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FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 6th January 2023
Asian equities gained on Friday while the dollar hovered near a one-month high as investors braced for crucial U.S. jobs data later in the day that should provide clues on how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in tightening policy.
Todays big event is of course the NFP payroll data, due out at 1330. As such we may well see a rise and dip play out today – buy the rumour, sell the news. According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls are forecast to show that 200,000 jobs were created in December, easing from November’s 263,000 pace.
Initial resistance is at 7670 this morning with 7722 above that. The 7670 level has held overnight and we also have R1 just above this, along with the key fib to start with. The bulls will be keen to break above this, having now managed to break and hold above the 7600 level, with 7700 now in their sights!
Above the 7722 level then 7750 is the next daily level of note and a rise to that today would certainly set the tone of an optimistic week for the FTSE100 to start the year. Much more so than the other markets, most of which closed red yesterday apart from the FTSE100!
Support wise, we have the 30m coral now green at 7644 to start with, and then the daily pivot below that at the 7620 level. Should we drop down to here then a long here is worth a go, as we had previous resistance also at this level which may well now become support.
Below that then 7575 is the 200ema on the 30m, the key fib and just below S1. The bears could potentially take it that low, and of course is NFP Friday so a bit of choppiness is highly likely.
The 2h chart remains bullish and the coral is still green (this is a trend indicator) with the 7575 also showing as support here. As such, should we dip to this area then I would like to see it hold.
Cable is also helping to underpin the FTSE100 at the moment as it dips back below the 120 level. The 2h and above time frames are also bearish, so a possible slide further on that – which would in turn help the FTSE100 for a bit longer.
The S&P500 is a bit more bearish, and in fact the 2h chart has 3836 as resistance from both the Hull MA and the coral so should we see this level then a short here is worth a go. Possibly a NFP spike up to this level then a drop…. The daily chart also looks more pessimistic since the test of the 25ema at 3880 on Tuesday, though they are doing a good job so far of defending the 3800 level. How much longer for thought!
So, it will probably pay to be a bit more cautious today as we see out the first week of the year with an NFP Friday. Good luck today and have a great weekend!
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