Good morning. An alright day yesterday with the dip to the pivot and then rise (been the pattern all this week so far) however, the rise ran out of puff at 6678 area where we closed half the long (fortunately!), and dropped right back to the 200ema on 30min at 6640ish. However, its since climbed back and of course today is Non Farm Payrolls so its going to be lively later on around 13:30. If the ADP report is anything to go by then NFP will just miss the 200k forecast. For any sort of bullishness to continue for the moment the bulls will need to break 6675 which still leaves 6715 in play.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asia’s benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses amid low trading volume, leaving the regional gauge on course for a second week of gains as investors await data on U.S. jobs growth.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 138.84 as of 12:01 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge yesterday capped a seventh straight advance, its longest winning streak this year, after a private report showed stronger-than-forecast growth in U.S. employment in March. The government’s nonfarm payrolls data due today will show that hiring increased last month by the most since November, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Barring something out of left field, a nothing sort of day is on the cards,” Tony Farnham, a Perth-based analyst at Paterson Securities Ltd., said in an e-mail.
Asian shares are on course for a second week of gains, with Japanese stocks rebounding from last quarter’s slump and Hong Kong equities surging as China outlined economic stimulus plans. The regional measure this week rose 1.7 percent through yesterday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.3 percent.
Japan’s Topix index slid 0.2 percent today, paring its weekly advance to 2.4 percent. Volume was 32 percent below its 30-day average for this time of day. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent, with volume 33 percent lower than average. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.2 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated 0.3 percent.
US Futures
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equities benchmark slipped 0.1 percent yesterday, from a record, as consumer and technology shares slumped.
U.S. employers probably added 200,000 people to nonfarm payrolls last month, according to the median of 90 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg, the most since a 274,000 increase in November and up from the 175,000 workers added in February. Data yesterday showed an uptick in jobless claims, with the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rising to a five-week high of 326,000, exceeding the median forecast for 319,000.
FTSE Outlook
To be honest I am probably going to sit it out today; its NFP and a Friday so could be a tad unpredictable, however, I think as long as 6640 holds if tested then we should still get the rise to 6700/6715 area. Worst case scenario of the bulls is a dip right to the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6625, which I expect will hold, unless NFP is a real shocker (which I don’t think it will be). The upper line on the Bianca for both 10 and 20 day channels is just above 6700 so I think we will still see a test of that area today.