FTSE 100 Support 6814 6803 6799 6749 6710 6699
FTSE 100 Resistance 6830 6832 6840 6889 6905 6944 6948

Good morning. Despite the large divi there wasn’t much of a last minute rise from the divi hunters. Probably as many people have wised up to that particular move now, so the market is just toying with everyone. I did do the One Touch binaries in the end as they were cheap to buy at around 7/8 points though they didn’t work in the end. The divi was mostly priced in with the rise at 12pm from 6825 to 6860. Yesterday the 2 hour chart capped the rise at the 6864 level where we have the Hull moving average resistance – if it hadn’t been for the divi then I would have held that 6857 short for a lot longer. The Dax just missed its order level by 3, whilst the gold trade yielded some points. A mixed bag yesterday, with the FTSE being fairly flat between 6825 and 6865.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks retreated from a one-year high and Malaysia’s ringgit weakened as signs of a worsening oil glut dragged crude prices lower. New Zealand’s dollar jumped and South Korea’s won fell following monetary policy reviews.

Shares of raw-materials producers and energy companies led declines in Asian equities as crude extended its slide below $42 a barrel following a surprise increase in U.S. stockpiles. The kiwi surged to a one-year high after the country’s central bank cutinterest rates and signaled a more gradual easing path than some investors had anticipated. The won slid from near a 14-month high as the Bank of Korea indicated it has room to cut borrowing costs from a record low. Nickel snapped a four-day advance and gold declined.

Crude entered a bear market last week, a sign global growth remains weak even as policy makers from Tokyo to Frankfurt engage in unprecedented stimulus to boost their economies. New Zealand joins Australia and the U.K. in having cut its benchmark rate to a record so far this month, while a strengthening jobs market in the U.S. has yet to convince traders the Federal Reserve will boost borrowing costs this year.

“The biggest risk to the market at the moment is a huge drop in oil prices,” said James Woods, a strategist at Rivkin Securities in Sydney. “We’ll see some near-term weakness in the coming weeks. Investors are likely to be buying on these dips as central bank policies remain supportive of equities.”

Singapore cut the top end of its 2016 growth forecast on Thursday after the economy expanded less than previously estimated in the second quarter. China Mobile Ltd., the world’s largest phone carrier by users, reported first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates. Financial markets in Japan are shut for a holiday.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.5 percent as of 12:36 p.m. Hong Kong time, halting a five-day advance. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.6 percent as Taiwan’s benchmark retreated from its highest close in more than a year.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 0.4 percent. The government revised its estimate of second-quarter growth to an annualized 0.3 percent from 0.8 percent and trimmed the top end of its 2016 forecast to a 2 percent expansion from 3 percent. The bottom of the projected range was kept at 1 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.1 percent after the underlying benchmark declined 0.3 percent on Wednesday, retreating from near to a record high. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index were little changed. Thyssenkrupp AG, Germany’s largest steelmaker, announced a drop in quarterly earnings.

Currencies

The kiwi rose as high as 73.41 U.S. cents, its strongest level since May 2015, before trading 1 percent stronger on the day at 72.78. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent. While the cut was expected by all 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the swaps market had priced in a 20 percent chance of a half-point reduction.

“Even though the 25 basis-point rate cut was fully priced in, there was uncertainty that the RBNZ could even have opted for a 50 basis-point rate cut,” said Angus Nicholson, a market analyst in Melbourne at IG Ltd. “Once the 50 basis-point fears turned out to be unfounded the kiwi dollar promptly rallied.”

South Korea’s won snapped a five-day advance, weakening 0.7 percent after reaching its strongest level in more than a year on Wednesday. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju Yeol kept the benchmark interest rate at 1.25 percent and said the authority has scope for more policy adjustments. The ringgit also fell 0.7 percent as the slide in crude prices dimmed prospects for Malaysia, the region’s only major net oil exporter.

Bloomberg’s dollar index, a gauge of the greenback versus 10 major peers, rose less than 0.1 percent. It ended the last session at a seven-week low as the probability of a U.S. interest-rate increase this year slipped to 41 percent in the futures market.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5 percent to $41.51 a barrel, after sinking 2.5 percent on Wednesday as official data showed U.S. supplies increased by 1.06 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a drop of 1.5 million barrels. Weakness in global crude markets may persist as demand slows seasonally and fuel inventories remain abundant, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday.“The risk is increasingly to the downside,” said IG’s Nicholson. “The trend from here could well be a much bigger and steady increase in U.S. crude inventories.”

Nickel lost 0.9 percent in London, slipping from a one-year high. Copper rose 0.2 percent and gold declined 0.3 percent.

Bonds

Yields on Australian bonds due in a decade fell for a third day, declining by two basis points to 1.85 percent. New Zealand’s two-year bonds fell and its 10-year notes advanced, flattening the so-called yield curve, following the central bank’s policy meeting.

U.S. Treasuries gained on Wednesday as 10-year notes were auctioned at the lowest yield in four years amid near-record demand from a group of buyers that includes foreign central banks and mutual funds. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

We dropped off the 2 hour resistance yesterday but most of that was to do with the divi and have held steady overnight at the 6820 area. We have support at 6803 from the 200ema on the 30min, with 6749 below that where we have the 10 day Bianca. If the bulls can hold that 6800 area then I can see a rise up to 6889 (and possibly 6905) where we have the 20 day Bianca channel. Above that the 10 day is at 6948. Initially the bulls will need to break the 6830 area where we have the daily pivot and the 30min coral – hence why I have plotted an initial drop down from here to the 6800 area with the arrows.

So, if all goes to plan, it s a fairly simple one, looking to go long around the 6800 area for a run to the higher resistance levels. However, if 6799 breaks then look to short for a run to 6750.