Good morning. The FTSE was buoyed by indications from the U.S. Federal Reserve late on Wednesday that the U.S. economy was strong enough to cope with an interest rate hike, which many expect it to decide on in December. Also expectations of more monetary support from the European Central Bank (ECB) next month helped push the markets upwards. The commodity sector was a strong early gainer but fell back in the afternoon on demand issues. House builders, banks and supermarkets were the weakest performers perhaps on the effects of the coming upward interest rate cycle.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks pared their biggest weekly advance in six weeks, with Japanese shares dragged lower by a stronger yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2 percent to 133.71 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, paring this week’s climb to 1.2 percent. The gauge posted the biggest daily jump in a month on Thursday amid optimism the Federal Reserve’s pace of tightening will be gradual, taking its rebound to 11 percent from a September low.
“The Fed has made it clear that its base case is for a lift off in December and if they were to break that, it would be a huge, market-moving event,” said Evan Lucas, Melbourne-based strategist at IG Ltd. “It’s been very positive for markets this week, with equities responding favorably to this macro picture.”
Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.4 percent, paring a fifth week of gains, as the yen held Thursday’s 0.6 percent advance. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who unleashed unprecedented monetary stimulus at the Bank of Japan in 2013 and doubled down on it last year, is done expanding his efforts, according to an increasing number of economists. He is due to speak on Friday.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index advanced 0.6 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.1 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.1 percent and those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.2 percent.
E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge is up 2.9 percent this week. The measure slipped 0.1 percent Thursday, after fluctuating throughout the day, as UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s profit warning rattled the health-care sector and oil’s descent sank energy producers. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook and Prediction
Bit more bullish than I expected yesterday with an eventual rise to the top of the Raff channels at the 6370 area, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting reassured investors the world’s biggest economy can withstand higher borrowing costs.. However, from there the bears reappeared with a dip back down. Looking at the 30minute chart there is more resistance than support on the face of it so I am favouring a slight dip today. We have resistance at the 6345/50 area so I think that any early bullishness might get tempered here, and we see a dip down to 6320 or lower.
Morning all FWIW Dax, FTSE and Dow day charts all seem to be saying dont rush to buy 🙂
What do you call a German who gets drunk after one Pint ? Einstein.
Ha ha I like that,tell you what WSF I’m really glad im not trading.i don’t think the present market conditions are tradable, there is absolutely no stability or trend that I can see?
Hi anstel,I have had a good week.I havent done my stats yet,but paid myself on Wednesday and I’m above last Fri.Mostly scalping 6’s and 7’s since Tues,pretty much been Long all week.The biggest loss I have carried was last night when I was down 30 or 40 odd on a Dax trade that was against that daily gravestone Doji and just about pre Draghi at 8.I’m not claiming that wasnt gambling and it has flattered my balance.I dont know why this has been a good week.I think it is because I am trying to move to Intraday and I’ve got a bit of a track record there now,so I’ve been confident and I have had good levels.I’ve been very protective of the downside because of the Intraday thing.This style of trading has never been net profitable for me for this long before and I think it is psychological,in the past I never had someone sitting there doing it day after day to watch,that has made all of the difference to me.Thanks TMFP and also Nick and his PDF re the 15min and 4hr charts for Intraday and the Forum.I sound like Gwyneth Paltrow,and I need atleast 3 months to prove anything,but a big thing for me has been dropping the Idea that because I have made larger timeframes work Intraday is just that scaled down.I hope I said something there that was useful.That Australian Video and the Stats eg with a 7 in 10 win rate you have 32% chance of 4 wrong trades in a row and an 11% chance of 5 is something it helps to remember;if you miss the trend change then you will hit a lot less than 7 in 10 and etc etc .I’ll shut up now before the Trading gods notice me.ATB.
Hi WSF all the information is gratefully received and noted,one thing I would mention (from a guy who’s made a big mistake so FWIW ) but you sound really upbeat.thats great,but it’s also the time when you are the most vulnerable.(some of my biggest mistakes and drawdowns came after periods of chunky gains,it made me think I was good,in fact although the money suggested otherwise I was anything but good. If I manage to pick myself up from this,which I’m in two minds about,im going to have a minimum account size and trade £1 pp how the hell am I going to pull back loses at that rate?if I can make £50 a week I’ll be pleased but when I look at what I have done many many times I wonder if it’s worth it.Its Consistency,I just can’t find it,it’s funny but with what I know now,if I had my starting account balance back again I feel confident I could make a living from this,but now I have more knowledge and less money.Oh and im almost scared of putting a trade on as well which as you probably know isn’t me. If I ever put another trade on and I don’t normally give up but if I do I’m going to wait till there is a reasonable good change of success,I know what to look for,the setups etc but they don’t present often,I’m just going to wait and watch,I really enjoy this but clawing back any losses is not going to happen as I will need to concentrate on risk awareness above all else good luck all.
I think that the consistency comes from the track record and the amount you trade doesnt have to be big to get that.Imagine if TMFP traded 50p a point with a 150 pound account..he would still make more than Job Seekers Allowance every week.Tony Loton took a trending mkt and ran 150 quid to 1500 or something twice and then got himself a job writing for The Motley Fool.I’m not Trading against what could be a Doji,Gravestone Doji and Shooting Star on the Dailys,but if I see an obvious scalp…and that isnt a hardship because I can watch a subtitled film instead.I absolutely think “clawing back any losses”can happen.Have you read,Reminiscences of a Stock Operator ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator
It is out of copyright except for the celebrity Introductions,plenty of copies on line and every time you read it you are different and see more.I bet you feel differently in a week or two and it will be different 🙂
Your reply means a lot to me WSF thanks for the encouragement seriously thanks, obviously I don’t want to mention numbers on here, but I have made winning trades on many many occasions,I have recovered a loss of 75% of the size I’m presently looking at before.It took me about 7 months but I was taking on too much risk to do it,I have regained lots of losses in this last year,quite big sums really and what has happened is I have had swing trades in red ink,I had a skin like an elephant and one of my strongish points in my mind but it’s open to opinion and lots of traders won’t like it but I would hold and hold and not let go.The three big events have been the Greek crisis,the run up to Aug 23 and last weekend.Its my risk management that is my problem,I really don’t like using stops,I know I know ,but I do like using trailing stops up behind profits,I like hedging but I consider the market to have too much potential upside unless it’s really necessary,do you know I was so close to hedging my position last weekend on Friday night, Anyway I have started from the ground up before at £1 a point,maybe I can do it?but this time i need to reign in the risk so it’s going to take a lot longer,I have considered a target of making £10 a day or £50 a week as an initial goal,then when I can double my account I will double my goal.If I start again it’s going to be with a £500 or £1000 account,so it’s under capitalised for sure but if I can do it with that sum I think it would be a fantastic achievement. I will probably be back,I’m not a quitter but I am very aware how hard it is good luck as always WSF.
Hi Anstel,
Did you think any more about what you’d like to do ?
Did you think about doing a demo a/c for a while.
– The IG one is very good.
It’s a good discipline to use a demo account seriously as I think one of the main things that “traders” often overlook is the agility of the mind and commitment to work the book.
Hiya Hugh,well it’s been a week of reflection for me,the more I step back and look from a distance the more I can see maybe that’s maybe we are on a hiding for nothing. Let’s look at what we are trying to do for a minute……..We are trying to guess which way an index is going, we have technical analysis which is a lagging indicator whichever way you look at it,we have a market that is anything but true market value so how much the fundamentals matter is anyone’s guess ,we have geopolitical uncertainty which can strike at anytime. I don’t know hugh it’s one big casino and it’s designed to play on human emotions and extract capital.That I’m afraid is my conclusion.Yes I would like to be in the 10% but I’m really doubting if I can make it.
I had thought of a Demo account,and I may well do that,undecided Hugh massively undecided but the market has my capital and I would like to try and nibble some of it back. It’s trying to regain losses that has got me here though. What to do?Good luck though to all as always.
Hi Anstel,
Sure – I understand what you’re saying.
I’m trying to think of something constructive to help you but my mind keeps going blank when I think about the leverage you were using, I think…that’s the issue.
£1= £6300 – £10=£63k . £20=£126K £30=£189K £40=252K & so on.
I would have suggested only trade with 1/5th of ” the bank ” and of that 2% Stops on any trade.
This has managing risk – as WSF touched upon earlier – written all over it.
If you want to do Short term trading on FTSE ,Trade a Demo A/c, seriously and only when you’ve turned the p/l account positive for 1 month would I even consider going on a live a/c.
(“Seriously” means doing all the due diligence that traders should always do – Up to date with News – upcoming news & technicals & Risk Assessment).
I know this is “mind numbing” stuff (demo a/c) – but it’s more about the developing a discipline and good habits than anything else.
You are completely and utterly right Hugh,my problem was one thing only……..Position Size! When I started I recognised a pattern on the Dow,it was on the run up to the QE reduction announcement.the Dow dropped on the Thursday evening then rebounded and I would buy as close to the bottom and sell just before the news,I made a bloody fortune,but Jesus,knowing what I know now was I lucky,I’m not going to mention position size but it was way too much, I did it about three times, I was making big money.Trouble is when you make big money it goes to your head and you get euphoric! It’s just a matter of time before the inevitable happens,tell you what though it’s was an experience for sure! What was easy then though was I was trading with a decent account of winnings and all my money was back to safety.Its amazing how much you can make when you are trading with profits!
Anyway yes it’s position size,that’s my number one failure,number two Is Risk management,both the same really,I had pulled my sizing right down,I could regularly get 8 winning trades on the run,but I would let them run against me,most of my best trades have run against me and if I had been using tight stops I wouldn’t have made the good winning trades,problem was after about 8 winning trades I increased the position size and obviously that was a big error,what I had started doing after number 8 was reducing my next trade position size by 50% as it had so often been the problem,
Yes I have been close I think but no cigar,maybe a demo account although without real money it’s not the same, I have the early thoughts of a new trading plan in my mind,you guys are all good with the technical stuff I’m only at a basic level so that need a look at but mainly is Risk I need to address £50 a week would be fantastic at this point if and when I can get back in the saddle. Good luck Hugh as always.
“maybe a demo account although without real money it’s not the same”
I know – but …make it the same …you know it makes sense…honestly ….do it for a day or a week at least.
If you win – feel pleased with yourself..
If you lose – go and buy a big round for everyone at the pub.
(Sounds like a win win to me 🙂
I think you are right Hugh a demo account is the way to go first.I love how you turn it all round to a win win by buying a round for the lads if I lose.
Did you ever see that Film “Kelly’s Heroes”
Hey man….like so many positive waves maybe we can’t lose!,,,,,,Donald Sutherland as Oddball .great film.
Anyway yes a demo account has its place in my revival plan.Just out of curiosity I wondered about posting on here a question……how many of us are in profit overall? If everyone answered honestly it might be very interesting.
Re question,Do you mean limiting what we are talking about to Spread Betting alone as a method ? or Trading using any method since it is the same underlying activity ?
Just purely CFDs and spread betting,effectively the same but with different tax liabilitys.
Yes ……who is in profit
…… And who has lost. Just CFDs and spread betting.
Just Spread Betting,I’m in profit,but it isnt an amount that divides into the hours and experience and comes out as worthwhile yet,but that is my fault and I did 300+% in 9 months with ETF’s once and if I had run that same trend with Spread Betting I wouldnt need to work at all.TMFP and all the famous names and thousands and thousands of unknown guys in their spare rooms are using variations on a skill that can be learnt,in my opinion,if you have the right mentality.
That’s interesting WSF at least you are up.obviously I am down,I have two friends that are down too. Common chaps chime in lets see who’s up and who’s down
WSF ………………………………………Up
Anstel……………………………………..DOWN
Senu……………………………………….?
Hugh…………….”………………………..?
Nick…………………………………………probably up
Tmfp………………………………………..probably up
Those ETF trades are just start to finish too I have never wanted to calculate what I spent during that period or the time cost of the breaks I took.It really brings home that there is always a market somewhere making someone rich.Someone reading this has probably been short metals for years and Oil for a year and to him it was obvious and the trading has been low stress.I slogged out a decent amount with nat gas once just trading around the Thurs report.Then the Mkt changed,but Shorting that the same way since then would have made a fortune.Didnt do it 🙁
options expiry day
It’s was also November Dow futures expiry.
Morning All,
Looks like another riveting day ahead – yawn…
It does look a bit tired here doesn’t it ..
Next week should be interesting if we break out of >6368 or < 6310
Since we all spend alot of time looking at small time frames…
Just using the 19 and 39 ema
FTSE 100 Bias Switch
1 Hour Bullish 6320
2 Hour Bullish 6295
3 Hour Bullish 6280
4 Hour Bullish 6273
anstel,
I think you are lacking discipline as every other traders do, including me (a lot).
May be you will have re-write your rule book and read it 10 times everyday in the morning before you start. Hope this helps. I have added few more points in my book recently after my mistakes and trying to avoid those. GL mate
Hey thanks Senu,yes I’ve been a bit of a wild card I suppose,I’m writing down all the things I did that were successful on one side of a book,and all the things that were wrong on the other side of the book,At the back of the book I’m putting things I need to improve on like technical analysis. The one area that has made me good money really belongs in the wrong throw away side and that’s stops,I don’t like using tight stops every trade I have made on has gone against me before it’s made me money so it proves my trading is not accurate enough,maybe that’s where the charts can help. That’s my problem now with my plan what to do about the stops.If we have a trade and it hits our stop and we lose 20 pts the next trade has to make 40pts to make 20 points overall.if our second trade hits our 20 point stop we then need 60 pts to make 20. I have tended to take the fluxuations and so long as I have had the underlying trade direction right it’s worked well. Does Warren Buffett trade with stops I wonder? Until I can come up with an answer to this I’m just watching,I think if I get the position size down letting it breath for me would be easy after some of the situations I have been in.I know it’s not in the text books but I still think it’s about having the bottle to hold your position, lots of head scratching going on here about that,if I can get my accuracy of my trading better I can use tight stops,Good Luck Senu as always mate.
Buffett buys undervalued stuff with a special deal on the cost,usually, though,so not the same.Interestingly i read a piece about his Amex trade recently and if he had bought at the wrong time/peak he would still have virtually the same Capital growth thanks to the compounding (time)and have received the same Dividends 🙂 I bet Soros had a line on his chart when he shorted Sterling and if the Trade had gone against him somehow he would have taken a bad year eg him in Asia etc etc all the losing Trades people dont know unless they have read his books.
You know what chaps,if I had to make a wild guess based on nothing more than a hunch I think the Dow is going to reach 18000 plus but the Ftse about 6500 ish then some news like QE 4 and a push up on dow to 19000 and FTSE 7100plus. I know it sounds crazy and I wouldn’t trade the idea but let’s just see,I bet you it happens? Then shorts would look attractive and tmfp can clear up Bigtime and maybe leave a few morsels for us! Have fun if you go to Malta tmfp.
Sounds good to me!
You just never know with this game,I shorted the Dow once it looked like the right position to take,then we got QE in Europe,QE in Japan I think it was and China pumped in some stimulus,gave me a right shock,the bloody Dow went against me 1200 points.i don’t think the toilet seat went cold for a few weeks but guess what……… I made a bloody profit on it!, but it was the wrong thing to do .
No sorry it was just Europe QE the Asian stimulus came later on from memory.
Nice bit of pumping there for you Si.
Think I will put an order in to short the Dow at 19500 :0)
I’m thinking of just switching it all off, leave the long on and then having a look on christmas eve. My balance will either say £0 or £10,000,000,000. 🙂
Lol I wonder if it’s a foot pump or a bike pump or an airline from the garage.
It’s the biggest p*ss take known to man,hey you never know it might hit 20,000 the Dow it’s good to know the global economic recovery is doing so well
Im just actually wondering what’s in the airline…….I’m thinking Helium most likely.
Hey Si if on Xmas eve it’s £10,000,000,000 any chance you could put 10k in a Xmas card for me? :0)
Funny you should say that. I was thinking the other day, if one of use happens to make £1m one day on a single trade, we should agree to split £100,000 of it between us.
Are spread betting firms dodgy? I have been reading up quite a bit about them recently and get the feeling they are constantly trying to deceive clients, in order, of course, to make them lose money. For example, let’s take an example. You open a bet and set a stop loss ten points away and the limit price twenty points away. Now, if the instrument gaps twenty points against you they will not honour the stop loss, and close the market twenty points (instead of 10 point stop loss), but if the market gaps in your favour by thirty points, they will close the trade at your limit price of twenty, denying the extra 10 points.
I also hear sometimes they deliberately widen a spread, a very momentary spike not reflected in the underlying markets, if they see an opportunity to close out clients at substantial loss.
I have also been reading the post of a member at Trade2Win forum who claims to have been been an employee of one of the spread betting firms, he claims that only two or three percent of clients make money.
Stop losses aren’t really worth much unless you pay for a guaranteed stop 3x pp. Yes if it gaps down stops don’t count and neither does lack of margin,read my posts from last Friday and this Monday carefully.Then put your shorts on and go for a swim down a river full of piranhas and see if you can then cross that shark infested sea! That’s what we are doing bloody crazy really.
engulfing weekly ?
Interesting here Senu the Dow at 17900 plus but Ftse struggling to get above 6350.somethings brewing ?
that’s the game in play.
Right I didn’t know what an engulfing candle was Senu,I looked it up,I do now,…..Am I right in saying, ( I have drawn a line across my weekly Ftse chart) that if the Ftse gets above about 6385 it’s bullish?
yes, its tricky going through the weekends. It is better to be a day trader and just look the trend for the day.
Thanks for teaching me that Senu,I think one of my things I have learnt is to not trade Friday’s in case I get stuck in over the weekend that’s caused two of my big blow ups,if I’m stuck in the future with a position over weekend I think I will pay for a guaranteed stop or hedge the position,it’s a lot cheaper if something should happen, I’m going to study the PDFs small print of the brokers terms Make sure a guaranteed stop will cut off losses if it gaps down………..another thing I haven’t been asked to pay the outstanding amount in my resources yet and the figure has gone up by one penny? I wonder why it would change ,I asked if I would be charged interest and the answer was no…..I wonder if that was true?
hey anstel
i have been asked many times – what exactly do i do?
i said i am a market trader.
to this they would inevitably say – how can you sell anything sitting at home?
i tried many times to explain, to no avail
that made me think -what do i actually do?
so after a lot of deliberation, i think that this is probably what i feel fits it the best
i am nothing but a bus driver, driving the same bus every day, from point (a) to point (b)
the route may be different every day with the same goal – to avoid the same pitfals, the car in front, the red traffic light, the idiot who turns in front of me without signalling and the cyclist who not wearing reflective coat or a light
to do this i follow the same rules, day after day. stop at a red light, go on a green light, stop when the moron steps in front of the bus and so on
and, and, most importantly when there is no traffic on the road i still drive at the speed limit on the road, when nobody is on the road – car or people, i still stop at a red light
all boring , but all safe. and i can keep driving the same bus on the same route for 30 years
————–
just find a simple set of rules and follow them, however boring it is. no fancy legwork or hard turn of the wheel. boring boring boring.
———–
that really sums up trading
Hey Paul I wondered where you and your wife had gone. Glad your still around.
That’s a really good analogy for trading ….really good….thanks for sharing find a set of rules,stick to them and repeat over and over. Thanks again,best of luck mate.
Long @ 41, 10 pt stop
out for b/e
That’s why I don’t like tight stops Senu,this will probably go up again,it’s so annoying.
Oh you got in before it went up,at least you didn’t lose then good.
it may go up from here, that MHH something.. it may also dip to 20. who knows? switching off completely.
Good weekend.
Good weekend Senu all the best mate.
Hi Anstel
I like reading your posts. You seem to put all the frustrations and anxieties we feel as traders out there into the public sphere.
One thought which may help…I hope. Is to forget about the lost money. It’s completely gone. You can’t win it back. Let it go and move on. Refund your account and start again. Otherwise, you’ll be constantly chasing losses, increasing position sizes and always be unhappy with the so-called ‘meagre’ returns you’ll be making.
Maybe try trading shares. They’re only open from 8 ‘til 4:30 and generally move slower. When you start trading you should to learn how to trade on the slowest possible time frame and only then get into faster moving markets. Most people love the thrill of trading and jump straight into trading £10 a point on the Dow!!
You talk about Warren Buffet and whether he uses stops. Spreadbetting the FTSE is completely different to buying and holding shares so they’re not comparable in my opinion. He’s buying and holding using long term fundamental valuations. If the price tanks, he’ll look at the industry, the wider economy and see whether the shares still represent good value and have similar prospects to when he bought them. Spreadbetting the FTSE is just pure speculation.
Another point is learn simple technical analyse. The majority of technical traders just use simple support and resistance levels and solid risk management. That’s all you need. Technical indicators are just smoke and mirrors. They also lag. The price and patterns tell you everything.
Finished for the week,think I’ll skip the Sunday nightshift too 🙂 .Have a good weekend everyone.
Evening All
As I’m going to be in and out, doing other things on Monday.
From a brief look at things..
Bias – Range Trade Bullish
Some Euro News PMI figs between 8 – 9 am
Trade’s I’ve put in mainly from PRT Levels and PPs
Long 6294 & 6286 Stop 6277 Tgt 6340
Short 6350 – Stop 6375 – Tgt 6306
Short 6368 – Stop 6375 – Tgt 6335
If it goes higher to 6410 – I’ll look at Shorting against the PRT Trend Line That is running down.
looks like FTSE over reacting ?!