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Today’s Analysis
6th August 2018
The FOMC kept rates unchanged between 1.75-2.00% last week, as expected, and made minor tweaks to its policy statement. Risk sentiment overshadowed the Fed’s announcement, however, as the US and China were reportedly seeking a restart to talks. The US also announced it was interested in applying 25% tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods. On the data front, headline payrolls out of the US missed expectations on Friday at 157k in July (consensus 191k), along with both the jobless rate and average hourly earnings coming in as expected (3.9%/0.3%).
The BoE stuck to the script in terms of the widely anticipated policy changes last week. Although the Bank of England lifted interest rates by 25bps, the pound plunged lower. Initially, sterling rose on the decision and the unanimous vote to hike rates, though during the press conference with Governor Carney, sellers emerged.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
For today I am thinking that the bulls will try and build on Fridays rise from 7590 while volume is low and we are in the usual August slow period. That is dependant on them defending any early drop down towards the pivot and 200ema at the 7652 level. Below this then we have 2 hour support at 7629.
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