24th April 2017
Good morning. Everyone was waiting for the French election news and the first round has been won by Macron, with Le Pen in second place. These two will now slug it out on the 7th May. Markets reacted positively on Sunday night open, with the FTSE gapping up to 7225 before Chinese shares selling off brought it back down to 7140. This morning has seen a bit more of a bounce so we could still be on for a Bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern in the European markets. 7216 is the top of the 10 day Bianca channel though. Looking at the charts gold is at the bottom of its daily Raff channels (so would expect a bit of a bounce from 1270), while equites are near the top of their Raff channels, so you would expect some pullback under normal circumstances (7210 FTSE, 12385 Dax, 2380 S&P).
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
So as the French election first round news is digested the market is likely to be slightly more choppy than usual. We still have Asian geo-political tensions with the US carrier fleet now within range of North Korea. The markets have gapped up on Sunday night and as mentioned above, equites are near the top of their Raff channels. The top of the 10 day Raff on the FTSE is 7206, while the 10day Bianca is at 7216. I am full expecting a bull Monday, bear Tuesday this week again, so we may well see a rise past this area if the bulls are buoyed by the Macron lead. Overnight high was 7225 as well, but thats out of hours so not that reliable.
Support wise, we have 7150 and then 7117 as areas of note.
To be honest I expect it will mostly be sentiment driven today as people hop on moves afraid of missing out. Its also likely to be a bit volatile. Chinese shares were off during their Monday session and the ASX200 wasn’t particularly strong. The Dax is likely to be relieved that a more pro-EU candidate has taken the early lead.