Quote from Nick on 25th March 2021, 10:33 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 25th March 2021

Heavyweights BP and Royal Dutch Shell gained on the oil rise yesterday, adding 5.8p to 301.55p and 27p to £14.63 respectively. BP’s gains come despite Moody’s downgrading the oil giant from its highest rating. The gains helped to lift London’s markets higher after a shaky start to the week, with the benchmark FTSE 100 adding 13.7 points to 6,712.89 and the FTSE 250 closing up 70.78 points to 21,402.54.

Energy and mining stocks helped lead the benchmark after data showed a better-than-expected rebound in British business activity in March with services increasing at the fastest rate since August.

Cows, Oil, Crops: Stuck

A massive container ship is still blocking the Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest waterways. Tugs and diggers have so far failed to dislodge the 200,000-ton Ever Given, increasing the chances of prolonged delays for ships carrying everything from live animals to liquefied natural gas. Ships using the Suez typically handle something like 10% of seaborne trade. Dredgers are still trying to loosen the vessel before any attempt to pull it out, the ship’s manager said. The struggle to dislodge it is now turning the world’s attention to the work of SMIT Salvage, a legendary Dutch firm whose employees parachute themselves from one ship wreckage to the next, often saving vessels during violent storms.

Subdued Stocks

Asia stocks are likely to be subdued after rotation out of companies that benefited from the pandemic dragged down U.S. equities. Futures edged up in Japan and were lower in Australia and Hong Kong. Oil jumped as crews struggled to unblock the Suez Canal. The dollar strengthened. Decent demand at an auction of five-year Treasury notes helped keep U.S. yields steady, a relief after last month’s disastrous seven-year auction sparked a global selloff in bonds. Bitcoin has reversed the gains it made following Tesla Chief Musk’s tweet that the firm’s cars can be purchased with the cryptocurrency. It was around $54,000 in early Asia trading.[Bloomberg]

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks fluctuated and U.S. futures ticked higher Thursday as traders assessed the economic rebound from the health crisis. Oil pared a rally sparked by shipping disruption after a container vessel blocked the Suez Canal.

Japan’s shares outperformed and China swung between gains and losses. Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. struggled after U.S. regulators revived threats to remove China’s largest corporations from their bourses. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up after a rotation into cyclicals weighed on the tech gauge overnight. European contracts fell. The dollar was steady.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell back below $60 a barrel, having added more than 5% Wednesday. Tugs and diggers are trying to dislodge the ship that ran aground in this critical waterway for global trade.

Investors will be on the lookout for the seven-year Treasury auction in U.S. hours, as poor demand for this maturity at last month’s sale triggered a spike in yields. The 10-year benchmark rate crept higher in Asia trade.

Investors are mulling which sectors of the stock market are best-placed to benefit from faster growth, while monitoring the risks of higher inflation. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell balanced their positive assessments of the recovery with reminders that it still has a long way to go in a second day of Congressional testimony.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Nice drop off the 6720 level last night just before the dividend, and the bulls have defended overnight to get the price back above (just) 6700. We may well see a rise and dip play out again today as we have the key fib at 6736 and just above the R1 level at 6725. That area is also just above the high from yesterday and matches Monday's high, so there is resistance in this area.

If the bulls were to break above the 6735 level then a rise towards R2 at 6760 would likely play out and we also have the top of the 10d Raff Chanel here at 6771 - as such a short in this area looks to be worth a go if seen.

For the bears, they will need to break below the 6668 level which is currently 2 hour support. If they did manage that then a drop down to the fib at 6645 and the daily support at 6630 is likely, an area that I am sure the bulls will want to defend, as its the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel. 6650 has also held well recently, and is S1 for today, so its worth keeping an eye on these support levels for reactions.

The S&P has started dipping below the 3900 level, and the bears are probing the lower supports. A break of the 3885 level will likely lead to a more prolonged slide, as the 10 day channel is now heading down. 3900 is also the 25ema on the daily chart, and it does look like the bulls are weakening. 3908 is also 2h resistance now, as following the drop of 3940 yesterday that timeframe has gone bearish.

So looking at a rise and dip to play out again today. Watch the 6735 and 6760 levels for resistance, 6670 and 6630 as support. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

• Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
• Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
• Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

[yikes-mailchimp form="4"]