s a very objective view. Iccy Azalea clearly has no exit strategy and for me that’s what the issue is. He will be forever in limbo until he is wiped out or the market turns.

  10. First and foremost Many Thanks for the supportive words and advice guys anstel, MCG and CM.

    For now i have added a 100% hedge. Will re-evaluate over the weekend and see what next week brings. For info my be is around 22300.
    Re: 22700, yes at the time it was indeed a string possibility. Reason i have held on for another 200 is the weekly chart and the possibility of a reaction from the trend line resistance.

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