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FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th January 2023
Asian stocks fluctuated as investors weighed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and looked toward the release of US inflation data on Thursday for clarity on the trajectory for interest rates.
Stock gauges in Australia and Southeast Asia fell, while those in mainland China fluctuated and Japan’s Topix Index advanced after reopening following a public holiday. Contracts on the S&P 500 slipped after the index failed to stay above the 3,900 level, erasing an advance that reached almost 1.5% Monday.
The bulls had a good go yesterday but failed just shy of the 7750 level, where we have decent resistance still. The S&P500 also gave up its early gains, despite pushing past the 3925 resistance it managed 3950 before selling off. Both of those moves set up a bear Tuesday pretty well so shorting the rally today feels like the right play.
Initially today we have red 30m coral resistance at 7700, and that ties in with the daily pivot as well. The bulls will be keen to push past this though, but then we have the Hull MA resistance on the 2h at 7723 – and with that being just below yesterday’s high we could set a lower higher here and another drop off. The UK backdrop continues to be pessimistic, with the focus swinging onto employment at the moment, and the fact that firms aren’t looking for workers – inevitable given a business slow down and wage demands.
Above the 7723 level then 7743 is the key fib and the next level of note, along with R2 at 7751. I don’t think that we will break above this today as it also aligns with the daily resistance. That said the Raff channels continue to head up so on the longer timeframes it still looks bullish – but we may well see a bit of consolidation today.
Support wise, 7673 to start with is the 2h coral and as such that well may see us have an initial spring up from here. If the bears were to break below this then 7660 is S1, but the key fib, 200ema and S2 level at the 7640 area looks to be stronger support. I would actually like to see this hold to set up the bulls for another move above the 7700 level tomorrow.
Below that though then 7603 is S3 and a drop that low will be the bulls capitulating, so I am not expecting us to slide there today. The S&P500 looks like it will defend the 3855 area where we have the 2h coral so should hold, though above this we have 2h Hull support at 3879, so again, that could be the catalyst for an initial bounce before sliding off the 3920 area again.
So, looking at a bit of a rise and dip to play out today. Good luck.
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