11th January 2019
Turned quite bullish yesterday in the end with the 10800 Dax level holding well despite the news that the German economy is possibly heading into recession. The bulls managed to push through the 10900 resistance level also. On the FTSE the bulls broke above 6950 and it still looks like we will see 7000 soon. The gold long is still hanging in there from yesterday, and has moved into profit overnight night – plan to just leave that running today. Was a dire day generally for retail once again yesterday with a slew of results out and most struggling.
Asian equity markets traded mostly higher Friday following the 5th consecutive session of gains on Wall Street. The S&P 500 Index rallied as gains in utilities, industrials and real estate shares overwhelmed weakness in retailers sparked by concerns about a sales slowdown and fears about the potential consequences of the ongoing partial government shutdown. The yuan extended its advance and Treasury yields climbed with the dollar.
Fed Chair Powell repeated that the Fed has the ability to be patient given the inflation data and has the ability to be patient and flexible rates. Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank can be patient before adjusting interest rates again as it waits to see how global risks impact the domestic economy. “We’re in a place where we can be patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve, and I think for the meantime we’re waiting and watching,” Powell said in a question-and-answer session Thursday at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Minutes of the Fed’s December meeting released on Wednesday showed that many officials are taking a cautious approach to further rate increases. Stocks briefly dipped Thursday after the Fed chair discussed returning the balance sheet to a normal level.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
Its actually been pretty bullish this week in the first full week trading of 2019 and it may well continue today. Sets a motive tone for 2019 despite the backdrop of pessimism. The rhetoric has been more positive, even though the stats/results etc haven’t with retail faring badly as widely expected. Lowering of expectations across the board is usually a positive – underpromise and over deliver being the usual mantra, once the shock of the downgrade is overcome.
As such I am looking to ideally go long this morning if the price drops back to test the 30min coral and daily pivot area at the 6930 level. the bulls will be keen to keep the price above the 6950 level though as that keeps the chance of 7006 alive and a level that looks likely to be tested imminently. Higher up the 7050 area is stronger resistance, though the positivity of seeing 7000 again might well carry the price higher. With the bullishness yesterday the 2 hour chart has gone positive again again, and has support at 6950, thus making this price fairly key today. I expect we push higher but being Friday expect the unexpected! The daily chart moving averages have also gone positive for the first time since September 2018 showing support at 6826 – as such a swing long at this area is worth a go.
If the bears were to break below 6930 today then a drop down 6880 where we have S1 and the 200ema on the 30min looks possible, with 6860 below that. Should that break then the swing long is in play at 6825 as that level would more than likely be tested.
We have UK GDP data out at 09:30 as well today so keep an eye on that, no change expected from previous.
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