19th September 2017
Slow but steady rise yesterday with the 7235 long making some points, along with the Dax long. The S&P managed to hold above 2500 for the moment, reaching a high of 2508. Most traders are focussed on the central banks and the next stage of the stimulus efforts and what, if any, reductions might take place. Carney’s speech yesterday was again mooting the idea of further rate rises here, possibly even two. The Fed’s two day meeting starts today, and again traders will be looking for clues on future rate/stimulus direction. Forcing Carney’s hand is the fact that inflation is running hot in the UK, near 3%, which might necessitate a rate rise to counter that. Counter to that is the fact that the economy is still sluggish!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
I have gone for an initial rise with the plan today, testing the 7298 resistance level, but this is dependant on the bulls being able to break above the 7267 resistance level. We have dropped off that overnight, but there is decent looking support to start with on the 30min chart at the pivot area around 7250. Below this the 2 hour chart has now gone bullish again, and is showing support at the 7226 level – a dip to this area might well see some buyers and is worth a long.
If the bulls can break the 7298 resistance area then 7322 is the next level of note, with 7365 above that where we have the top of the daily channels.
For the moment it looks like 7195 is going to hold as the low, however, should the bears break this level then 7165 for the bottom of the 10 day Raff, and then 7100 are the targets for the bears.
So, watching for an early rise to 7298, but mindful of 7267 resistance and then a bit of a dip down to the 7225 level as its bear Tuesday after all! This week is all about the Fed/central banks and stimulus.
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