Quote from Nick on 24th February 2022, 9:56 am

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 ended the day flat as investors awaited Russia's next move after Western sanctions were imposed on Moscow for ordering troops into separatist regions of eastern Ukraine. The blue-chip index closed at 7,498, with Barclays up 3.1pc after its annual profit nearly trebled as bad loan charges plunged and its investment bank continued its strong recent performance.

Then it all kicked off........

U.S. equity futures and stocks tumbled Thursday while bonds jumped and oil soared as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to order a military attack on Ukraine cast a pall over global markets.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts slid more than 2%, signaling the latter, tech-heavy gauge may end up in a bear market. European futures shed almost 4% and an Asia-Pacific equity gauge fell to the lowest since 2020. The Moscow Exchange suspended trading across all markets.

Russian forces assaulted targets across Ukraine after Putin ordered an operation aimed at demilitarizing the country, prompting Ukraine’s foreign minister to warn of a “full-scale invasion.” Ukraine imposed martial law.

Putin said Russia doesn’t plan to “occupy” its neighbor, but that Russia must “defend itself from those who took Ukraine hostage” -- the U.S. and its allies who had crossed Russia’s “red line” with expansion of the NATO alliance.

Crude surged on possible risks to Russian energy exports, with Brent scaling $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. The flight to safety saw the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fall below 1.90%. Gold hit the highest since early 2021.

The dollar and yen jumped, while the euro and commodity-linked currencies retreated. The ruble hit a record low versus the greenback in interbank trade.

Western powers condemned the military incursion and vowed to step up penalties on Russia -- President Joe Biden said the U.S. and its allies will impose “severe sanctions.”

The cost of everything from oil to grains to metals has jumped on worries that raw-material flows will be disrupted by the unfolding crisis. Ukraine is a major grain exporter and sanctions could isolate Russia, a commodity powerhouse.

That backdrop heralds fresh challenges for a global recovery that was already struggling with elevated price pressures and tightening monetary policy.

State of Emergency
President Joe Biden expanded sanctions against Russia on Wednesday, as Ukraine declared a state of emergency. New U.S. penalties were aimed at the company that built the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and its corporate leadership. The penalties are on top of a package announced a day earlier after Vladimir Putin moved to recognize breakaway territories in Ukraine as independent states. China said it opposed sanctions and called U.S. actions “immoral.” Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that leaders of the self-proclaimed separatist republics had written to Putin for help repelling Ukraine.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 24th February 2022

BE CAREFUL TODAY! Trying to do technical analysis today is a very hit and miss affair.

We now down at the daily 7280 support level as I write this, though there is the potential to drop down to the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel at 7255 and possibly even the daily 200ema at 7218 below that.

We may well see a bit of a defence initially from the bulls though as the war scenarios are gamed, and the upside that rate rises and associated cost of living increases could be deferred. That may well see a rise towards the 7450 level again, though of course it all depends how the "invasion" plays out over the next 24 hours. The West will impose sanctions of course though what effect that has remains to be seen. The main thing will be the increase in Oil and Gas.

Below 7218 then we have 7150 and 7100 as the round number levels, though 7225 spike low from 25th January could help add weight to the double bottom here.

If the bulls were to step up today then a rise to initially backtest the 7360 previous support level. I have plotted the arrows to go to 7450 - that maybe too optimistic but we shall see. Sometimes the market reacts in a perverse way to these sort of events.

The S&P500 may well slide to its 20d Raff at 4070, as its just dipping below the 10d Raff at 4125 as I write. S3 is down at 4038 as well at the moment.

So, once again, be cautious, not a lot of technical analysis is relevant today as it will be sentiment driven with likely over reactions across the board. The slight glimmer is that equities are at the bottom of the Raff channels while Gold is at the top of its ones.

Good luck today and please stay cautious - the market is always there and sitting on the sidelines is sometimes the best place to be!

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