FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 moved higher yesterday as energy shares lifted by upbeat results from oil major BP outweighed weakness in mining shares. After falling as much as 0.9pc, the blue-chip index recouped early losses to end 0.2pc higher at 7,561.
BP gained 5.8pc as the oil major boosted its share buyback programme after net profit soared to its highest in more than a decade on strong oil and gas trading results. Miners were hit by lower copper and aluminium prices.
Bonds came under pressure Wednesday and U.S. equity futures were subdued as investors braced for the biggest Federal Reserve interest rate-hike since 2000 and awaited more clues on how pugnaciously it will tackle inflation.
Stocks face another volatile session in the U.S., with traders awaiting more clues on whether the Federal Reserve will be able to pull off a soft landing that brings down inflation without triggering a recession. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points Wednesday and announce a reduction in its balance sheet.
In Asia, stocks fell amid a slide in Chinese technology firms in Hong Kong. Sentiment soured toward the latter after the U.S. began a probe into Didi Global Inc.’s chaotic 2021 debut in New York. Markets in Japan and China are closed.
Fresh Objectives
Nearly 10 weeks into the war and with its troops making only marginal gains in Ukraine’s east, Russia is focused on cementing both military and political control over the territory it has taken so far. The Kremlin is installing occupation governments, ordering locals to use rubles for transactions and planning hastily organized referendums in some areas to open the way for full annexation. Zelenskiy’s military, backed by infusions of heavy weapons from the U.S. and its allies, plans a push to retake territory. Meanwhile, the European Union is set to propose a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th May 2022
Buckle up today…. its Fed Day! Rumours of a 50 basis point interest rate rise are probably costed in so far and if they do less than that, maybe just the 25bps then we may well see a rally later on. On the past few occasions we have seen a multi session bearish run into the news then a significant rally in the sessions after. Will we see the same again? We have certainly had the bearish run on the S&P ahead of this one!
For today we may well get a rise dip rise play out, and the FTSE100 is just flirting with the 7578 daily resistance level. We had a bit of a drop off it yesterday evening but the bulls held on well yesterday for a decent showing. Initially therefore we may well see another test of that level first thing but if the bears do appear here then a drop down to the 7505 area could play out for a test of the 30m 200ema.
Above the 7578 level then the next key level I am watching for is R2 at the 7648 level as this is also just below the top of both the Raff channels and also daily resistance at 7644. As such, should we see this level then a drop off from here would make sense.
For the bears, they will be looking to break below the 7550 level that had held well overnight, as that would open a drop down to test the Hull MA on the 2h at 7530, and possibly even as low as the 200ema on the 30m at 7505. S1 for today is just below this at the 7485 level, and we also have the key fib here. Feels a bit too bearish to get there but todays theme is going to be choppy!
S&P500
The 2h chart has gone bullish now and that has the 4155 level as support, hence the overnight defence of this. The bulls will need to break above the 4200 level which we dropped off yesterday as that will open up a rise towards the 4250 level. R2 is at 4238 prior to this so we could see a spike up to this later on if the market reacts well to the news. The Fed is at 7pm.
Support is at the 4142 S1 level if the bears were to break the daily pivot at 4171. Again a rise dip rise may well play out on this.
Dax40
Nice trade on this yesterday in the end, and the 14114 resistance level looks like it might get tested today. The 2h chart is also bullish on this, and a rise to this level before dropping off ahead of the Fed would make sense. 13921 is key fib support so any dip down to here may well bounce here. The 2h chart is weakly bullish, whilst the Raff channels continue to head down, so the bulls do have their work cut out. On the flip side the 2h coral is bullish with 13960 support as well.
Good luck today and don’t forget the Fed at 7pm!
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