Asia declines | 6695 resistance FTSE 100 | 6675 support | 6730 short term top?

FTSE 100 Support 6675 6672 6665 6617
FTSE 100 Resistance 6692 6699 6701 6711 6769

Good morning. Nice short from the 6720 area yesterday though the bulls fought back later in the day to retest the daily high. I think though that might be a short term top and we are on a leg down to 6500 now.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • S&P 500 Index fell from a record amid mixed set of earnings
  • Ringgit sinks as 1MDB scandal in focus; yuan strengthens

Asian stocks pulled back from an eight-month high and the yen held gains as prospects for central bank stimulus cooled in Japan. Malaysia’s ringgit fell to this month’s low, while the yuan strengthened.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined after U.S. shares retreated from a record amid a mixed batch of U.S. corporate earnings. Japan’s Topix index dropped from a six-week high after central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s opposition to so-called helicopter money became clear. Malaysia’s ringgit slipped for a fifth day as corruption probes into a state investment fund remained in the spotlight and oil traded below $45 a barrel. The yuan rose for a fourth day as China issued 30-year sovereign bonds at the lowest cost since at least 2008.

Equity markets had been on a roll, gaining more than $4.5 trillion in three weeks on speculation authorities in Asia and Europe will add stimulus to stoke inflation and growth, while positive surprises in U.S. corporate results also supported the rally. The gains drove global stock valuations to a one-year high, leaving the securities vulnerable to any disappointments on the policy and earnings fronts. Kuroda, in a BBC Radio interview recorded on June 17 and aired on Thursday, said there was no possibility of introducing helicopter money, which would involve the BOJ’s direct financing of government spending.

Preliminary gauges of this month’s manufacturing activity in the euro area and the U.S. are scheduled for release on Friday, while General Electric Co., American Airlines Group Inc. and Thales SA are among companies reporting earnings. Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 nations are scheduled to hold weekend talks in China that are seencovering the weakening outlook for the global economy as well as exchange-rate policies.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.6 percent as of 2:13 p.m. Tokyo time, trimming this week’s advance to 0.4 percent. The Topix dropped 1.3 percent, leading declines among regional benchmarks.

Nintendo Co. rose 1 percent as Pokemon Go became available in Japan. The stock has almost doubled this month owing to the success of the game.

Futures on the S&P 500 declined 0.1 percent after the gauge lost 0.4 percent in the last session. So far, 115 of the benchmark’s members have released quarterly results and 81 percent of those beat analysts’ profit estimates. Earnings are nonetheless falling for the fifth quarter in a row, the longest streak since 2009.

Currencies

The yen rose 0.1 percent to 105.70 per dollar, having surged 1 percent on Thursday as Kuroda’s remarks ruling out the prospect of helicopter money were broadcast. People familiar with the discussions at the central bank have indicated that an increasing number of officials are concerned about the sustainability of the current framework for massive monetary stimulus. Japan’s currency is still down 0.8 percent for the week.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their weekly declines amid speculation central banks in both countries will cut interest rates from record lows. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said Thursday further monetary easing is probably needed to boost inflation, while the Reserve Bank of Australia noted on Tuesday that the economy probably cooled last quarter and inflation is set to remain weak. The Aussie and the kiwi retreated at least 1.3 percent this week, the biggest declines among 16 major currencies.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was poised for a third weekly gain as signs of improvement in the U.S. economy revive expectations for interest-rate increases. A report on Thursday showed sales of previously owned homes climbed to a nine-year high and futures traders are pricing in a 45 percent chance the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs by December, up from 12 percent at the start of the month.

Malaysia’s ringgit slid 0.7 percent, taking this week’s loss to about 3 percent. U.S. prosecutors said they plan to seize assets after more than $3.5 billion was misappropriated from 1Malaysia Development Berhad, a state development fund known as 1MDB that was previously headed by Prime Minister Najib Razak. Singapore and Switzerland said they confiscated assets in connection with the alleged fraud.The yuan strengthened 0.1 percent, headed for its first weekly gain in seven weeks amid speculation the central bank was seeking to limit losses. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Friday the nation’s economy is growing steadily and the exchange rate will be kept stable at a reasonable level.

Commodities

Oil was set for a weekly decline as the U.S. heads toward the end of its summer-driving season with ample crude and motor fuel stockpiles. The price, which was little changed on Friday, fell 2.7 percent this week to $44.72 a barrel in New York.

“It’s an inventory story,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney. “The summer drive-time hasn’t been as strong as some had expected. There’s more supply coming on and there are indications that the strength of the global economy is not there.”

Copper fell 0.4 percent in London, trimming its weekly advance to 0.8 percent. Nickel and zinc retreated from their highest closes in at least 11 months once trading got under way on the London Metal Exchange, having been delayed owing to a technical problem. Gold fell 0.4 percent, set for a second weekly loss.

Iron ore in China was headed for the biggest weekly loss in two months, sliding about 7 percent on concern a global supply glut will endure.

Bonds

U.S. Treasuries stabilized this week with the 10-year yield hovering around 1.55 percent. That compares with an all-time low of 1.32 percent on July 7.

Ten-year sovereign bonds in Australia and New Zealand extended their weekly gains on Friday as prospects for monetary easing bolstered demand for the securities. Australia’s yield dropped by eight basis points this week to 1.89 percent and New Zealand’s slid 14 basis points to 2.23 percent.

China sold 30-year sovereign debt at a yield of 3.43 percent, the lowest in Bloomberg data going back to 2008. Similar-maturity notes yield 2.27 percent in the U.S. and 0.26 percent in Japan. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Looking like the worm might have turned for the bears and we get some downside from the 6690 area today, as we have the 200ema on the 30min at 6692 and the daily pivot at 6699. Shorts around this area this morning for a run down to 6650 or lower could be good. I am thinking though that we are going to get a dip to 6500 next week, so could set up some swings to hold for the next few sessions as well. The top of the 10 day Bianca channel has dropped a bit lower while the FTSE has trod water around the 6700 area over the past couple of sessions.

16 Comments

  1. Morning chaps…..well I’ve had a good week and it’s Friday so I’m calling time for this week……looks like it’s best alone to me anyway….good luck all……catch up next week….

  2. Morning Chaps!! YEsterday short closed @ 70 this morning than had to go for a run !! glad I came out curretnly short from 6713!! This is fun

  3. ftse 100 rises on poor pmi data big trader still betting on more QE/stimulus in August, trying to short this will just be like throwing money away at the moment.

  4. I am curious to know why there is no dividend for last two weeks ? And how that is worked out? Any Information would be welcome

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