12th July 2017
Great Dax short yesterday from near enough the high at 12530 to near enough the low at 12450. Worked out perfectly that one, but was a bit early going long on the FTSE as it dipped a bit lower than the 7321 as news of the Trump/Russia/Clinton saga continues, this time with Trump Jr publishing the email chain. Markets initially sold off, then read them, then rebounded – deciding in 30 minutes that it was no bother and bulls should just keep buying! The big news of the day, however, was in commodity markets. While Goldman Sachs called for oil to drop back below $40 per barrel without “shock and awe” from OPEC, crude defied that call.
Gold might have bottomed at the 1205 level as the long at 1210 gained nicely yesterday and has continued to rise overnight. Might be pre-empting a downturn in indices as there is still FTSE resistance at the 7385 area….
Looking ahead, highlights include the UK jobs report, OPEC monthly report, BoC rate decision, DoEs, and Fed’s Yellen.
The yen strengthened a second day and shares in Tokyo and Sydney declined, while those in Hong Kong rose. U.S. equity futures were slightly lower after the S&P 500 Index recovered from a sudden loss to end Tuesday flat. A gauge of the dollar weakened for a third day. Oil bounced on reports of a decline in stockpiles, and gold was higher. Treasuries and Australian bonds rose.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
The market shook off that email revelation pretty easily proving that they don’t want the markets too dip too far. The bears capitalised on the release of the emails initially but the bulls fought back pretty rapidly as the “buy the dip” mob appeared again.
We still have a lot of daily resistance around the 7380 to 7405 level and it will only be if the bulls can break that 7405 that it might get to XXXX. At the moment, every rise to this area is being sold into. Volume is pretty light though. We have the top of the 2 Bianca channels around the 7385 area and also a fib level and R1 at 7398.
Overnight news on Oil has helped push that up which will help the FTSE, at least initially, though the Australian market had quite a bearish day today. The 2 hour chart has resistance at 7355 but it looks like it will push above that – it managed to do so on the first test yesterday evening.
I still think we are going to get a test of the 7260 level and thought that the email news yesterday might have broken the 7300 level but as it didn’t, it may just hold the 7300 level instead. Tricky! If we do break above 7405 then prior to XXXX we have resistance at XXXX and XXXX to watch so a short around here might well be worth a go.
Tricky to call today, but think if we get an early rally towards that 7385 its a sell yet again there.
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