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Start of month but weak Asian session | 7005 6990 6968 support | 7048 7070 7099 resistance

FTSE 100 Analysis | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook

The S&P 500 closed the month and quarter out with its worst performance since the start of the pandemic.

The FTSE 100 closed lower yesterday, weighed down by a stronger pound. The blue-chip index slipped 0.3pc to 7,086 points, having gained as much as 0.7pc earlier in the day.

British American Tobacco and British Airways owner IAG were the biggest fallers, dropping 4.8pc and 4.4pc respectively. This offset gains for miners including Evraz, Anglo American and Fresnillo, which all rose in line with higher iron ore prices.

The domestically-focused FTSE 250 fell 0.1pc, with travel and leisure stocks leading declines, recording its worst monthly performance since March 2020.

Meanwhile oil, which reversed earlier losses, managed to push higher. Oil rose as much as 1.3pc in the afternoon, having fallen as much as 2.3pc earlier in the day. The rebound follows reports that China has ordered its state-owned energy companies to secure supplies after the country's factory sector contracted for the first time since the pandemic.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pressed ahead with plans for a vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill, even though progressive Democrats said they have the numbers to stall it until the Senate agrees on a more expansive tax and spending package. New York Representative Jamaal Bowman said more than 50 members of the progressive group would vote against the infrastructure bill. A defeat wouldn’t kill the infrastructure legislation, but it would delay progress on Biden’s two-pronged economic agenda. Meanwhile, Congress passed stopgap spending legislation to avert a U.S. federal government shutdown at midnight, which was later signed by Biden. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called on Congress to eliminate the debt ceiling altogether.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st October 2021

Well that was a bit bearish overnight! Explains the kick up on gold mid afternoon yesterday with a nice bit of front running! We may well see a bit more index weakness early October and if the seasonal pattern plays out, then a kick up after that towards the year end. The S&P500 is getting near to the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel now at 4268 and we may well see a hold and bounce from here. The bottom of the 10 day Raff on the FTSE100 is at 6970 and whilst I dont think we will get that low today, its worth bearing in mind.

We may well get an initial kick up as we shake off the weak Asian session, and the new month money flows in. A climb on the FTSE towards the red 30m coral at 7088 currently (but falling) could coincide also with a test of the 200ema (30m) at 7072. And that was the support that saw a reaction yesterday, so could become resistance to start with today.

On the other hand we may well get a dip and rise play out and the support level of 7002 with S2 here and the round number should see a reaction. We also have the recent low at 7010 to lend some weight to a bounce at this area.

With the overnight weakness and the failure to hold 7070 yesterday the 2h chart has gone bearish now too, with key resistance at the 7085 level from both the Hull and the coral. As such this lends weight to this area being resistance as per the 7075ish backtest.

Above the 7085 level then the 7099 daily pivot is next up and then, probably an unreachable, 7140 where we have the key fib and R1. Not sure the bulls will have that much strength today ahead of the weekend.

A break of 7000 and then 6970 as mentioned for the 10d Raff, and then S3 below that at 6942. That said, I think the bulls are defending well and keeping the price above 7000 bodes well. The S&P coming into key support at the 4268 Raff channel also bodes well. Time will tell if this is just the seasonal September/early October weakness but its certainly a good time to get all the bad news out there, and there is certainly a lot! The French kicking off the fishing wars again and threatening to blockade the tunnel being the latest, while fuel/energy/covid/supply chains/employment/inflation/winter of discontent/etc etc rumbles on!

So, could be a choppy day, usual Friday caveat applies to be a bit more cautious, but watch the 7000 and 6970 support levels, 7070/7080 and 7100 as resistance. Good luck today and have a great weekend.

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