Good morning. Well that 6150 held rather well yesterday as we had another volatile day, and the long from that level came good. Unfortunately the short at the pivot got stopped, which was a shame as it then dropped back to 6150 for an even bigger bounce! We have since held steady overnight around 6270 – right on todays pivot. The main news at the moment is of course Russia, with he Rouble getting pasted at the moment. We have the Fed meeting today and tomorrow. Russia’s economic crisis won’t stop the Federal Reserve from dropping a vow to keep interest rateslow for a “considerable time,” economists said, even as policy makers may acknowledge global risks have intensified. At 09:30 we have the BoE minutes released, and todays divi applied later is 0.3 – so not likely to garner much reaction.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose before a Federal Reserve policy decision as gains in energy and utility shares outweighed a decline in Japanese equities spurred by a stronger yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 134.49 as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping 2 percent the previous two days. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index sank 0.5 percent after the yen surged 1.2 percent versus the dollar yesterday. Russia’s currency plummeted to a record yesterday, defying a surprise interest-rate increase, while crude resumed declines today. The Fed will drop a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time,” according to economists.
“Focus now switches to the FOMC meeting, which has been pinned as a pivotal one,” Stan Shamu, Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Ltd., wrote in a note. “The challenge will be how to proceed given the backdrop of turmoil in the rest of the world.”
South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed.
Markets in Hong Kong and China are yet to open. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.2 percent in their most recent trading session, and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng gauge entered a correction yesterday after extending a decline from a Sept. 3 high to 10 percent.
Russian Ruble
Exports in Japan rose less than economists predicted in November from the previous year, while imports unexpectedly declined. The yen traded at 116.75 per dollar today after jumping yesterday as investors sought a haven amid the ruble’s collapse.
The scope and speed of the ruble’s retreat indicate policy makers are losing control of the situation as a six-month tumble in oil robs President Vladimir Putin of the hard currency he needs to sustain an economy that’s faltering under the weight of international sanctions. The selloff in Moscow is prompting investors to pull money from other developing nations on concern about a global slowdown.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent today. The underlying equity measure lost 0.9 percent yesterday as declines in technology shares overshadowed gains in oil producers. Russia’s economic crisis won’t stop the Fed from dropping its vow to keep rates low for longer, economists said, even as policy makers may acknowledge global risks have intensified.
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot has been the main overnight level, but as we have just snuck above it this morning it should act as initial support. Resistance is at yesterdays high at 6351 and the top of the 10 day Bianca, with 6420 above that. For today I have put in an initial rise to the top of the 30minute channel before a drop back down. The bulls need to defend 6212 today as a move below that will likely lead to 6109 where we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel. Below that 6035 is the bottom of the 20 day Raff, if its volatile again today then we might even get these levels! However, as you can see from the arrows I am slightly more bullish todays as long at 6212 holds then i think we will get a bullish day. Initial resistance is at the 200ema on the 30min at 6310ish, though the channel resistance at 6321 is probably a better entry to try a short, and is also yesterdays closing price.