Good morning. Well the big news last Friday was the Greece deal, which saw markets rise, and futures continue that trend, breaking through the resistance levels. If the FTSE now closes above the 6930 area then we should be on for further rises and break through that 7000 level. It stalled a little at the all time high level around 6950, and has held up over the weekend in the absence of anything detrimental news wise. That said, its currently around the top of the Bianca channels for today…..spike up and then pull back a little for bear Monday, before the usual bull Tuesday? Needs to trigger some stops I would imagine though the Greek saga still has a bit to run….
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks climbed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average building on a 15-year high, and gold held losses as investors await progress on Greece’s bailout extension agreed Feb. 20. Oil fell in New York.
The Nikkei 225 gained 0.8 percent by 9:20 a.m. in Tokyo, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.4 percent following a fifth straight weekly gain. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the U.S. gauge closed at a record. The euro was little changed, while gold traded at $1,202.41 an ounce following a 0.4 percent retreat Friday. Oil in New York dropped after sliding 4.6 percent last week.
The government in Athens has until the end of Monday to complete a list of policies in return for a four-month extension of bailout funds after talks concluded late on Feb. 20. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda addresses parliament after minutes of its January meeting were released. Officials in Kiev said pro-Russia rebels in Ukraine’s east continued to attack troops, while a bomb killed two people at a rally in the city of Kharkiv.
“It looks like Greek debt negotiations will continue to hold sway over coming months with the four-month extension only granting a small window of reprieve.” Con Williams and Sam Tuck, analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today. “The continued geopolitical ructions with Russia over the Ukraine, as well as the unrest in the Middle East means there are many issues that will continue to hold sway in political discussions, distracting politicians from economic policy.”
Japan Stocks
The euro weakened 0.1 percent to $1.1365. The Greek reform measures are still subject to validation by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, the institutions collectively known as the troika which Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras vowed not to recognize.
Japan’s Topix index increased 0.7 percent and is heading for its highest close since December 2007. The broadest measure of equities soared 17 percent since Oct. 31, when the Bank of Japan pledged to triple its share purchases and the $1.1 trillion public pension fund doubled its allocation to local stocks. Smaller companies haven’t fared so well, with a gauge of startups adding 0.3 percent in the period.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.2 percent higher, with eight of 10 industry groups advancing. Energy shares were among the only companies to fall as oil extended its declines.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for April delivery traded 0.6 percent lower at $50.50 a barrel. U.S. oil stockpiles rose to a fresh record in the week through Feb. 13. That’s coinciding with calls by the United Steelworkers, which represents 30,000 U.S. oil workers, for four more plants to join the biggest strike since 1980 as talks dragged on with Royal Dutch Shell Plc.
Oman Production
Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that’s not a member of OPEC, is boosting crude output to as much as possible with the global price rout over, said Salim Al Aufi, undersecretary of the oil and gas ministry.
Norway’s krone retreated 0.4 percent, tracking lower oil prices. Rising supply from the U.S. to Russia is contributing to a worldwide crude surplus that Oman estimates at 1 million barrels a day. Brent crude futures have climbed 5 percent this year to $60.22 a barrel after falling 48 percent last year.
Gold for immediate delivery fell for a fourth straight week, the longest such streak since September 2013. The net-long position in gold tumbled 18 percent to 110,164 futures and options contracts in the week ended Feb. 17, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.[Ref]
FTSE Outlook
After Fridays rise, and still some details to be thrashed out for the 4 month debt extension, I think we may see an initial dip off the top of the Bianca channel areas. Support initially if so is at the pivot 6930, with the bottom of the 10 day Bianca below that at 6887. If the bears do manage to get some momentum then I think we will see dip to the 6858 area, where I would expect a bounce. If this level breaks then 6800 beckons, with a pause around 6832 where we have the 20 day Bianca channel bottom. Will the bears be that powerful today though? On the upside, if the top of the Bianca channels break then I expect a rise towards 6960 (top of that 30min PRT channel) with 6990 resistance above that, then the top of the 2 Raffs at 7020ish. Short from here if seen could be good for a slight dip.