19th November 2018
Friday saw the bulls fail to break the lower end of that resistance zone at 7090 to 7110, and we were briefly back below 7100 before a late stage rally again. Though we are back above 7000 it does still look weak, and the bulls failure to hold onto the 7150 area last Monday nor regain it keeps the bears in the hunt. Brexit political turmoil continues to weigh on the FTSE and cable. Today, the Prime Minister will use a speech to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to say the terms of the UK’s divorce from the EU have been “agreed in full” and the only thing left to discuss is the future trade deal.
Vice President Mike Pence sharpened U.S. attacks on China during a week of summits that ended Sunday. Most notably, he called for nations to avoid loans that would leave them indebted to Beijing. The tough talk has raised concerns that a new cold war is brewing for the first time since the Soviet Union fell in the early 1990s. Pence said the U.S. wasn’t in a rush to end the trade war and would “not change course until China changes its ways” — a worrying prospect for a region heavily reliant on exports. The meetings in Singapore and Papua New Guinea produced little to suggest U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping would reach a deal when they meet in a few weeks at the Group of 20 summit in Argentina.
U.S. stocks finished a rocky week on a high note on trade optimism. Any rally may be kept in check by lengthening odds of a thaw on trade when Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet at the Group of 20 that starts next week, following Pence’s attacks on China. Volume will likely be thinned by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week, potentially exacerbating swings. Treasuries advanced Friday after Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said policy is getting close to neutral and there’s some evidence of global slowing. The dollar fell against every G-10 peer including the pound, which remains subject to Brexit jitters.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
Going to be another tricky week to predict as the Brexit deal fall out continues. However, I am looking at similar levels today to those we had on Friday which is 7090 to 7110 resistance and 6975 to 6988 support areas. If the FTSE is fairly calm then we should see reactions at these levels again. We may even get a weak bull Monday…. In addition to the Brexit going ons, we also have the China/US trade tensions rumbling away in the background.
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