FTSE 100 technical analysis for 11th August 2023
GDP improves but bulls on the back foot
The FTSE 100 closed 0.41pc higher at 7,618.60, while the domestically-focused FTSE 250 midcap index ended 0.3pc up at 18,993.81. The FTSE 100 underperformed against its European counterparts, with France’s stocks surging 1.52pc and Germany’s up 0.91pc.
Asian stocks edged towards a weekly loss on Friday and the U.S. dollar was headed for a month of gains after U.S. inflation came in steady, without the hoped-for surprise on the downside.
Headline U.S. CPI was 0.2% last month, the same as a month earlier, and the details were encouraging - with core goods inflation slowing down and only rents proving stubbornly sticky.
FTSE 100 technical analysis - GDP improves but bulls on the back foot
Decent reaction at the 7625 short order level yesterday and the bears have managed to drop it off back below the 7600 level. A result of which we now have the red 30m coral resistance at 7599 and 7593 for the daily pivot. We may well see any early rise falter here and then some more downside from here, to test the 7550 area where we have daily support and also the green 2h coral (as yet untested since the colour change, and now support).
Above 7600 then a retest of yesterdays high at 7625 would be likely, and then I am looking at resistance above that at 7680 where we have the top of the 10d Raff channel. That may well be a big ask for the bulls today but the just released GDP data (positive, slight beats across the board) may well help them.
Initial support this morning is at the 200ema on the 30m at 7571 and we have held this overnight as well. 7562 is S1 but looking more likely to be tested (and hopefully hold!) is the 7550 area where we have the supports mentioned above.
Should the bears break 7550 though then a slide to 7531 to test S2 would probably occur, and then below that the 7486 is the green daily coral. I don't expect us to get that low today, and we may well see a push up from the S&P500 today if the 4450 level holds on any test. Again, they will be keen to get that above the 4500 level and hold it this time, as the bears killed the rise at 4525 yesterday.
News flow is getting slightly more positive again across the board which may well help to give the remainder of August strength.
The 2h Dax chart is bullish still, and had 15900 as Hull MA support - the bulls will be looking to defend any drops to this and as with the others will then be aiming to break above the round number, 16000 in this case. With the key fib and the S1 both at 15865 then I would like to see any drop to this defended and a rise towards 16050 or higher. The green 2h coral is currently at 15845 but rising, and may well be around 15855 later, to help give that area some support as well.
As it's Friday be slightly more cautious - if still short from 7625 then trail the stop and take some profit at this 7575 level.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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