FTSE 1oo Support 6887 6881 6844 6834 6816 6716
FTSE 1oo Resistance 6928 6951 6980 6993

Good morning. Well, 6915, who would have thought that a few weeks ago! Wasn’t even much of a reaction at the 6890 level we shorted from, but the S&P did drop off the 2188 level with a clearer move. Despite a bit of a dip on the FTSE first thing it didn’t get as far at 6805 to trigger the long, and most of the rise in the afternoon was thanks to the Saudi oil minister saying that global “de-stocking” of oil will provide price support. Overnight saw a test of the 6920 level, and with support at 6885 today, and the top of the Bianca 10 day at 6993 it might not be long before we see 7000! 86% of IG clients are still short so might go a bit higher still to squeeze them out.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks were headed for the biggest weekly gain in a month as a U.S. equities rally and rebounding oil prices bolstered investor confidence amid signs China¹s economy is losing momentum. Norway¹s krone led gains among the currencies of crude-exporting nations.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index held near a one-year high after the S&P 500 Index rallied to a fresh record in the last session. Crude rose toward $44 a barrel amid speculation major producers will work together to stabilize the market after prices tumbled into a bear market last week. The yuan weakened as data pointed to a slowdown in China¹s economy, while the krone and the Canadian dollar strengthened for the fifth day in a row.

Optimism central banks will remain supportive of growth is underpinning gains in global equities as corporate earnings decline. Monetary authorities in Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. cut benchmark interest rates to records this month, while the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are using unprecedented stimulus to spur expansion. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year remains just shy of 50 percent in the futures market even as data show the U.S. economy is gaining momentum.

China¹s industrial output, retail sales and investment all slowed in July, with growth falling short of economists¹ estimates, reports showed Friday. U.S. retail sales are forecast to have increased for a fourth straight month, showing consumers continued to spend after the strongest quarterly advance since 2014.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was set for a 2.5 percent weekly advance as of 1:52 p.m. Tokyo time. It was little changed on the day as a measure of energy shares jumped 1.1 percent and financial stocks retreated.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.8 percent, headed for its highest close since November. CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. rose 1.8 percent and China Mobile Ltd. advanced for a second day after their earnings beat estimates. The Shanghai Composite Index was poised for its first weekly increase in a month.

“Though the economic data are weak, they are still within an acceptable range to investors,” said Wang Zheng, the Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management Co. “The rally in Hong Kong has fundamental support as earnings from its flagship companies are pretty strong.”

S&P 500 futures were little changed after the U.S. benchmark rose 0.5 percent in the last session. After predicting at the end of June that profit would expand 2.3 percent in the current quarter, analysts now see S&P 500 income contracting 0.6 percent. That would put U.S. companies on track for a sixth consecutive period of falling profits.

Commodities

Crude oil rose 0.9 percent to $43.88 a barrel in New York, headed for a 5 percent weekly jump. Informal discussions being held next month between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers may include possible action to stabilize the market, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in a statement, according to media reports, including Reuters. Global markets will continue to rebalance this year, the International Energy Agency said. “The Saudi comments gave the market some life,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney. “The talk is all about pushing the price higher and the market will speculate on whether they can actually pull a deal together. Calls from the IEA that the glut will start to shrink and consumption will pick up are also supportive.”

Copper fell 0.2 percent in London, trimming its weekly gain to 1.1 percent. Nickel lost 0.7 percent and aluminum was down 0.3 percent.

Currencies

The krone strengthened 3.3 percent versus the greenback this week, the best performance among major currencies and its biggest gain in 10 months. The currencies of Mexico and Canada, which are also oil-exporting nations, rose 2.7 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

The yuan weakened 0.1 percent, snapping a three-day advance. China¹s economic data also weighed on the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which lost 0.2 percent. The South Pacific nations both count China as their biggest trading partner.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent, reducing its weekly loss to 0.6 percent. The yen weakened 0.2 percent to 102.13 per dollar.

One-month forwards for Thailand¹s baht fell for the first time this week after a spate of bombings in tourist destinations including Hua Hin and Phuket that killed at least two people. The nation¹s financial markets are shut Friday for a holiday.

The commodity jumped more than 4 percent in the last session as Saudi Arabia was reported to be touting the prospect of an agreement on stabilizing prices at talks scheduled for next month in Algiers. China¹s factory output, retail sales and investment all slowed in July, expanding by less than economists forecast, data showed Friday.

Copper rose 0.3 percent in London, bringing its climb in the week to 1.5 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Well a Friday once again, and after yesterday bullishness and holding 6900 overnight, we have decent support on the 2 hour at 6886, so favouring a long here. That said, the ASX200 (Australia) was a bit more bearish in their session (it can give an indication of what the FTSE 100 will do as well, both being commodity biased). We have the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6928 today, though yesterdays level didn’t get much of a reaction (6889). The 10 day is a bit higher at 6993 which might be possible if the bulls continue in yesterdays vein.

I am thinking an initial dip from around the 6925 area to test the 6888 level before more upside, in a similar sort of pattern to yesterday. Whether the bulls can push on again remains to be seen, but I think it certainly wants to squeeze a few more shorters – certainly get that impression. The top of the 20 day Raff is at 6980 as well – so we may even halt the rise just shy of 7000. But, that said, I am sure the powers that be would like a headline grabbing test of 7000. Anyway, fairly simple play today, long at 6888, short at 6927 initially.