Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 17th September 2025
We got the bear Tuesday yesterday with the test of the 9200 level having broken 9260. The bears will be looking to continue to drive it down today, which will be helped by this morning's CPI and RPI news that costs continue to increase (no surprise and official figures still on the conservative side imho). As such, should we see any early rally towards the daily pivot resistance at 9226 this looks to be a good level for them to attempt a drive down to the 9165 S1 and 9150 daily support levels. We also have the bottom of the still rising 10d Raff channel at the 9165 level.
With the initial play to short the rallies, then I would like to see the 9150 level hold, at least on its first test and a climb back up. The bulls are on the back foot as you can see from the trends table with the short term indicators across the board currently locked in as bearish.
If the bears were to break below the 9150 level then further downside towards 9000 may well play out (and remember that September is traditionally weak) before the end of year rally kicks in. A headline yesterday showed fund managers are underweight UK equities at a level not seen in many years, which may well be an attempt to scare retail into selling more stocks, which the funds will then start to buy up - fuelling the year end rally. It's worth always using the MSM to our advantage and if they are pushing a particular rhetoric it's usually a good contrarian indicator.
Yesterday's data shows pay and jobs growth slowing which will tend to reduce inflationary pressure and might reduce expectations for further interest rate hikes. However, the looming budget and further tax rises will weigh on sentiment.
Above the 9226 level today and the bulls will be aiming for the 9253 200ema and R1 at 9261 - if it were to test this R1 level then a short here is also worth a go. As mentioned, shorting the rallies this morning looks to be the favoured play. Above that and then we will have 9320 back in the sights as we have R2 here, with the 9342 recent high above that. That feels a big ask for today though!
Ideally today we see the 9226 - 9150 range to hold out.
For the S&P500 we got a decent rise and dip yesterday and that has set the 2h chart as bearish with 6630 as the main resistance . That is just above the initial resistance from the daily pivot at the 6616, so again look to short any rally that gets to this zone. A drop down to the 6585 support area looks possible today, as we have the 30m 200ema and S2 levels here to hold as support. The bottom of the 10d Raff channel is also at S2 to lend some weight to this support.
Similar scenario of the DAX40 with a test of the daily pivot and at 23504 before a dip down to the support at the 23311 level where we have the key fib. The 2h chart is now bearish again and has 23550 as Hull MA resistance. 23300 is also the bottom of the 10d Raff channel - that 250 point range would be good to see play out today. A break lower would though see S1 at 23220, which a move higher would look to test the 23650 level. It's consolidated a bit overnight around the 23400 level so an initial rise may well be likely.
Good luck today.
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