8th May 2019
The United Kingdom will “regrettably” have to hold European elections “given how little time there is” to pass the Government’s Brexit deal and necessary legislation through the House of Commons, David Lidington has admitted. Theresa May’s de facto deputy told BBC News that it is “not going to be possible” to finish the departure process before May 23, when the UK is legally obliged as still part of the bloc to hold elections to the European Parliament. But he insisted that ministers would be “redoubling our efforts” in cross-party talks with the hope of sorting out the Brexit deal “ideally” before new MEPs take their seats at the beginning of July.
Tariffs’ Toll
U.S. stocks plummeted the most since March as investors fretted about what Trump’s tariff threat might mean for trade talks with China. Asian equity futures indicated the selloff would extend. There’d been a long stretch of calm and steady gains for U.S. equities, but, just like that, volatility returned. Perhaps traders should worry about a different set of numbers.
Lagarde
Christine Lagarde thought relations between China and the U.S were getting better, and that their trade talks were crawling toward the finish line. “We hope that is still the case but today rumors, tweets and comments are not very favorable,” the IMF chief said on Bloomberg TV. As for machines and quant traders, they’re striking a wait-and-see stance.
Record Defaults
This year is shaping up to be the biggest by far for defaults in China’s $13 trillion bond market, highlighting the widening fallout from the government’s campaign to rein in leverage. Companies defaulted on 39.2 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) of domestic bonds in the first four months of the year, some 3.4 times the total for the same period of 2018, according to data.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
Going to remain an interesting week for the the time being, as the trade talk continues between US and China. I do think its Trump’s usual tactic though of asking/telling (via a Tweet) for a lot more than you expect to get, but ultimately ending up with more than the other party probably wanted to give. We shall see at the end fo the week as the Chinese delegation arrives in Washington today for talks.
The bears remained in control yesterday and there was the briefest of supports at the 7315 level before the bears took it steadily down in a trending day, to an evening low of 7217. Overnight we have crept back up a bit and the 7240 level remains as in hours support. That said the 2 hour support failed yesterday and with further declines that has gone bearish again, with resistance at the 7281 level. With the daily pivot here at 7278 as well, we may well see this as an entry point for selling the rallies, for a retest of that 7217 level. Below that then I am looking at the 7180 area as support, as we have the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel here and also S1 for today. A long off this level may well be worth taking, in case we get some positive news out of the USA about the trade talks.
If the bears were to break below the 7180 level then we are probably on a path for 7000 again, as we have S3 at 7024 today and things remains pretty bearish. There is also support down at 6750 but I expect the bulls will fight tooth and nail to try and keep the FTSE above 7000, if anything to keep things looking positive with all the Brexit stuff still going on.
If the bulls were to break above 7280 today then 7323 is the next key level – and a sort of back test of yesterdays 7315 support (supposedly) area. With the 30min 200ema and the fib level at 7323 we may well see a stutter here and also a level thats worth a short if seen.
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