Good morning. Slightly frustrating that the order I set to long at 6787 missed by 0.3 points before the FTSE rallied to 6855 again. C’est la vie. The while Greece thing is major one minute then shrugged off as the US climbs to near on record highs, though the FTSE hasn’t really managed to break that 6855 level with any conviction, and is back at 6843 as I am writing this. If the bulls break this then I expect we will test the top of the Bianca 10 day today at 6919 today.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index to the highest level in almost 15 years, as Cisco Systems Inc. and Expedia Inc. rallied and optimism grew over a cease-fire in Ukraine.
Cisco jumped 9.4 percent as profit and sales topped estimates. Expedia rose 15 percent after agreeing to acquire Orbitz Worldwide Inc. Online travel rival TripAdvisor Inc. soared 23 percent. American Express Co. slipped 6.4 percent as it plans to end co-brand and merchant agreements with Costco Wholesale Corp.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1 percent to 2,088.48 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index is less than 3 points from a record reached Dec. 29. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2 percent to 4,857.61, the highest level since March 2000. The Nasdaq 100 Index surged 1.2 percent, also reaching a nearly 15-year high. About 7.2 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, 4.8 percent above the three-month average.
“There’s general optimism around the U.S. economy and a little bit of relief that some of the major international issues are not going to impinge just yet on positive trends here,” John Carey, a Boston-based fund manager at Pioneer Investment Management, which oversees about $230 billion, said in a phone interview. “For the moment people seem to be somewhat more at ease about some of the trouble spots in the world. People are looking at the glass half full.”
Record Highs
Equities are approaching record levels for the first time in 2015, bolstered by the biggest three-month rise in hiring in 17 years and signs of easing tension between Greece and its euro-area creditors. The S&P 500 has rallied 4.7 percent in February after sinking 3.1 percent in January for its worst month in a year.
The Nasdaq Composite closed below 4,000 twice last year, on Feb. 3 and April 11, but has rallied nearly 22 percent since then. The gauge is now 3.8 percent below its all-time closing high of 5,048.62, set on March 10, 2000.
The index has gotten a boost in 2015 from large technology stocks. Apple Inc. has increased 15 percent, Netflix Inc. has surged 34 percent and Amazon.com Inc. has risen 22 percent year-to-date. Apple climbed to a record of $126.46 high today, while Amazon is about 6.2 percent from an all-time high.
U.S. stocks have traded for the last two months in one of the tightest ranges since 2007, marked by a record high of 2,090.57 and Dec. 16 low of 1,972.74 for the S&P 500.
Dollar Increase
The strongest dollar in a decade and a plunge in oil prices that threaten investment and earnings growth have tested the resilience of investors as the bull market nears its seventh anniversary. Concern that European growth is slipping amid signs of deflation, coupled with a showdown that led to speculation Greece would exit from the region’s shared currency also weighed on investor sentiment.
A peace summit between Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin and French and German leaders ended early Thursday with an accord on a cease-fire to stem the conflict that’s devastated eastern Ukraine.
European Union leaders will take up the baton on Greece when they gather in Brussels on Thursday after finance ministers from the euro area concluded talks saying that compromise was possible on the country’s future financing. The ministers failed to bridge their differences in six hours of discussions Wednesday and agreed to reconvene for another attempt on Monday.
‘Upward Momentum’
“The Ukraine resolution is just one less thing to think about or be concerned about at this point,” Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion, said in a phone interview. “U.S.-based companies keep proving that they’re the best place to be, and the market is continuing to have some really nice upward momentum this month.”
With the S&P 500 trading at 17.5 times its members’ projected earnings, a multiple 22 percent higher than the five-year average, investors are analyzing earnings reports and economic data to assess stocks valuations.
Equities pared early gains Thursday as data showed sales at U.S. retailers fell more than forecast in January, reflecting smaller receipts at gasoline stations and declines at clothing and sporting goods stores. A separate report showed applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to a level that’s consistent with progress in the U.S. labor market.
The S&P 500 has more than tripled from its bear-market low in March 2009, propelled higher by better-than-forecast corporate earnings and three rounds of Federal Reserve bond purchases. The Fed renewed its pledge in January to maintain record-low borrowing costs even as the economy shows signs of acceleration.
Earnings Reports
Almost three-quarters of index members have reported results so far, with 77 percent beating profit estimates and 57 percent topping sales projections, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 9.6 percent to 15.34. The gauge, know as the VIX, is down 11 percent for the week after losing more than 17 percent last week.
Eight of 10 major industries in the S&P 500 climbed today, with commodity, energy and technology companies jumping at least 1.3 percent.
FTSE Outlook
We have a nice looking 30min channel in play for today with support at the pivot around 6831 and if this level holds then we should get some bullishness, which MAY well finally break the 6858 resistance area. If so then I expect we will get a test of the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6919 – and this is probably worth a short from. On the flip side, the bottom of that 10 day channel is 6780, so I expect that we will get good support there if it dips that low – as below this then 6745 is the next support after the 6767 20 day channel bottom.
Today though I am thinking that the 6831 area is going to hold and therefore worth a long from, otherwise I am trading off the 10 day Bianca channels, with a stop below the 20 day 6767 (and also the 25ema on the daily), so 2 decent supports at 6767.
A good day to make new highs on the S&P most likely as the superstitious ones stay clear, being Friday 13th and all.