16th February 2017
FTSE 100 Support 7278 7271 7268 7246 7160 7155
FTSE 100 Resistance 7334 7335 7355 7358 7365 7372
Good morning. I thought that we might have had a slightly bigger rise yesterday afternoon with that large divi, but instead the 7312 resistance level that we had held and the bulls were not able to break that. Still managed 24 points off the 7280 level though so not a bad rise. Maybe that 7313 level was stronger than I thought! If they were able to break it today though then the top of both the Bianca channels is at 7334 today. Futures prices rallied after the bell yesterday, regaining the 28 point divi drop to retest the 7297 level overnight.
However, there has been a bit of weakness in Asian markets overnight which has brought the S&P futures off their 2354 high overnight. Strong trending day on the S&P again yesterday however at some point (maybe today?) things are going to get a bit toppy, though granted at the moment its a pretty bullish one way street we are on! Will be painful for the swing traders who have probably been shorting this as we have risen, though of some consolation is that the FTSE rise hasn’t been nearly as exuberant as the US one!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
We have some key US data out this afternoon which traders will be watching to give an idea of the likelihood of a March interest rate rise. We also have the ECB at 12:30 with their monetary policy meeting minutes.
The GBPUSD rate continues to hover around the 12500 area and that is what is tempering the FTSE rises at the moment and why its been unable to really push higher following in the US footsteps.
We have both the Bianca channels at 7335 today as initial resistance, with the recent high at 7355 above that. I think we might just overshoot that a little though if we were to get that high and it actually opens up a decent swing short area at around the 7365 level where we have the top of the 20 day Raff and also S3 for today. However, the FTSE has been a bit lacklustre with its rises so may struggle to get that high.
For support we have the bottom of the 10 day channel at 7278 and just above the level we bounced from yesterday after the divi was applied. Prior to that we have the daily pivot at 7291 as well, not much below where we are as I am writing this, and a positive looking chart to start things off today.
The key will be for the bulls to break 7313 – we might well get a double top reaction there first thing this morning and a drop back down, as its still a resistance level of note. It is also R1 for today.
So, for today the levels I am watching at 7278 for support, 7313 and 7365 for resistance.