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The inevitable market bounce as the war starts | 7330 7400 resistance | 7275 7225 support

#1 · 25th February 2022, 9:34 am

Quote from Nick on 25th February 2022, 9:34 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

I hope you navigated yesterday's volatility safely. Buying the dip and having the long bias was certainly the correct play!

Global stocks plunged while the pound was in freefall as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through markets.

Sterling plunged 1.5pc against the dollar to $1.3348, putting it on track for its worst day since the Bank of England’s shock decision to hold interest rates in November.

Equities crashed as investors ditched riskier assets and flocked to safe havens. Wall Street tumbled at the open but pared back its losses after Joe Biden announced additional sanctions on Russian banks and said the US would release more strategic oil as conditions warrant. The FTSE 100 dropped 3.9pc, while European stocks shed over 3pc.

Oil surged past $105 a barrel then retreated to $93 and gas prices jumped 41pc amid fears the war could disrupt energy supplies to Europe.

Stocks climbed Friday, crude oil rose and U.S. equity futures slipped as the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions on Russia muddied the outlook for markets and the global economic recovery.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge advanced the most in over a week, aided by the technology sector as well as China, where the central bank boosted liquidity.
U.S. futures fell in a sign of lingering investor caution over the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wall Street rebounded Thursday in a wild session that saw the Nasdaq 100 close up 3.4% after flirting with a bear market.

Brent oil scaled $100 a barrel again. Treasuries were mixed, while Australian and New Zealand bonds slid. The dollar dipped. Gold topped $1,910 an ounce.
President Joe Biden imposed stiffer sanctions on Russia, promising to inflict a “severe cost on the Russian economy” that will hamper its ability to do business in foreign currencies. But the U.S. and its allies spared Russia’s oil exports and avoided blocking access to the Swift global payment network.

Biden’s announcement leaves markets “looking at some additional sanctions being added, but certainly not as bad as it possibly could have been,” Emily Weis, macro strategist at State Street Corp., said on Bloomberg Television. That contributed to the Wall Street “risk rally,” she added.

The Ukraine conflict raises the risk of an inflation and growth setback for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters, while Russia is also rich in energy and metals. Supply disruptions could stoke already-high price pressures just as the Federal Reserve prepares to tighten policy.

Invasion Intensifies
Kyiv may fall to Russian forces in a matter of hours, according to a senior Western intelligence official. Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated and the Russian military controls several airfields it could use to funnel in more troops. So why the invasion? Putin’s end game is seen as removing the government in Kyiv to install a puppet regime. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed to defend his country and insisted that he and his government will remain in the capital.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 25th February 2022

An interesting day ahead again today and if Putin is just going to stick with "demilitarising" Ukraine rather than occupying they may well capture Kyiv today and Ukraine will fall. That then may be the end of it for the moment and we can go into an uneasy weekend watching for the consequences. The bounce yesterday has managed to stick pretty well and we may well see a dip and rise play out today again as the West will not want to see their markets tanking as a result of the Russian moves.

For today we have initial resistance looming at 7330 with the 2h Hull MA here so should we get an initial rise we could see the bears have a crack here. The FTSE has actually held up pretty well this year so far, but is the one with the bearish set up on the 2h chart. Whereas the 2h chart for the S&P500 and Dax40 are both bullish with support at 4197 and 14130 respectively. As such should those dip down to those levels then we could see a bounce on them, and that may well help the FTSE pull back up.

Above the 7330 level then 7350 is the daily resistance level and just above the key fib for today so should it overshot then keep and eye on this area. Above this then 7400 is the 200ema on the 30m and with R1 at 7427 we may well see bulls from yesterday start to bank in this area if it were to get that high. Seems a bit of a big ask to get much past 7400 at the moment though. Not many will want to hold over the weekend just in case things escalate.

Support wise we have decent looking support at 7225 to start with as we have the green coral here on the 30m and the key fib for today. A break of this though and we will likely drop down to retest yesterdays low at 7175 and in fact we have the bottom of the 20d Raff now at 7165 as well to lend some support to this area. Below this then 7056 is the next key level of note, with the round number 7000 below that.

If Kyiv falls today and the fighting abates then we may well see markets pause for thought from any aggressive selling as we await the next move.

So, again be slightly cautious and also usual Friday shenanigans likely to play out but watching 7330 and 7400 for resistance; 7225 and 7175 for support.

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.

Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits

Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

I hope you navigated yesterday's volatility safely. Buying the dip and having the long bias was certainly the correct play!

Global stocks plunged while the pound was in freefall as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through markets.

Sterling plunged 1.5pc against the dollar to $1.3348, putting it on track for its worst day since the Bank of England’s shock decision to hold interest rates in November.

Equities crashed as investors ditched riskier assets and flocked to safe havens. Wall Street tumbled at the open but pared back its losses after Joe Biden announced additional sanctions on Russian banks and said the US would release more strategic oil as conditions warrant. The FTSE 100 dropped 3.9pc, while European stocks shed over 3pc.

Oil surged past $105 a barrel then retreated to $93 and gas prices jumped 41pc amid fears the war could disrupt energy supplies to Europe.

Stocks climbed Friday, crude oil rose and U.S. equity futures slipped as the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions on Russia muddied the outlook for markets and the global economic recovery.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge advanced the most in over a week, aided by the technology sector as well as China, where the central bank boosted liquidity.
U.S. futures fell in a sign of lingering investor caution over the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wall Street rebounded Thursday in a wild session that saw the Nasdaq 100 close up 3.4% after flirting with a bear market.

Brent oil scaled $100 a barrel again. Treasuries were mixed, while Australian and New Zealand bonds slid. The dollar dipped. Gold topped $1,910 an ounce.
President Joe Biden imposed stiffer sanctions on Russia, promising to inflict a “severe cost on the Russian economy” that will hamper its ability to do business in foreign currencies. But the U.S. and its allies spared Russia’s oil exports and avoided blocking access to the Swift global payment network.

Biden’s announcement leaves markets “looking at some additional sanctions being added, but certainly not as bad as it possibly could have been,” Emily Weis, macro strategist at State Street Corp., said on Bloomberg Television. That contributed to the Wall Street “risk rally,” she added.

The Ukraine conflict raises the risk of an inflation and growth setback for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters, while Russia is also rich in energy and metals. Supply disruptions could stoke already-high price pressures just as the Federal Reserve prepares to tighten policy.

Invasion Intensifies
Kyiv may fall to Russian forces in a matter of hours, according to a senior Western intelligence official. Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated and the Russian military controls several airfields it could use to funnel in more troops. So why the invasion? Putin’s end game is seen as removing the government in Kyiv to install a puppet regime. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed to defend his country and insisted that he and his government will remain in the capital.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 25th February 2022

An interesting day ahead again today and if Putin is just going to stick with "demilitarising" Ukraine rather than occupying they may well capture Kyiv today and Ukraine will fall. That then may be the end of it for the moment and we can go into an uneasy weekend watching for the consequences. The bounce yesterday has managed to stick pretty well and we may well see a dip and rise play out today again as the West will not want to see their markets tanking as a result of the Russian moves.

For today we have initial resistance looming at 7330 with the 2h Hull MA here so should we get an initial rise we could see the bears have a crack here. The FTSE has actually held up pretty well this year so far, but is the one with the bearish set up on the 2h chart. Whereas the 2h chart for the S&P500 and Dax40 are both bullish with support at 4197 and 14130 respectively. As such should those dip down to those levels then we could see a bounce on them, and that may well help the FTSE pull back up.

Above the 7330 level then 7350 is the daily resistance level and just above the key fib for today so should it overshot then keep and eye on this area. Above this then 7400 is the 200ema on the 30m and with R1 at 7427 we may well see bulls from yesterday start to bank in this area if it were to get that high. Seems a bit of a big ask to get much past 7400 at the moment though. Not many will want to hold over the weekend just in case things escalate.

Support wise we have decent looking support at 7225 to start with as we have the green coral here on the 30m and the key fib for today. A break of this though and we will likely drop down to retest yesterdays low at 7175 and in fact we have the bottom of the 20d Raff now at 7165 as well to lend some support to this area. Below this then 7056 is the next key level of note, with the round number 7000 below that.

If Kyiv falls today and the fighting abates then we may well see markets pause for thought from any aggressive selling as we await the next move.

So, again be slightly cautious and also usual Friday shenanigans likely to play out but watching 7330 and 7400 for resistance; 7225 and 7175 for support.

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates