30th November 2018
Quite a choppy day yesterday on the FTSE 100 with a low of 7015 and a high of 7080 once again. The bulls still need to break 7080 to have any hope of that push towards 7200 or more. For today, the bulls will need to defend S1 at 7018 to start with and we could well see push up today, even more so if the 200ema at 7031 holds and if the noises from the US/China trade discussions are favourable. We also have the G-20 meeting starting today.
At the end of trading yesterday the FTSE 100 index was 0.49pc, or 34.48 points, higher at 7,038.95. But the FTSE 250 closed 0.16pc lower, or 30.70 points, at 18,609.03. In the Eurozone stocks were also mixed, with the Paris CAC rising 23.01 points, or up 46pc, to 5,006.25 and the Frankfurt DAX flat at 0.01pc down, or 0.65 points, to 11,298.23. Meanwhile on Wall Street, US stocks extended earlier losses.
President Donald Trump said he is very close to “doing something” with China ahead of a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping, raising expectations again that the two leaders may be able to hash out a ceasefire in their trade war. U.S. and Chinese officials have been working for weeks on the contours of a possible deal for the two leaders to be announced following their dinner on Saturday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires and a road map for talks to follow. Those discussions, according to people familiar with them, have centered on the possibility of a truce in which the U.S. would delay ramping up tariffs on China in exchange for Chinese concessions. The two leaders would also agree on a “framework” for further talks, U.S. officials such as Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross have said publicly.
Federal Reserve officials saw another interest-rate increase as likely warranted “fairly soon” even while they set the stage for more flexibility in their hiking trajectory going forward, according to the minutes of their Nov. 7-8 meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it might be appropriate to reprise the kind of adjustment that the central bank made in June to ensure that the effective fed funds rate remains “well within” the central bank’s target range — and such a move could even come before the December policy meeting if necessary.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
For today I am looking at an initial drop down off the 30min resistance area that we have that the 7050/60 level. We also have a 2 hour resistance at 7058 to start with today. If these hold as initial resistance then I can see a drop down to S1 at 7018, and possibly 7010 just below that. If these break then we are back looking at 6980 as support, with 6960 and 6900 below that. The ASX200 had a dip and rise sort of day and I am thinking that we may well see the same, though I am slightly cautious as we will start getting news flow from he G-20 meeting today, and also the US/China trade meeting. Fairly confident that 7010 will hold though as with the theme all week the bulls will be keen to defend the 7000 level.
On the upside, its still all about the 7080 level and the bulls need to break that to push higher towards the 7135 level. If they manage to break that then we should be on for 7200. Of course such a rise will bring everyone out saying its the Santa Rally, mo0re will hop on and we may push higher. There is a lot of expectation this year for this Santa Rally, mainly after the poor October trapping quite a few longs, but it is in no way guaranteed.
Fairly simple plan for today really though slightly cautious as its Friday. Looking for support at the 7010/7020 level, initial resistance at the 7050/60 level. Can the bulls push on today and finally break 7080? If they do then it is probably worth hopping on a long, certainly to target 7135 in the first instance, with 720 above that. Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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